NBA DFS Playoff Primer: Tuesday, April 11
The NBA playoffs are finally here. We don’t have to worry about teams resting players, late scratches, and teams trying to lose on purpose. For the next couple of months, we get meaningful basketball game after meaningful basketball game. We have decided to combine the idea of the Core Plays article and the Grind Down Article into one for this NBA DFS playoff stretch. We will break down each slate, go through game flow trackers of prior meetings between these teams, talk about the notable matchups, and give our favorite DFS targets for each site.
I have mixed feelings about the play-in tournament. I love the idea of keeping more teams invested during the regular season, but it hasn’t really helped with the tanking problem. In fact, we saw three teams (Jazz, Wizards, Mavericks) that were in playoff contention punt away games the last few weeks in order to get a better spot in the upcoming draft. I’m not sure what the solution to tanking is, but I’m not sure the play-in tournament is helping in that regard.
With that said, once we get to the play-in tournament, I love it. If you aren’t familiar with how it works, two teams from each conference will ultimately claim the seventh and eighth seeds for the playoffs. The teams that finished the regular season in seventh and eighth place will play in the first game of each conference’s play-in tournament. The winner automatically gets into the playoffs as the seventh seed. The loser will host the winner of the game between the teams that finished the regular season in ninth and tenth place in their respective conference. This format gives an advantage to the lower seeds, while still providing an opportunity for the lower seeds to claim a playoff spot.
For Tuesday night, we have the two seven/eight matchups. Let’s dive into the slate!
#8 Atlanta Hawks at #7 Miami Heat
- Time: 7:30 PM ET
- Season Series: 3-1 for Miami
- Scenario for Winner: #7 seed in the East
- Scenario for Loser: Hosts winner of Bulls/Raptors for #8 seed
Previous Matchups
- MIA 106 at ATL 98 (11/27/22) “Game Flow”:
- MIA 113 at ATL 121 (1/16/23) “Game Flow”:
- ATL 109 at MIA 117 (3/4/23) “Game Flow”:
- ATL 128 at MIA 130 (3/6/23) “Game Flow”:
Hawks Notable Injuries
None
Hawks Lineup – DraftKings & FanDuel Salaries
Note: The +/- columns show the difference between season and series averages
| Player | DK | FD | MIN/G | +/- | FP/G | +/- | USG% | +/- | DK/M | +/- | FD/M | +/- | MIN (P) | DK (P) | DK/$ | FD (P) | FD/$ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trae Young | $10,000 | $9,700 | 34.8 | 0.3 | 47.5 | -4.9 | 31% | -3% | 1.36 | -0.15 | 1.29 | -0.10 | 37 | 46.1 | 4.61 | 42.5 | 4.38 | |
| Dejounte Murray | $8,800 | $8,500 | 36.4 | 0.4 | 39.9 | -3.8 | 24% | -1% | 1.10 | -0.12 | 1.08 | -0.09 | 37 | 37.1 | 4.22 | 36.7 | 4.32 | |
| De’Andre Hunter | $4,900 | $5,400 | 31.7 | 2.1 | 24.5 | 2.3 | 19% | 0% | 0.77 | 0.02 | 0.76 | 0.02 | 33 | 23.2 | 4.73 | 22.5 | 4.17 | |
| John Collins | $5,300 | $5,900 | 30.0 | -3.8 | 26.4 | -2.9 | 17% | 2% | 0.88 | 0.02 | 0.89 | -0.02 | 29 | 22.7 | 4.28 | 22.7 | 3.84 | |
| Clint Capela | $6,200 | $6,700 | 26.6 | -0.2 | 31.3 | -1.6 | 15% | -1% | 1.18 | -0.05 | 1.20 | -0.07 | 27 | 28.2 | 4.55 | 28.5 | 4.26 | |
