NBA DFS Playoff Primer: Friday, May 12
The NBA postseason is finally upon us. We no longer have to worry about players resting, late scratches, and teams trying to lose. For the next couple of months, we get meaningful basketball game after meaningful basketball game. We have decided to combine the Core Plays and the Grind Down into one all-encompassing article for the NBA playoffs. We will break down each slate, sift through the game flow trackers of prior meetings between teams, cover the notable matchups, and provide our favorite NBA DFS targets.
Happy Friday everyone! There’s no such thing as a sad Friday, especially when we have not one, but two Game 6s to look forward to watching. Before we get into tonight’s games, let’s take a look back at what happened last night. The Celtics went on the road in a tough environment and picked up a win against the Sixers in order to force Game 7 back at home. The Nuggets got off to a quick start against the Suns and never looked back. They are officially the first team to advance to the Conference Finals. The bad luck for Chris Paul-led teams continues in the playoffs.
Game 6: New York Knicks at Miami Heat
- Time: 7:30 PM ET
- Series: Knicks 2 – Heat 3
Previous Matchups
- Game 1: Heat 108 – Knicks 101
- Game 2: Heat 105 – Knicks 111
- Game 3: Knicks 86 – Heat 105
- Game 4: Knicks 101 – Heat 109
- Game 5: Heat 103 – Knicks 112
Notable Injuries
Tyler Herro – Out
Immanuel Quickley – Doubtful
New York Knicks Lineup – DraftKings & FanDuel Salaries
| Player | DK | FD | MIN/G | +/- | FP/G | +/- | USG% | +/- | DK/M | +/- | FD/M | +/- | MIN (P) | DK (P) | DK/$ | FD (P) | FD/$ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Brunson | $9,000 | $9,500 | 35.0 | 6.9 | 39.9 | 9.1 | 27% | 0% | 1.14 | 0.03 | 1.11 | 0.02 | 42 | 44.9 | 4.99 | 43.3 | 4.56 | |
| Quentin Grimes | $5,100 | $5,000 | 29.9 | -0.3 | 21.3 | -5.9 | 14% | -3% | 0.71 | -0.19 | 0.69 | -0.16 | 40 | 24.0 | 4.71 | 23.5 | 4.70 | |
| RJ Barrett | $6,500 | $6,700 | 33.9 | 1.4 | 31.1 | 4.1 | 26% | 3% | 0.92 | 0.08 | 0.87 | 0.06 | 38 | 33.1 | 5.10 | 31.4 | 4.69 | |
| Julius Randle | $8,400 | $7,600 | 35.5 | 2.2 | 46.3 | -7.1 | 29% | -4% | 1.31 | -0.26 | 1.23 | -0.28 | 38 | 41.9 | 4.98 | 39.1 | 5.14 | |
| Mitchell Robinson | $5,000 | $5,500 | 26.9 | -1.3 | 25.9 | -6.6 | 10% | 2% | 0.96 | -0.21 | 1.04 | -0.26 | 26 | 22.8 | 4.56 | 23.9 | 4.35 | |
| Josh Hart | $5,300 | $5,400 | 32.3 | -3.3 | 28.1 | -4.1 | 12% | 4% | 0.87 | -0.04 | 0.87 | -0.09 | 22 | 18.0 | 3.40 | 17.6 | 3.26 | |
| Isaiah Hartenstein | $3,500 | $4,100 | 19.9 | 0.7 | 17.4 | -4.3 | 11% | -8% | 0.87 | -0.24 | 0.92 | -0.19 | 22 | 16.9 | 4.82 | 17.8 | 4.33 | |
| Obi Toppin | $3,300 | $3,800 | 15.7 | -0.5 | 13.8 | -1.6 | 19% | 1% | 0.88 | -0.08 | 0.85 | -0.07 | 10 | 8.6 | 2.60 | 8.3 | 2.19 | |
| Miles McBride | $3,000 | $3,500 | 11.9 | -10.0 | 7.7 | -7.2 | 14% | 6% | 0.64 | -0.41 | 0.66 | -0.42 | 2 | 1.1 | 0.36 | 1.1 | 0.31 |
The +/- columns show the difference between season averages and this series.
