NBA DFS Playoff Primer: Sunday, May 21
The NBA postseason is finally upon us. We no longer have to worry about players resting, late scratches, and teams trying to lose. For the next couple of months, we get meaningful basketball game after meaningful basketball game. We have decided to combine the Core Plays and the Grind Down into one all-encompassing article for the NBA playoffs. We will break down each slate, sift through the game flow trackers of prior meetings between teams, cover the notable matchups, and provide our favorite NBA DFS targets.
Happy Sunday! Last night we saw the Nuggets take a commanding 3-0 series lead over the Lakers after some late heroics yet again. Denver managed to survive foul trouble and an off night for Nikola Jokic, and it sure looks like they’re headed to the NBA Finals for the first time in franchise history. Tonight, we’ll see what the Eastern Conference has in store. The Heat will return to Miami with an impressive 2-0 lead of their own over Boston. The Celtics’ season is on the line tonight, but they haven’t shown a ton of urgency through the first 2 games of the series. If losing Games 1 and 2 on their home floor isn’t a wake-up call, I don’t know what is.
Despite the fact that they’ve essentially dominated their way through the playoffs, oddsmakers still aren’t buying what the Heat are selling. The Celtics are 3.5-point favorites on the road in tonight’s Game 3. I don’t think the Heat are lacking motivation or bulletin board material, but they can certainly rally behind the “nobody believes in us!” angle.
Game 3: Boston Celtics at Miami Heat
- Time: 8:30 PM ET
- Series: Heat 2 – Celtics 0
Series Matchups
- Game 1: MIA 123 at BOS 116
- Game 2: MIA 111 at BOS 105
Notable Injuries
Tyler Herro (Out)
Victor Oladipo (Out)
Celtics Lineup – DraftKings & FanDuel Salaries
| Player | DK | FD | MIN/G | +/- | FP/G | +/- | USG% | +/- | DK/M | +/- | FD/M | +/- | MIN (P) | DK (P) | DK/$ | FD (P) | FD/$ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Smart | $7,200 | $10,000 | 32.1 | 4.4 | 28.6 | 0.3 | 18% | -4% | 0.89 | -0.10 | 0.88 | -0.10 | 36 | 31.2 | 4.33 | 30.0 | 3.00 | |
| Jaylen Brown | $9,200 | $14,000 | 35.9 | 3.6 | 43.5 | -2.6 | 31% | -3% | 1.21 | -0.18 | 1.17 | -0.17 | 39 | 40.5 | 4.40 | 38.6 | 2.75 | |
| Jayson Tatum | $12,200 | $17,000 | 36.9 | 4.5 | 52.4 | 9.6 | 32% | 1% | 1.42 | 0.08 | 1.37 | 0.08 | 41 | 53.2 | 4.36 | 50.2 | 2.95 | |
| Al Horford | $6,600 | $11,500 | 30.5 | 2.4 | 26.1 | 2.7 | 12% | -2% | 0.85 | 0.02 | 0.85 | 0.11 | 30 | 22.3 | 3.37 | 21.8 | 1.90 | |
| Robert Williams | $5,000 | $8,500 | 23.5 | 4.3 | 24.2 | -4.5 | 11% | 1% | 1.03 | -0.32 | 1.08 | -0.36 | 26 | 22.5 | 4.51 | 23.5 | 2.77 | |
