NBA DFS Core Plays LIVE: Thursday, March 2nd
Andy Means (meansy53), a former Duke basketball walk-on, will be bringing Premium subscribers his top NBA DFS plays to build around on Mondays, Wednesdays, and Fridays. Everyone’s favorite, Notorious, will be guiding you on Tuesdays and Thursdays. And on weekends, the GPP maestro you all know and love, STLCards, takes the reins.
GENERAL SLATE THOUGHTS
10:00 AM ET: Good morning everyone and happy Thursday! We only have four games on the schedule tonight and as we will talk about here in a bit, there’s really only one that stands out as a favorable game environment for fantasy production. The Sixers are the only team that is playing in the second half of a back-to-back, but we still have plenty of injuries to monitor as we get closer to lineup lock. Let’s take a quick look at each of the eight teams in action tonight:
Toronto: The Raptors have quietly won eight of their last 10 games and can pull back to .500 on the season with a win tonight. They have struggled a bit on the road (11-19), but are facing a Wizards team that seems to be headed in the wrong direction. This is a mediocre matchup for fantasy production, as Washington is ranked close to league average in pace and defensive rating. Being at full strength and draws a mediocre matchup on the road typically wouldn’t be a spot to load up on for DFS, but there are only so many options on a small slate. There aren’t any must plays here, but Pascal Siakam ($9,000) and Jakob Poeltl ($6,200) are slightly underpriced on DraftKings, while Fred VanVleet is only $8,200 on FanDuel.
Washington: The Wizards have lost six of their last 10 games and now have a negative point differential on the season. They will have Kristaps Porzingis back in the lineup tonight, but Monte Morris has already been ruled out. Delon Wright is the likely spot starter, but the Wizards could always opt to play Bradley Beal at point guard and slide Deni Avdija into the starting lineup. A matchup against the Raptors isn’t exactly ideal, as Toronto is ranked 25th in pace and 14th in defensive rating this season. Assuming he starts, Wright is an interesting salary saver at PG/SG, while Beal, Porzingis, Avdija, and Kyle Kuzma are best suited as tournament targets.
Philadelphia: The Sixers didn’t have Joel Embiid in the lineup last night, yet they were still able to go on the road and blowout the Heat in Miami. Embiid’s availability is obviously going to change the landscape of tonight’s slate. In his absence last night, Tyrese Maxey started and put up 47 fantasy points in 37 minutes of action. The Mavericks are not efficient on the defensive end of the floor and they have picked up their pace since acquiring Kyrie Irving, so this is a sneaky-good matchup for DFS. Based on the CourtIQ for the Sixers with Embiid off the floor, here are some players that would benefit if he’s ruled out again:
- Tobias Harris: +4.2% usage and +0.16 FP/min
- James Harden: +5.3% usage and +0.13 FP/min
- De’Anthony Melton: +4.6% usage and +0.11 FP/min
- Tyrese Maxey: +3.2% usage and +0.11 FP/min
Dallas: The Mavericks have lost two games in a row and six of their last 10 outings. It’s going to take some time for this new roster to gel, but there’s one problem — we don’t have a lot of time until the playoffs start. Tonight they host the Sixers, who are ranked 26th in pace and seventh in defensive rating. The back-to-back for Philadelphia does help the matchup a little, as Dallas has an implied total that is 2.5 points above their season average. Luka Doncic is really the only standout DFS target here, but Kyrie Irving does make a nice pivot in large-field tournaments.
Indiana: The Pacers need to right the ship sooner rather than later if they want to stick around for the postseason. They have really struggled over the last five weeks and are now in 12th place in the Eastern Conference standings. Luckily, they get to face a Spurs team that has not hidden the fact that they are tanking this season. The Pacers are favorites and have a massive implied total thanks to the fact that the Spurs are one of the worst defensive teams in the league. Myles Turner currently projects as the top target from Indiana, but a lot can change based on the availability of Tyrese Haliburton. Based on the CourtIQ for the Pacers with Haliburton off the floor, here’s who would benefit if he’s ruled out:
- Andrew Nembhard: +3.4% usage and +0.16 FP/min
- Bennedict Mathurin: +3.3% usage and +0.08 FP/min
- T.J. McConnell: +0.9% usage and +0.05 FP/min
San Antonio: The Spurs have been a tough team to predict because they have constantly been on the losing end of blowouts, they haven’t had a consistent rotation, and they have had a bunch of injuries over the last few weeks. Devin Vassell is expected to return to the lineup tonight, but we are still waiting on the availability of Keldon Johnson, Tre Jones, and Malaki Branham. Given a home matchup against the Pacers (ninth in pace, 26th in defensive rating), this is a spot that we will likely want to target, but we’ll have to wait and see who is actually going to be active for the Spurs.
LA Clippers: The Clippers have lost three games in a row and have been a disaster on the defensive end of the floor. They have so much talent on the roster that we all assume they will be great, but something isn’t clicking in Los Angeles at the moment. They’ll look to end their losing streak tonight against the Warriors, who have been incredible at home this season. This is an above-average matchup for fantasy production, but the Clippers don’t project well in the context of tonight’s slate (especially on FanDuel).
Golden State: The Warriors are still without Stephen Curry and Andrew Wiggins, but they’ll look to add another win to their home resume (25-7) tonight against the Clippers. This matchup doesn’t look great on paper if you look at season-long statistics, but Los Angeles is 23rd in defensive rating over the last five games. Klay Thompson, Jordan Poole, and Draymond Green are all worth a look in the final game of the night.
I covered most of the injuries in the team previews, but I always like to compile a list so that you can see all of the injuries at the same time.
Out
Monte Morris
Davis Bertans
Isaiah Roby
Khem Birch
Romeo Langford
Stephen Curry
Andrew Wiggins
Andre Iguodala
Gary Payton
Questionable
Joel Embiid
Tyrese Haliburton
Malaki Branham
Tre Jones
Keldon Johnson
I’ll be back as soon as we get some injury news from Philadelphia (Embiid), San Antonio (Branham, Jones, Johnson), or Indiana (Haliburton).