NBA DFS Ownership Projections and Tournament Plays - Thursday, February 3rd
Hello Grinders. We have a six-game slate on this Thursday night. We’ll go through the top NBA DFS tournament picks on both DraftKings and FanDuel, highlighting key plays using data from our RotoGrinders Premium tools, which you can access here.
The focus of this article is to review early ownership projections and identify where the ownership is likely to be focused on, as well as what are some DraftKings and FanDuel picks we can consider for leverage. Keep in mind that news will trickle in throughout the day, changing ownership projections and the dynamics of this slate. The RotoGrinders projections and ownership numbers will adjust as the day goes on, so you’ll definitely want to consider having access to those tools for the most up-to-date information. With all that in mind, let’s dive in.
NBA DFS Ownership Projections for Today
At first glance, ownership projections are varying widely by site due to the nature of how the sites have priced players differently. On DraftKings, nobody is currently projected for more than 37% ownership and there are only two players projected for more than 30% ownership: Gary Trent and Drew Eubanks. In comparison, on FanDuel, we see early projected ownership has four players with more than 30% ownership including one at 40%: Harrison Barnes, Russell Westbrook, Stephen Curry and Jerami Grant. The takeaway for me here is that depending on which site you’re playing on, the player pool you’re using is going to vastly differ.
Drew Eubanks is a good example of this. As mentioned, Eubanks is projected to be a top owned play on DraftKings at 30%. This makes sense given he’s only $3,300. On FanDuel he’s priced up to $4,500 and only projected for 19%, just 2/3’s of the ownership.
Gary Trent is another good example of this difference. He’s projected for 37% ownership on DraftKings, the highest owned player there at the moment given he’s just $6,100. However on FanDuel, he’s projected for just 19%, half the ownership on DraftKings, given he’s $7,100. As you’ll see below in my FanDuel section, I still consider him a strong tournament play on FanDuel despite the price difference as the small forward position is just relatively weak on this slate.
These projected ownership values will change as the day goes on and news trickles in, but it’s telling at first glance just how different DraftKings and FanDuel set themselves up to be, so just keep that in mind as you consume content and start building your lineups.
Best Tournament Plays
DraftKings
Drew Eubanks – The Spurs will be without Jakob Poeltl and Jock Landale, leaving a giant hole at center they need to fill. This likely leaves Drew Eubanks to spot start at center tonight. Eubanks is only $3,300 on DraftKings and will be needed to help match up against Bam Adebayo. In nine starts this season, Eubanks has averaged 22.3 minutes per game. Our early projections also have him at 22 minutes and 22 fantasy points, which makes sense given Eubanks has averaged 1.02 fantasy points per minute this season. This projection assumes the Spurs will be forced to go small at center, using backups like Thaddeus Young and Juancho Hernangomez when Eubanks is off the court. Given Eubanks is only $3,300 and with room up on his 22 minute projection if the Spurs need more of him against Adebayo, I consider Eubanks a fine tournament option as he offers salary relief with upside.
Reggie Jackson – Jackson was priced in the $6K range just last week on DraftKings, but we’re now seeing him priced all the way down at $5,400, the second lowest he’s been all season DraftKings. It’s odd timing for the price discount, especially since he’s rounding into form having scored 33+ DraftKings points now in back-to-back games. In fact Jackson is tied with Derrick White for the highest Smash Percentage among all point guards on DraftKings, which is a calculation he’s expected to exceed his implied GPP threshold. The Clippers remain without Paul George and have listed Ivica Zubac as questionable, meaning more of the offense could be flowing through Jackson tonight. It’s a plus-matchup too, as Jackson will be facing a Lakers team that just played last night and that allows the 4th most points to opposing teams this season (112.2). There’s upside at this price tag and projection for Jackson on DraftKings if he can continue to see solid minutes.
Anthony Edwards – Edwards has busted in back-to-back games, scoring just 25 and 10 DraftKings points in that span. At the same time, this is someone who has flashed 50 and 60 DraftKings point upside just as of last week. Recency bias is going to be strong here, and our early round of projected ownership has him at just 3% owned on this slate. D’Angelo Russell remains questionable and if he’s out, that’s going to make Edwards an even stronger play. The Small Forward position isn’t very strong on this slate, and that makes Edwards interesting at likely low ownership given he’s burned people now on two consecutive slates. At single-digit ownership, it’s hard not to like in for tournaments knowing he does have the upside to lead his position in fantasy points. The poor recent performances are a concern, but I’m willing to take some shots here in tournaments.
FanDuel
Stephen Curry – Even though he’s going to be popular on FanDuel, I still see merit to going overweight on Stephen Curry in tournaments. His $9,300 price tag on FanDuel is very appealing (compared to $10,400 on DraftKings). This $9,300 price tag is tied for the lowest Curry has been all season, so we’re getting a massive discount here. The matchup against the Kings is also an elite one, as the Kings rank 6th in pace and 29th in defensive efficiency. In fact in their last 10 games, Sacramento has allowed their opponent to score the following point totals: 116, 114, 118, 133 (to the Pistons!), 133, 128, 121, 103, 116 (to the Knicks!) and 101. Also noteworthy is that the Warriors have listed Otto Porter as questionable, meaning they could be without another playmaker and be forced to rely on Curry even more here. Even at potential high ownership, there’s plenty of GPP appeal here for Curry on FanDuel.
Anthony Davis – In my opinion, the center position is the weakest position on this slate. FanDuel is especially tricky because there’s more opportunity cost if you’re punting the positions with someone like Drew Eubanks and he he whiffs. Our early projections have just four centers with a projection of 40 FanDuel points or higher, and nobody higher than Anthony Davis and his 48 FanDuel point projection. Despite owning the highest projection among all centers, he’s priced at just the second highest center behind Karl-Anthony Towns. In fact Anthony Davis has the highest RG Value score among all centers (a calculation of his projection relative to his implied value threshold), meaning even at $9,600 he’s still underpriced for his role. With LeBron James unlikely to play again tonight, the RotoGrinders CourtIQ tool shows that Davis has averaged a team-high 1.39 fantasy points per minute this season. We do need to caveat that Davis played 36 minutes last night so this is the backend of a back-to-back, so make sure you’re monitoring the RotoGrinders news and alerts to ensure Davis is once again in the starting lineup.
Gary Trent – The other position that stands out as particularly weak on this slate is the Small Forward position. In my opinion, this is the position to be willing to take some shots in the dark in large field tournaments on FanDuel given you have to roster two small forwards. On the high end, Jimmy Butler and DeMar DeRozan will be popular as they project as the only two small forwards for 40 or more FanDuel points. There’s a big dropoff after those two, meaning you’re sacrificing a lot in projections if you don’t roster one of Butler or DeRozan.
There’s a group of interesting options below them, such as Mikal Bridges coming off a 51.6 FanDuel point performance, Harrison Barnes at just $5,700 in a revenge game against the Warriors, and even Taurean Prince who has now scored 29, 23.9 and 43.8 FanDuel points in his last three games. The one that has been most consistent lately is Gary Trent, who has now scored at least 40 FanDuel points in five straight games. It’s not a great matchup against the Chicago Bulls, but the appeal with Trent is that the minutes will be there as Coach Nurse continues to deploy a tight rotation and Trent has played at least 34 minutes in that five-game stretch, including back-to-back 40 minute outings. It’s unclear whether he can continue posting such solid fantasy scores, but we know the playing time will be there for him tonight as long as this game remains close. To see where Trent ranks among the small forward options in FanDuel projections, make sure to access the RotoGrinders Premium projections.
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