Miami Heat Lineup – DraftKings & FanDuel Salaries
| Player | DK | FD | MIN/G | +/- | FP/G | +/- | USG% | +/- | DK/M | +/- | FD/M | +/- | MIN (P) | DK (P) | DK/$ | FD (P) | FD/$ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gabe Vincent | $4,800 | $4,500 | 25.9 | 4.0 | 17.9 | 4.8 | 17% | 3% | 0.69 | 0.07 | 0.67 | 0.07 | 25 | 19.1 | 3.98 | 18.0 | 4.01 | |
| Max Strus | $4,900 | $5,300 | 28.4 | -0.2 | 20.9 | 2.9 | 17% | 1% | 0.74 | 0.11 | 0.70 | 0.11 | 30 | 17.7 | 3.62 | 16.8 | 3.17 | |
| Jimmy Butler | $9,700 | $10,800 | 33.4 | 7.5 | 42.2 | 8.0 | 25% | -1% | 1.26 | -0.04 | 1.29 | -0.02 | 40 | 50.8 | 5.24 | 51.1 | 4.73 | |
| Kevin Love | $4,400 | $4,400 | 20.0 | 0.5 | 20.4 | -2.3 | 19% | 0% | 1.02 | -0.14 | 0.97 | -0.14 | 21 | 19.2 | 4.37 | 18.3 | 4.15 | |
| Bam Adebayo | $7,600 | $8,000 | 34.6 | 3.1 | 40.1 | -4.8 | 25% | -6% | 1.16 | -0.22 | 1.16 | -0.24 | 38 | 41.7 | 5.48 | 41.7 | 5.21 | |
| Kyle Lowry | $5,200 | $5,700 | 31.2 | -2.7 | 26.9 | 2.7 | 16% | 2% | 0.86 | 0.18 | 0.84 | 0.23 | 29 | 24.1 | 4.64 | 22.8 | 4.01 | |
| Caleb Martin | $4,100 | $4,700 | 29.3 | -0.2 | 20.9 | 1.1 | 14% | 1% | 0.71 | 0.04 | 0.72 | 0.02 | 27 | 17.9 | 4.36 | 17.9 | 3.80 | |
| Duncan Robinson | $3,400 | $4,200 | 16.4 | -0.5 | 11.1 | -0.2 | 17% | 8% | 0.67 | 0.01 | 0.63 | 0.00 | 18 | 11.8 | 3.46 | 10.9 | 2.60 | |
| Cody Zeller | $3,000 | $3,600 | 14.4 | -5.3 | 13.5 | -7.0 | 18% | 3% | 0.94 | -0.23 | 0.94 | -0.26 | 10 | 8.7 | 2.90 | 8.6 | 2.38 | |
| Haywood Highsmith | $3,000 | $3,600 | 18.0 | -9.9 | 12.0 | -5.7 | 12% | 1% | 0.67 | 0.11 | 0.68 | 0.06 | 2 | 1.2 | 0.41 | 1.2 | 0.33 |
The +/- columns show the difference between season averages and this series.
Game Analysis
The Knicks looked like they were close to closing up shop at the end of the first quarter in Game 5. They were down big and weren’t playing with very much effort. They managed to bounce back much like they have all season and force a Game 6 with a big win at home. The Heat would have loved to close the series out, but have to know that tonight’s game is their best chance of beating the Knicks and advancing to the Eastern Conference Finals. There’s a lot on the line tonight and the Heat come into the game as 5.5-point favorites.
Jalen Brunson didn’t play 35 minutes, he didn’t play 40 minutes, he didn’t even play 45 minutes. In Game 5, he played the entire game. With Immanuel Quickley doubtful once again and with the Knicks still facing elimination, we shouldn’t be surprised if Brunson plays all 48 minutes once again. He has averaged 49 fantasy points per game in this series and is finally priced up to a point where he might not be the chalk on this slate. You know who else played the entire 48 minutes in Game 5? It was Quentin Grimes. He was able to fill up the stat sheet and has now averaged 25 fantasy points over the last two games. The price has come up a little, but he’s still too cheap for a player that we expect to play 40+ minutes.