NBA Daily Plays: January 16th, 2014
3 games taking place today, with one tipping off early in London. The three game slate is always a challenge, but it can be even more daunting when you have one taking place four hours before anything else starts. For the plays today, there’s one guy you have to have and I’ll give you an early hint, it’s not J.R. Smith.
Point Guards
- Jeremy Lin vs. OKC – Lin never makes you feel that good about rostering him, but he’s topped 25 fantasy points in each of his last three games and is the only point guard with a good matchup tonight. The Thunder are allowing the 9th most FPPG to opposing point guards over the last 15 days, all of that coming with Reggie Jackson at the point. Jackson has struggled defensively all season and Lin could definitely take advantage of that on Thursday.
- Shaun Livingston vs. ATL – On a night where the PG options are this bad, you might as well just punt the position and take the cheapest option pretty much across the board. Livingston is still reasonably priced on most sites and had right around 25 fantasy points the last time these two teams played back on January 6th. The only other mid to low-priced option I would really consider for cash games on Thursday is George Hill, but I still think Livingston has better value and a higher ceiling than Hill pretty much across the board.
Shooting Guards
- Lance Stephenson vs. NYK – The Knicks have really struggled against SGs, ranking 28th over the last 15 days. Stephenson, when healthy, has been one of the most consistent players all season at the SG slot and is usually a lock for 30 fantasy points. He’s middle of the pack in terms of pricing across the industry and can stuff the stat sheet in all categories, which minimizes his downside but also leaves the door open for some really big performances when he has his shot going.
- Jeremy Lamb vs. HOU – His final stat lines haven’t been staggering, but he’s played over 25 minutes in each of his last four games and the Rockets have been abysmal against shooting guards, allowing the 2nd most FPPG over their last 15 days. Lamb won’t blow you out of the water with a monster performance, but he’s a safe bet for 20 FP at a cheap price point on Thursday.
- Joe Johnson vs. ATL – Johnson’s splits with and without Deron Williams are pretty mind-boggling:
Johnson w/ Williams – 12.88 PPG, 3.06 RPG, 2.19 APG, 1.44 TOPG, 19.78 FPPG
Johnson w/o Williams – 17.33 PPG, 3.33 RPG, 3.05 APG, 1.1 TOPG, 26.32 FPPG
For some reason, he just really doesn’t like having Deron on the court with him, and with Williams not even traveling to London for the afternoon game on Thursday, Johnson’s value skyrockets. It also doesn’t hurt that he’s playing his former team.
Small Forwards
- Kevin Durant vs. HOU – I feel horrible about putting Durant here, since he’s in play every night regardless of matchup, but on a short slate he just looks like the guy you have to take. He’s expensive, but you can skimp elsewhere as he’s the safest bet for a huge game and the only real concern is that his wrist isn’t 100%. But he still scored 37 points against the Grizzlies, which marked his 4th straight game with 30 or more points.
- Paul Pierce vs. ATL – Listing 3 Nets players here has me sick to my stomach but Pierce has been much improved over his last 8 games, posting 30+ FP in 4 of those 8 and 25+ FP in 7 of those 8. He had a really balanced stat line last time out vs. ATL, going for 9 points, 4 rebounds, 3 assists and 5 blocks + steals and while his days of scoring baskets in bunches are past him, he’s learning how to contribute without being the go to scorer.
Power Forwards
- Serge Ibaka vs. HOU – The over/under in this game is 14 points higher than any other on the night, so starting your lineups out with a heavy dose of HOU/OKC is probably a good starting point. Ibaka fell one rebound shy of his 3rd double-double in four games on Tuesday against the Grizzlies, and will likely look to avenge his miserable performance last time these two teams met. It’s also a great sign that he has 10 blocks over his last three games.
- Terrence Jones vs. OKC – Flip the coin and you’ll find Jones who has been terrific over his last 3 games. After a 25 point, 8 rebound, 6 block performance on Wednesday, Jones now has 35 or more fantasy points in each of his last three games, with 45 or more in 2 of those three. He has 16 blocks + steals in that span as well. He played just 22 minutes the last time these two teams met in OKC, but he’s been significantly better at home all year long. He’s averaging 12 points and 8 rebounds at home for 30 fantasy points compared to 8 points and 6.7 rebounds for just 21 FP on the road.
Centers
- Kevin Garnett vs. ATL – He’s the 4th Nets player I’ll list here, but to be honest they are all pretty underpriced and the team has been playing much better over the past couple of weeks. A huge factor in that has been Garnett, who has 28 and 32 fantasy points in his last two games. He sat out Saturday because of the 2OT contest on Friday night, but he should be back in the lineup tonight against an ATL defense allowing the 6th most FPPG to Centers over the last 15 days.
- Pero Antic vs. BKN – This is another play based on pure value, as the Nets are actually pretty solid inside with KG anchoring the interior D. Antic is expected to start Thursday’s game in London and was hit or miss in his recent starts with Horford out. He also has a little added value on DK and DD where they award the 3-pointer bonus. Mike Scott is another interesting value big man for Atlanta today as well.