NBA DFS Playoff Primer: Thursday, May 11
The NBA postseason is finally upon us. We no longer have to worry about players resting, late scratches, and teams trying to lose. For the next couple of months, we get meaningful basketball game after meaningful basketball game. We have decided to combine the Core Plays and the Grind Down into one all-encompassing article for the NBA playoffs. We will break down each slate, sift through the game flow trackers of prior meetings between teams, cover the notable matchups, and provide our favorite NBA DFS targets.
The Knicks and Warriors were both able to take care of business last night at home, which means we have four Game 6s to look forward to over the next two nights. With any luck, we’ll get at least a couple of Game 7s, which just so happen to be my favorite thing in sports. There’s a lot on the line tonight, as the Celtics and Suns are both facing elimination. One will need to win on the road and the other will need to win short-handed at home. Let’s dive right into the slate.
Game 6: Boston Celtics at Philadelphia Sixers
- Time: 7:30 PM ET
- Series: Celtics 2 – Sixers 3
Previous Matchups
- Game 1: Sixers 119 – Celtics 115
- Game 2: Sixers 87 – Celtics 121
- Game 3: Celtics 114 – Sixers 102
- Game 4: Celtics 115 – Sixers 116
- Game 5: Sixers 115 – Celtics 103
Notable Injuries
Joel Embiid – Questionable
Boston Celtics Lineup – DraftKings & FanDuel Salaries
| Player | DK | FD | MIN/G | +/- | FP/G | +/- | USG% | +/- | DK/M | +/- | FD/M | +/- | MIN (P) | DK (P) | DK/$ | FD (P) | FD/$ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Smart | $5,400 | $6,000 | 32.1 | 2.5 | 28.6 | -0.5 | 18% | 3% | 0.89 | -0.08 | 0.88 | -0.11 | 35 | 27.4 | 5.08 | 26.5 | 4.42 | |
| Derrick White | $4,900 | $5,000 | 28.3 | 3.4 | 26.4 | -7.7 | 17% | -4% | 0.93 | -0.34 | 0.93 | -0.36 | 31 | 25.3 | 5.16 | 25.0 | 5.00 | |
| Jaylen Brown | $7,900 | $8,000 | 35.9 | 1.0 | 43.5 | -5.8 | 31% | -6% | 1.21 | -0.19 | 1.17 | -0.19 | 39 | 41.8 | 5.29 | 39.8 | 4.97 | |
| Jayson Tatum | $9,800 | $10,800 | 36.9 | 1.6 | 52.4 | 1.8 | 32% | -2% | 1.42 | -0.01 | 1.37 | 0.02 | 40 | 52.3 | 5.34 | 49.5 | 4.58 | |
| Al Horford | $5,500 | $7,000 | 30.5 | -1.0 | 26.1 | 3.0 | 12% | 2% | 0.85 | 0.13 | 0.85 | 0.22 | 32 | 23.1 | 4.20 | 23.2 | 3.32 | |
| Malcolm Brogdon | $5,200 | $5,700 | 26.0 | 3.1 | 28.0 | 1.4 | 22% | 1% | 1.08 | -0.07 | 1.05 | -0.10 | 30 | 27.5 | 5.28 | 26.7 | 4.69 | |
| Robert Williams | $3,600 | $4,800 | 23.5 | -5.9 | 24.2 | -9.7 | 11% | -5% | 1.03 | -0.21 | 1.08 | -0.15 | 18 | 16.7 | 4.63 | 17.8 | 3.70 | |
| Grant Williams | $3,200 | $4,000 | 25.9 | -7.7 | 18.5 | -7.3 | 13% | -4% | 0.71 | -0.10 | 0.70 | -0.06 | 14 | 8.1 | 2.54 | 8.0 | 2.01 | |
| Sam Hauser | $3,000 | $3,600 | 16.1 | -9.9 | 13.1 | -10.4 | 14% | -1% | 0.81 | -0.37 | 0.79 | -0.30 | 1 | 0.5 | 0.17 | 0.5 | 0.14 |
The +/- columns show the difference between season averages and this series.
Philadelphia Sixers Lineup – DraftKings & FanDuel Salaries
| Player | DK | FD | MIN/G | +/- | FP/G | +/- | USG% | +/- | DK/M | +/- | FD/M | +/- | MIN (P) | DK (P) | DK/$ | FD (P) | FD/$ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Harden | $8,700 | $9,600 | 36.8 | 3.0 | 49.0 | 3.1 | 25% | 2% | 1.33 | -0.02 | 1.26 | 0.01 | 40 | 45.8 | 5.27 | 43.5 | 4.53 | |
| Tyrese Maxey | $6,300 | $7,200 | 33.6 | 4.9 | 31.7 | 2.2 | 24% | 0% | 0.94 | -0.06 | 0.91 | -0.02 | 39 | 30.4 | 4.83 | 29.6 | 4.11 | |
| Tobias Harris | $5,600 | $6,000 | 32.9 | 0.5 | 28.8 | -4.7 | 18% | -2% | 0.87 | -0.15 | 0.87 | -0.18 | 39 | 29.5 | 5.27 | 28.9 | 4.82 | |
| P.J. Tucker | $3,700 | $3,800 | 25.6 | 2.2 | 11.0 | 2.6 | 7% | 0% | 0.43 | 0.06 | 0.43 | 0.04 | 28 | 14.2 | 3.83 | 14.2 | 3.74 | |
| Joel Embiid | $9,600 | $11,400 | 34.6 | 2.8 | 57.3 | -6.9 | 37% | -3% | 1.66 | -0.31 | 1.64 | -0.27 | 37 | 56.4 | 5.88 | 55.2 | 4.84 | |
| De’Anthony Melton | $4,200 | $4,500 | 27.9 | -3.9 | 23.7 | -6.7 | 16% | -2% | 0.85 | -0.14 | 0.86 | -0.10 | 24 | 17.8 | 4.24 | 18.1 | 4.01 | |
| Georges Niang | $3,100 | $3,800 | 19.4 | -3.6 | 14.6 | -7.9 | 16% | -3% | 0.75 | -0.33 | 0.71 | -0.33 | 12 | 6.2 | 1.99 | 5.8 | 1.53 | |
| Paul Reed | $3,200 | $4,300 | 10.9 | -1.4 | 12.1 | -4.1 | 15% | -7% | 1.11 | -0.26 | 1.20 | -0.30 | 8 | 8.8 | 2.75 | 9.3 | 2.15 |
The +/- columns show the difference between season averages and this series.
Game Analysis
The Sixers winning Game 4 wasn’t a huge surprise, but many picked the Celtics in that one. The Sixers winning Game 5 in dominating fashion was a surprise to everyone. Before the game started, the Celtics were +115 to win the NBA Finals. Not the series or the Eastern Conference, but the NBA Finals. They are now underdogs in the series and facing elimination on the road in Philadelphia. We are about to see what both of these teams are made of when it matters most. The Celtics are listed as 2.5-point underdogs and this game features a 212.5-point total.
The Celtics have essentially had six key pieces in their rotation and then they have mixed in the likes of Robert Williams and Grant Williams. The starters have played huge minutes, as has Malcolm Brogdon off the bench. We saw Marcus Smart play limited minutes in the first round, but that is no longer the case. He has averaged 35 minutes per game in this series. The per-minute production has dipped, but he still seems underpriced (especially on DraftKings) for a player that is averaging 28 fantasy points per game.