NBA DFS Ownership Projections and Tournament Plays - Thursday, January 20th
Hello Grinders. We have a short three-game slate on this Thursday night. We’ll go through the top NBA DFS tournament picks on both DraftKings and FanDuel, highlighting key plays using data from our RotoGrinders Premium tools, which you can access here.
The focus of this article is to review early ownership projections and identify where the ownership is likely to be focused on, as well as what are some DraftKings and FanDuel picks we can consider for leverage. Keep in mind that news will trickle in throughout the day, changing ownership projections and the dynamics of this slate. The RotoGrinders projections and ownership numbers will adjust as the day goes on, so you’ll definitely want to consider having access to those tools for the most up-to-date information. With all that in mind, let’s dive in.
NBA DFS Ownership Projections for Today
Because we’re only dealing with a three-game slate tonight, ownership is going to be condensed. Not only that, but Domantas Sabonis suffered an ankle injury late Wednesday night and is likely out tonight, which eliminates one of the best spend-up options. That’s also going to force ownership to condense even more.
Looking for at DraftKings’ ownership projections, we already have four players with projected ownership above 40% – Luka Doncic, Jonathan Kuminga, Jonas Valanciunas and Josh Hart. Doncic stands out as the clear spend-up option on this short slate at just $10,400, which is a $400 discount from his price tag from last night. This $10,400 price tag is also the cheapest he’s been on DraftKings all season. When you factor in this price tag and the short slate, it’s no doubt that projected ownership is heavily on Doncic. The appeal with Jonathan Kuminga is that he’s only $4,300 and has been confirmed the interim starter while Draymond Green is out. Kuminga has only averaged 22.3 minutes per game in his three starts but with the Warriors also down Otto Porter for tonight’s game, there’s a chance we see Kuminga’s minutes start to stretch out. Jonas Valanciunas and Josh Hart are also coming in with heavy projected ownership on DraftKings, and that’s because of their positions. The Center position is not very deep, and Valanciunas’ projection is nearly double the next highest projected center (JaVale McGee). Given the huge gap and positional scarcity here, Jonas Valanciunas is going to be popular. The same can be said of Josh Hart, who is small forward eligible. There’s a group of solid small forward options on DraftKings (Brandon Ingram, Josh Hart, RJ Barrett) but it drops off after that.
Looking at FanDuel next, we see even more condensed projected ownership with six players over 40%, including one person with over 60% projected ownership (Julius Randle). The reason for this is because FanDuel requires two players from each position and less positional flexibility without a Utility spot. As such, we’re seeing chalk being condensed on Julius Randle, Jonas Valanciunas, Josh Hart, Luka Doncic, Kemba Walker and R.J. Barrett. The case for Kemba Walker on FanDuel is very interesting given he’s only $5,500 and found his way back into the starting lineup last game. Walker is far less appealing on DraftKings at $6,100, so it explains why there’s such a big ownership discrepancy between Walker on DraftKings compared to FanDuel. If you want to see the exact projected ownership numbers on these players, you can see it via RotoGrinders Premium access.
Best Tournament Plays
DraftKings
Bismack Biyombo – In an attempt to get a little weird on this slate, I don’t hate the idea of taking some shots on Biyombo in large-field tournaments. The ownership at center on DraftKings will center on (no pun intended) Jonas Valanciunas and JaVale McGee. Every other center on this slate should come at much lower ownership given the nature of this slate. Biyombo is priced the exact same as McGee ($4,000) but projected for half the ownership. McGee should continue to start but last game, we saw Biyombo play the backup center minutes to MCgee in a near split of minutes. Biyombo ended up outscoring McGee in fantasy points, 39 DraftKings points to 18 DraftKings points. For some reason, the Suns decided not to utilize Jalen Smith as their backup center as he only played two minutes and was the odd man out of the rotation. If Biyombo continues to operate as the Suns’ backup center, he has some appeal here given the projected ownership gap between he and JaVale McGee.
Herbert Jones – As mentioned above, Jonathan Kuminga will soak up a lot of ownership at the power forward spot at just $4,300 and now starting for the injured Draymond Green. That makes Herbert Jones an interesting pivot off Kuminga at more than half the projected ownership. Jones is averaging 30.7 minutes per game this season as a starter and has flashed 30+ DraftKings point upside occasionally. It’s not a great environment for Jones against the Knicks, and the Pelicans’ team total is nearly 12 points lower than the team total for the Warriors, but the ownership gap will reflect these factors.
FanDuel
Torrey Craig – Craig is the bare minimum $3,500 on FanDuel and makes for an interesting punt option with Domantas Sabonis likely out tonight. Craig played the entire 4th quarter last night and finished with 31 minutes. The Warriors have been notorious for playing small-ball, like the Lakers last night whom the Pacers played, and this feels like a game where the Pacers could lean on Craig to help fill the void for Sabonis. The Pacers are also without Myles Turner so the most logical solution for the Pacers is to give Goga Bitadze the start, but we’ve seen time and time again that the Warriors can often eliminate a team’s traditional center by their style of play. We’re projecting Craig for 30 minutes right now so our projections team agrees that Bitadze is unlikely to get major run in this game and Craig is likely going to be relied upon tonight in this matchup against Golden State.
Kemba Walker – Walker isn’t going to be sneaky and projects to be the second highest owned point guard on FanDuel. Despite his high projected ownership, I still feel he’s a strong tournament play and one I’d be willing to go overweight on if necessary. Walker missed the last nine games but came back last game and was instantly inserted into the starting lineup, finishing with 29 minutes. Before he was out injured, Walker was absolutely on fire with a four-game stretch where he finished with 39.7, 39.1, 66.8 and 39 FanDuel points. I’m not sure if those days are over, but it seems that Alec Burks and Immanuel Quickley are going to lose minutes moving forward as long as Walker is healthy, and I have no problem being overweight on Walker in tournaments hoping he strikes lightening in a bottle again as a starter.
Image Credit: Imagn