NBA Daily Punts: January 31st, 2014
When I start building my lineups, I like to look for a few low salary options that should safely reach value. On most days, there will be a few injuries that open up opportunities for players who don’t typically see big minutes. A change in a teams rotation or a particular match-up can also be the cause of a value play emerging. As we all know, NBA injury news continues to pour in as the day moves along and is not usually made official until close to tip-off, so be sure to sign up for our NBA alerts and check out the RotoGrinders Twitter Feed leading up to roster lock.
I’m going to stick with the new format, separating the three major sites (FD, DS, DK) into their own sections, instead of listing players by position. While the analysis for each player won’t be as heavy, I’ll get into some site-specific plays that I may not have listed in the prior format. Based on comments the last few days, it seems like people prefer this format over the prior setup, but any feedback is still appreciated! I’ve also added a section at the end of each site breakdown to include players whose value hinges on injury news that has yet to break as of this writing. If you’d like to see me include a site other then FD, DS and DK, post in the comments and I’ll try to include some plays for that site going forward.
In order to be considered a “punt,” a player must meet Bargain Bin Baller status on either FanDuel ($5500), DraftStreet ($9500) or DraftKings ($4500).
FanDuel
Jose Calderon – While his upside might not be too high for his $5,500 price tag, Calderon is in play for cash games thanks to a nice match-up at home against the Kings. Sacramento is 20th against the point guard spot over the last two weeks, and they’re even worse against the position on the season (26th). He’s not a guy I’d use in a GPP, but if you’re looking for 25-30 FP’s, Calderon should be able to get the job done.
Kyle Korver – The former Sixer returns to the town where he played the first 4 1/2 seasons of his career. He was a fan favorite in Philly thanks to being one of the top 3-point shooters in the game, and he should have ample opportunity to show off his range tonight. The 76ers are one of the worst teams in the NBA at defending the three-ball, and are just downright terrible at defending anything. He’s a pretty nice play at SG tonight for $5,100.
Ramon Sessions – Sessions is priced $200 above the BBB cutoff at $5,700, but he’ll be a very popular play if Kemba Walker isn’t able to return tonight. There have been some rumblings that Walker will try to return Friday night, but he’s still considered questionable and I could definitely see the Bobcats being cautious with Kemba and letting him get another night of rest before the second game of their B2B Saturday in Phoenix. If he sits tonight, Sessions has a dream match-up with the LA back-court and would make a great play for under $6K. Update – Kemba Walker has been ruled out of tonight’s game, so Sessions is the top PG option until you get up to Brandon Knight at $6500. He’ll be in a good deal of my cash game action tonight.
Evan Fournier – He went off Wednesday night with Ty Lawson out and Nate Robinson leaving after just six minutes on the court, finishing with 19 points, 6 dimes and 5 boards as the primary ball-handler. Robinson has already been ruled out, and Lawson is listed as a game-time decision at the time of this writing. Fournier should pick up a good chunk of the minutes from the Nate Robinson injury, and would be in must-play territory if Lawson were to sit out again.
DeMarre Carroll – You’ll notice quite a few Hawks in this write-up due to the match-up with Philly, but I feel more comfortable with Carroll then anyone not named Paul Millsap on this team. He plays big minutes and has been a consistent fantasy contributor, and the Sixers are ranked dead last at defending the SF position on the season (27th over the last 15 days). Carroll will be in most of my FanDuel lineups this evening and is my top mid-range option at SF for cash games.
Gustavo Ayon – With Pero Antic still out of action, Ayon will draw another start tonight and should play somewhere between 24-30 minutes against the Philly front-court, which should be more then enough to pay off his $3,900 price tag. The Sixers are terrible at defending big men, and Ayon could approach a double-double without crossing the 30 minute mark.
Jae Crowder – Shawn Marion has been ruled out for tonight’s game with Sacramento, and Jae Crowder will start in his place. Crowder is priced at the bare minimum at SF tonight, which is the only reason I’m really considering him here. While he is in for a big increase in minutes, he generally doesn’t do all that much with his playing time. He is the 5th option on offense when he’s out there and he rarely finds the ball in his hands outside of a fast break chance or on open 3-point looks. Don’t count on double digit NBA points, but he could rack up a few blocks/steals to go with a few boards. I know that’s not encouraging, but this is why he’s priced at $3,500 to begin with.