| Saddiq Bey | $5,800 | $6,100 | 27.6 | 5.9 | 24.8 | 7.4 | 19% | -2% | 0.90 | 0.06 | 0.88 | 0.04 | 26 | 21.4 | 3.68 | 20.8 | 3.41 | |
| Bogdan Bogdanovic | $5,200 | $5,300 | 27.9 | -0.8 | 25.0 | -5.0 | 20% | -1% | 0.90 | -0.16 | 0.87 | -0.14 | 26 | 20.6 | 3.97 | 19.8 | 3.73 | |
| Onyeka Okongwu | $5,100 | $5,800 | 23.1 | 1.4 | 24.2 | -8.9 | 15% | -1% | 1.05 | -0.42 | 1.10 | -0.45 | 22 | 23.6 | 4.62 | 24.2 | 4.17 | |
| AJ Griffin | $3,400 | $4,400 | 19.5 | 1.3 | 15.0 | 1.6 | 17% | 4% | 0.77 | 0.03 | 0.76 | 0.01 | 2 | 1.6 | 0.46 | 1.5 | 0.34 | |
| Jalen Johnson | $3,700 | $5,600 | 14.9 | -2.9 | 14.3 | -3.8 | 16% | -6% | 0.96 | -0.08 | 0.99 | -0.17 | 2 | 2.0 | 0.55 | 2.0 | 0.36 |
Heat Notable Injuries
None
Heat Lineup – DraftKings & FanDuel Salaries
Note: The +/- columns show the difference between season and series averages
| Player | DK | FD | MIN/G | +/- | FP/G | +/- | USG% | +/- | DK/M | +/- | FD/M | +/- | MIN (P) | DK (P) | DK/$ | FD (P) | FD/$ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gabe Vincent | $4,500 | $4,900 | 25.9 | 1.4 | 17.9 | 0.1 | 17% | -1% | 0.69 | -0.03 | 0.67 | -0.05 | 23 | 15.9 | 3.53 | 15.4 | 3.13 | |
| Tyler Herro | $6,800 | $7,800 | 34.9 | 1.6 | 35.6 | -3.0 | 25% | -3% | 1.02 | -0.13 | 0.97 | -0.15 | 35 | 34.6 | 5.09 | 32.5 | 4.16 | |
| Max Strus | $5,400 | $4,800 | 28.4 | -3.0 | 20.9 | -4.4 | 17% | -1% | 0.74 | -0.09 | 0.70 | -0.10 | 29 | 19.3 | 3.58 | 18.3 | 3.82 | |
| Jimmy Butler | $9,000 | $9,800 | 33.4 | 0.2 | 42.2 | 5.8 | 25% | -2% | 1.26 | 0.17 | 1.29 | 0.12 | 37 | 51.8 | 5.75 | 52.4 | 5.34 | |
| Bam Adebayo | $7,700 | $8,200 | 34.6 | 0.8 | 40.1 | 9.0 | 25% | 0% | 1.16 | 0.23 | 1.16 | 0.27 | 35 | 37.9 | 4.92 | 38.2 | 4.66 | |
| Kyle Lowry | $4,000 | $5,600 | 31.2 | 1.6 | 26.9 | 4.9 | 16% | 1% | 0.86 | 0.11 | 0.84 | 0.17 | 29 | 24.2 | 6.05 | 23.5 | 4.20 | |
| Caleb Martin | $5,000 | $5,200 | 29.3 | 1.7 | 20.9 | 9.5 | 14% | 3% | 0.71 | 0.27 | 0.72 | 0.27 | 29 | 21.3 | 4.26 | 21.5 | 4.14 | |
| Kevin Love | $4,700 | $4,800 | 20.0 | -1.9 | 20.4 | -4.2 | 19% | 0% | 1.02 | -0.12 | 0.97 | -0.10 | 19 | 19.2 | 4.09 | 18.1 | 3.77 | |
| Cody Zeller | $4,800 | $4,500 | 14.4 | -2.2 | 13.5 | -1.7 | 18% | 3% | 0.94 | 0.03 | 0.94 | 0.00 | 2 | 1.9 | 0.40 | 1.9 | 0.42 | |
| Victor Oladipo | $4,300 | $5,900 | 26.3 | 2.9 | 22.9 | 3.1 | 20% | -2% | 0.87 | 0.02 | 0.86 | 0.00 | 2 | 1.7 | 0.40 | 1.7 | 0.28 |
Game Analysis
The Heat dominated the regular season series against the Hawks and come into tonight’s game as 5-point favorites. Home-court advantage plays such a big role in the playoffs and I could see it playing a big role in this one — Miami finished with a record of 27-14 at home, while Atlanta finished with a record of 17-24 on the road. The teams had similar net ratings during the regular season with the Heat leaning more on their defense and the Hawks leaning more on their offense.
I can’t tell you how excited I am to write this — we don’t have a single injury to worry about in this game. Nikola Jovic is not going to suit up for the Heat, but he wasn’t going to crack the rotation anyway. Now that we are into the postseason, look for all teams to tighten their rotations and lean heavily on their starters. With this being a win-and-your-in type of game, we can expect that to be even more of the case tonight.