NBA Daily Punts: March 7, 2014
Happy Friday Grinders! I had a tough time settling on one player per position for tonight’s games, so I’m going back to the format from a few weeks ago where I’ll list out several potential value plays at both FanDuel and DraftKings. I had a hard time finding anything appealing on DraftStreet in terms of punt plays, so it might be a good night to go with a more balanced approach on DS.
In order to be considered a “punt,” a player must meet Bargain Bin Baller status on either FanDuel ($5500), DraftStreet ($9500) or DraftKings ($4500).
FanDuel
Eric Gordon – Gordon lit up the Lakers for 28 points and 6 assists on Tuesday night, but that’s certainly not a justifiable reason to roster him tonight. Instead, his price is still sitting at a very reasonable level ($5,100) and he steps into another nice match-up tonight with the Bucks. They haven’t been bad against the SG spot lately but Gordon dropped 21 and 6 against them in Milwaukee about three weeks ago, and he gets to do battle on his home court tonight. Even though neither team plays at a very high pace, neither team is good defensively and I’ll certainly have exposure to The Brow and Tyreke Evans in addition to Gordon.
Alec Burks – The Knicks have struggled against the SG spot all year long and haven’t gotten any better recently, so Burks should be in a nice spot as a GPP play tonight. Burks is a much better pure scorer then either Trey Burke or Gordon Hayward, which has a lot to do with why he plays such heavy minutes off the bench. He’s good for about 30 minutes a night but has seen at least 37 minutes in two of the last three games, and if he can cross the 35 minute mark tonight, I think he exceeds value at $5,300. He’s not a guy I target in cash games too often, but I like the upside for him tonight in tournaments.
Kent Bazemore – Xavier Henry return has not eaten into his minutes or production, and his price is still at a reasonable level ($5,200). I’d have been shocked if you told me a month ago that I’d be playing Kent Bazemore on a nightly basis, but it’s amazing what a trade to the lowly Lakers can do for a player’s value nowadays. Denver is almost as disinterested in defense as the Lakers are, so this game will without a doubt be a popular target for DFS players tonight. Bazemore is a nice way to get some cheap exposure if you can’t pay up for Lawson or Pau. He’s also pretty much blowout proof, as we saw last night when he played a heavy dose of 2nd half minutes.
Jerryd Bayless – Bayless is one of the lone healthy NBA-caliber guards on the Celtics roster, so he should be in for big minutes as long as this game stays close. He only played 22 minutes in Wednesday’s game against the Warriors since the game got out of hand quick, but I don’t see the same thing happening against the Nets (although the Nets do find themselves in wayyyy too many blowouts). The $4,200 price tag still seems like somewhat of a bargain with Bradley and Wallace out of action.
Wesley Johnson – He’s a guy that absolutely needs big minutes in order to produce worthwhile fantasy totals, and luckily for him he doesn’t currently have anyone standing in the way of his playing time. Mike D’Antoni has been throwing out some unorthodox (smaller) lineups lately now that Ryan Kelly and Jordan Hill seem to have fallen out of favor, and if Wes sees 35+ minutes of run against the Nuggets, he should be able to exceed 30 FP’s in this match-up. After last night’s embarrassing performance, Johnson should be in for a nice bounce back game tonight.
Kyle Singler – Despite his defensive shortcomings, Singler is still playing big minutes for Detroit and with that kind of playing time, he makes a pretty nice SF punt on a site that requires you to roster two of them. This game should be very fast paced and will probably end up as one of the highest scoring affairs of the night, so if nothing else Singler provides cheap exposure to a game that should be full of fantasy goodness. I actually like Singler more as a cash game play because his ceiling isn’t all that high, but the playing time keeps his floor at a nice level considering the price.
Andray Blatche – Kevin Garnett has already been ruled out for tonight’s game, which gives Blatche a decent boost in value. Mason Plumlee is still the starter but he still struggles to hit the 20 minute mark in that role, which on occasion leaves Blatche with 30+ minutes of playing time. Since it’s so hard to predict what his minutes will look like on a nightly basis, Blatche is a GPP-only option for me, but he has by far the highest upside of any of the possible PF punts tonight in a match-up with the Celtics front-court.
Amar’e Stoudemire – If he gets another start tonight, he’s a solid cash game punt play at $4,300. He’s started in both of the Knicks last two games, but they were facing big, potent front-courts in both of those match-ups. Tonight’s match-up with the Jazz does not fit that mold, so it’s anyone’s guess what Mike Woodson will do with his starting five. If he starts, I’ll have a nice amount of exposure to him in a plus match-up, but I’ll be fading him if he comes off the bench.
DraftKings
Kent Bazemore – Bazemore is $100 above the BBB cut-off, but I still think he makes a nice play at this price tonight against Denver. This match-up should be one of the most fantasy friendly games of the night, and Bazemore still seems to be heavily entrenched in Mike D’Antoni’s rotation. Like I said in his FD analysis, Bazemore is a cheap way to get exposure to this game if you can’t pay up for Lawson or Gasol.
Jerryd Bayless – Bayless also sits at $4,200 on DraftKings, and with both Avery Bradley and Gerald Wallace out of action, he should be in for all the minutes he can handle as long as this one stays close. The match-up isn’t ideal, but I think he pays off this number against the Nets tonight.
Kyle Singler – As long as he is consistently playing big minutes, Singler is a nice cash game punt at either shooting guard or small forward. The Detroit/Minnesota game should be a popular target for DFS players tonight and I like to take my value plays from fast-paced, high-scoring games.
Chris Douglas-Roberts – Gerald Henderson will not play tonight, and Steve Clifford started CDR in the last game in order to keep Gary Neal in his bench role. Douglas-Roberts put up 12 points, 3 steals and 3 assists in 29 minutes against the Pacers on Wednesday, and if he draws another start tonight I’d expect him to approach the 20 FP mark, which is a nice total from a minimum priced player. Tonight’s match-up with the Cavs is also much better then what he dealt with against Lance Stephenson and the Pacers.
Amar’e Stoudemire – For me, it’s all about whether or not he gets the start tonight. I can see Woodson going in a different direction against the Jazz, who don’t boast the front-court that Detroit or Minnesota does, but I’m hoping he rolls out the same starting five again. Amar’e is sitting at $4,300 on DK and if he starts, that’s a very fair price for him. The Jazz have been below-average against the PF position recently (23rd over the last 15 days), so I’m expecting Amar’e to once again approach the 30 FP mark.