Vince Carter – With Marion out, Carter could be a sneaky GPP play for $5,000 tonight. Sacramento has struggled with shooting guards all season long, and has given up some huge games to the position this season. He’ll probably be on the floor with Calderon and Monta a little more then usual, so he’s more of a SF, but the Kings defense isn’t all that great at any position. While Rudy Gay is a pretty good on-ball defender, I’m not sure how much of him Carter will actually see tonight.
Ersan Ilyasova – Ersan has posted three consecutive games with at least 29.1 FD points, which is an amazing show of consistency for him. I’m cautiously optimistic that he can make it four straight against Orlando tonight, since he’s been getting a steady diet of shot attempts and rebounds over that span. Like any member of Larry Drew’s squad, he’s hard to trust in cash games for $5200, but he certainly possesses upside for that price. The Magic are 22nd against the PF spot over the last 15 days and are 26th against the position on the season.
Jonas Valanciunas – He’s played at least 32 minutes in his last three games, which is a great sign for the second-year big man. The big concern with him lately has been inconsistent playing time, but he’s played well with extended run over the past three games, posting a double-double and racking up at least 30.9 FD points in all three. Denver is 26th against centers over the past 15 days, and as long as he doesn’t end up in Dwayne Casey’s doghouse early in the game, he should make it four straight double-doubles tonight. J-Val is my favorite value center of the evening.
Larry Sanders – I’m concerned with the number of Bucks I’ve listed thus far, but I guess it has a lot to do with their opponent. The Magic have been awful against centers this season, and although they now have Nikola Vucevic back, they will still struggle to defend the paint. Sanders won’t be in any of my cash game lineups, but he’s a very viable GPP option for $5,100.
Timofey Mozgov – If Valanciunas has his way with the Nuggets starting front-court early, Brian Shaw could opt to use a little more Mozgov to help defend the interior. The Nuggets have been trying to get him more involved lately, and he’s beginning to see a bigger compliment of minutes off the bench. Mozgov can be a fantasy point per minute kind of player when he’s on, so he doesn’t need a ton of run to pay off his $4,400 price tag. I’d rather roll with Valanciunas, but if you have to go cheap in a GPP, you can do much worse then big Timofey.
If/Then
| If Player Is Out | Then Consider This Replacement |
|---|---|
| If Jeff Teague is out | Then consider Shelvin Mack for $4,500 |
| If Ty Lawson is out | Then consider Evan Fournier for $3,800 |
| If DeMarcus Cousins is out | Then consider Jason Thompson for $4,900 |
| If DeMar DeRozan is out | Then consider Greivis Vasquez and Terrence Ross for $4,200 and $5,000 |
DraftKings
Giannis Antetokounmpo – The Bucks are considering rolling out a three guard set of Brandon Knight, Nate Wolters and Alphabet to match-up with the Magic, which would move Khris Middleton to the bench. Giannis has actually played better at SG so far this season, but I still think he’s in a nice spot against a Magic team that struggles with basically every position on the floor. If he can stay out of foul trouble, Giannis will pay off his $3,900 price tag. I’m more likely to roster him in a GPP, but he’s not a bad roster filler in a cash game for that price.
Evan Fournier – If Lawson were to sit out again, he’d basically become a must play for this price ($3,300). He was left with the majority of the time at PG when Lawson and Nate Robinson weren’t in action on Wednesday, and he topped 40 DK points in 38 minutes. Even if Lawson plays, he’ll still pick up a good chunk of the minutes left behind by the injured Nate Robinson.
DeMarre Carroll – I’d be willing to play him at this price in a lot of match-ups, so why wouldn’t I roll him out against Philly. He’ll have a nice opportunity to rack up steals against a team that turns the ball over more then any other team in the league (Golden State is the 2nd worst, which I thought was pretty surprising). Carroll is a very safe cash game play and should end up around the 30 FP mark tonight.
Josh McRoberts – This play is more about the price then anything else, as McBob seems to always be underpriced on DK. He’s a little hard to stomach sometimes since he can have stretches where he’s basically invisible on the court, but he has a solid match-up with the Laker front-court and I think he pays off his $4,300 salary against the team ranked dead last against PF’s on the season (20th over the past two weeks).
Gustavo Ayon – I love the price on Ayon tonight ($3,100) in a great match-up with the Philly front-court. The Sixers are ranked 29th against centers both on the season and over the last 15 days, and I don’t expect that ranking to improve much as the season wears on. Ayon should play somewhere between 25-30 minutes, and if he can get to 25 FP’s, he’d be more then worth it for the price.