| Derrick White | $4,400 | $7,500 | 28.3 | -11.8 | 26.4 | -14.4 | 17% | -4% | 0.93 | -0.20 | 0.93 | -0.20 | 24 | 18.1 | 4.12 | 17.9 | 2.39 | |
| Malcolm Brogdon | $6,800 | $9,000 | 26.0 | 6.7 | 28.0 | -7.0 | 22% | -2% | 1.08 | -0.43 | 1.05 | -0.44 | 28 | 27.5 | 4.04 | 26.5 | 2.94 | |
| Grant Williams | $3,800 | $7,000 | 25.9 | -22.5 | 18.5 | -15.8 | 13% | 0.71 | 0.09 | 0.70 | 0.11 | 14 | 7.9 | 2.08 | 7.7 | 1.10 | ||
| Payton Pritchard | $1,000 | $6,000 | 13.4 | -6.5 | 10.7 | -10.2 | 19% | -9% | 0.80 | -0.73 | 0.74 | -0.70 | 1 | 0.8 | 0.84 | 0.8 | 0.13 | |
| Sam Hauser | $1,000 | $6,000 | 16.1 | -14.0 | 13.1 | -13.1 | 14% | 6% | 0.81 | -0.81 | 0.79 | -0.79 | 1 | 0.5 | 0.52 | 0.5 | 0.08 |
Heat Lineup – DraftKings & FanDuel Salaries
| Player | DK | FD | MIN/G | +/- | FP/G | +/- | USG% | +/- | DK/M | +/- | FD/M | +/- | MIN (P) | DK (P) | DK/$ | FD (P) | FD/$ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gabe Vincent | $5,600 | $8,000 | 25.9 | 7.7 | 17.9 | 5.3 | 17% | -4% | 0.69 | 0.00 | 0.67 | 0.01 | 34 | 24.9 | 4.45 | 23.7 | 2.96 | |
| Max Strus | $5,200 | $7,500 | 28.4 | 5.8 | 20.9 | 2.5 | 17% | -1% | 0.74 | -0.05 | 0.70 | -0.04 | 32 | 19.7 | 3.79 | 18.6 | 2.48 | |
| Jimmy Butler | $12,000 | $17,500 | 33.4 | 8.8 | 42.2 | 9.4 | 25% | 6% | 1.26 | -0.04 | 1.29 | -0.02 | 41 | 51.0 | 4.25 | 51.6 | 2.95 | |
| Kevin Love | $3,400 | $6,500 | 20.0 | -4.0 | 20.4 | -7.6 | 19% | -7% | 1.02 | -0.22 | 0.97 | -0.23 | 18 | 16.2 | 4.76 | 15.5 | 2.38 | |
| Bam Adebayo | $9,400 | $15,500 | 34.6 | 3.4 | 40.1 | -0.7 | 25% | 0% | 1.16 | -0.12 | 1.16 | -0.11 | 38 | 42.3 | 4.50 | 41.7 | 2.69 | |
| Kyle Lowry | $5,400 | $9,000 | 31.2 | -1.7 | 26.9 | 6.0 | 16% | -1% | 0.86 | 0.25 | 0.84 | 0.32 | 24 | 19.4 | 3.58 | 18.6 | 2.06 | |
| Caleb Martin | $6,200 | $9,500 | 29.3 | -2.2 | 20.9 | 4.0 | 14% | 1% | 0.71 | 0.20 | 0.72 | 0.23 | 30 | 19.3 | 3.11 | 19.4 | 2.04 | |
| Duncan Robinson | $4,000 | $7,000 | 16.4 | -6.1 | 11.1 | -6.6 | 17% | 1% | 0.67 | -0.24 | 0.63 | -0.19 | 12 | 8.3 | 2.09 | 7.7 | 1.10 |
Game 3 Analysis
You can’t really blame Jayson Tatum for the Celtics’ current predicament. He’s topped 30 points in each of the first 2 games on better than 50% shooting from the field. In Game 2, he piled up a bunch of peripherals onto his 34-point output. That said, the next time he makes a field goal in the fourth quarter of a game in this series will be the first. Tatum’s 1.36 FP/min rate in the postseason is still south of his regular-season mark (1.42), but his usage is still over 30%. We know he’s going to top 40 minutes in a competitive game, and the current salary gaps between him and Jaylen Brown around the industry are justified. I expect Jimmy Butler to be the most popular Captain/MVP choice today, so pivoting to Tatum is appealing.