Jae Crowder – He’s priced at $3,000 on DraftKings tonight, so he’ll probably be one of the more popular punts of the day. Crowder disappears on the offensive end quite often, and never has any plays run for him, so he’s dependent on hustle/peripheral stats for his fantasy success. With that said, it’s still hard to argue with rolling him out there due to the price and expected playing time.
Mike Scott – It’s the Sixers. Everyone is in play. This type of up-tempo game plays into Scott’s strengths, so I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see him pay off his $3,700 price tag. He’s not a guy that consistently plays 25+ minutes, but he shouldn’t need a ton of court time to meet value tonight.
If/Then
| If Player Is Out | Then Consider This Replacement |
|---|---|
| If Jeff Teague is out | Then consider Shelvin Mack for $4,200 |
| If Jeff Teague is out | Then consider Louis Williams for $3,900 |
| If Ty Lawson is out | Then consider Evan Fournier for $3,300 |
| If Ty Lawson is out | Then consider Randy Foye for $4,700 |
| If DeMarcus Cousins is out | Then consider Jason Thompson for $4,700 |
DraftStreet
Jeff Teague – His status is still very much up in the air tonight, but if he plays, how can you not consider him for under $10K? Unless he’s on a strict minutes limit, he’ll be hard to avoid even considering how poorly he was playing before he began to miss time. If he suits up tonight, I’ll have a tough time not having exposure to him against the Philly back-court.
Jose Calderon – Calderon has a little more upside at this price ($9,869) then he does on FanDuel, and I like him here as a cash game play as well. There doesn’t seem to be a ton of value on DraftStreet tonight, which is to be expected, so building a well-rounded lineup might be the way to go tonight. Calderon is still considered a cap-saver at under $10K, and I’m expecting somewhere around 20-25 FP’s tonight.
Giannis Antetokounmpo – He’s hard to ignore for just $7,826. While he’s burned most of us in the past, this could be an opportunity for the Alphabet to put up one of his bigger games. He’d be a much more valuable fantasy asset if he didn’t seem so hesitant to shoot/get to the basket, but he’s been in pass first mode lately and just doesn’t look all that comfortable with the ball in his hands. I still love his long-term upside, but he’s hard to trust right now on a nightly basis, which makes him more of a GPP option tonight.
Evan Fournier – I wouldn’t pay this price if Lawson plays, and there is a good chance we won’t get word on his status until after 7:00 EST roster lock (this game starts at 9:00 EST). Fournier should pick up a few extra minutes with Nate Robinson on the shelf, but it’ll be a gamble to pay for him here without news on Lawson. I’ll throw him in a few GPP lineups if we don’t have news in order to have some exposure, but he’d be in all my lineups if we got word that Lawson was out.
Vince Carter – He’ll benefit from the Shawn Marion injury, and he steps into a nice match-up with the Kings tonight. Sacramento has been bad against both shooting guards and small forwards lately, so regardless of which spot he’s in, he’ll have a plus match-up, since I doubt he sees a ton of Rudy Gay on defense. He’s crossed the 21.75 FP mark on DS in his last three games, and I expect him to do that again tonight.
Ersan Ilyasova – Ersan apparently injured his leg recently and missed practice yesterday, but he’s expected to play tonight and comes into a nice match-up against the Magic front-court. While it’s tough to predict what Larry Drew will do night in and night out, Ersan has been playing well over his past three games. He’s been a focal point of the offense over that span, attempting at least 15 shots in each game, and crossing the 21 FP mark in all three. For just $8,545, I’m cautiously optimistic that he pays off his salary tonight.
Jae Crowder – For $5,390, he’ll be one of the most popular punts of the day on DraftStreet. Like I said in his FD analysis, Crowder is not a part of the Dallas offense, and his fantasy success is dependent on hustle stats, so he’s still a bit risky even for this price. However, it’s hard to argue with a starter against the Kings that should play around 30 minutes (if not more) for $5K.
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist – I have a hard time trusting him, but he’s priced at just $6,552 and gets a match-up with the fast-paced Lakers. The Bobcats typically play at a slow pace, but they’ll see a few extra possessions thanks to the opponents style of play. Expect somewhere around 25-27 minutes for MKG, and I wouldn’t expect more then 16-20 FP’s, which wouldn’t be so bad considering the price.
Jonas Valanciunas – Valanciunas has finally seen extended time in three consecutive games, playing no fewer then 32 minutes, which is a pretty big accomplishment for him. He’s scored at least 29 FP’s in his past three, and considering he’s still priced right around $10K, J-Val is one of my favorite center options of the evening. He’ll get to face off with the defensively challenged Nuggets front-court.