NBA DFS Playoff Primer: Wednesday, May 10
The NBA postseason is finally upon us. We no longer have to worry about players resting, late scratches, and teams trying to lose. For the next couple of months, we get meaningful basketball game after meaningful basketball game. We have decided to combine the Core Plays and the Grind Down into one all-encompassing article for the NBA playoffs. We will break down each slate, sift through the game flow trackers of prior meetings between teams, cover the notable matchups, and provide our favorite NBA DFS targets.
After four great games on Sunday and Monday night, we had a bit of a let-down on Tuesday night. The Sixers got off to a hot start and never looked back. The Celtics couldn’t seem to make a shot when they needed to and were dominated on the glass (49 to 36). The team that was the heavy favorite to win it all as of a day ago is now on the ropes. They’ll head to Philadelphia for Game 6 tomorrow night. The Suns didn’t put up much of a fight against the Nuggets and are also on the brink of elimination. Unlike the Celtics, they’ll at least get to play Game 6 at home.
We don’t need to concern ourselves with those series too much, as we have two big games to break down tonight. The Knicks and Warriors are both looking to stave off elimination with a win at home tonight.
Game 5: Miami Heat at New York Knicks
- Time: 7:30 PM ET
- Series: Heat 3 – Knicks 1
Previous Matchups
- Game 1: Heat 108 – Knicks 101
- Game 2: Heat 105 – Knicks 111
- Game 3: Knicks 86 – Heat 105
- Game 4: Knicks 101 – Heat 109
Notable Injuries
Jimmy Butler – Questionable
Caleb Martin – Questionable
Immanuel Quickley – Doubtful
Miami Heat Lineup – DraftKings & FanDuel Salaries
| Player | DK | FD | MIN/G | +/- | FP/G | +/- | USG% | +/- | DK/M | +/- | FD/M | +/- | MIN (P) | DK (P) | DK/$ | FD (P) | FD/$ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gabe Vincent | $5,100 | $4,800 | 25.9 | 5.7 | 17.9 | 6.3 | 17% | 2% | 0.69 | 0.07 | 0.67 | 0.08 | 29 | 21.8 | 4.27 | 20.6 | 4.29 | |
| Max Strus | $5,000 | $5,500 | 28.4 | 0.2 | 20.9 | 4.0 | 17% | 1% | 0.74 | 0.13 | 0.70 | 0.15 | 32 | 18.6 | 3.72 | 17.7 | 3.21 | |
| Jimmy Butler | $9,700 | $10,600 | 33.4 | 6.9 | 42.2 | 7.0 | 25% | 1% | 1.26 | -0.04 | 1.29 | -0.06 | 40 | 50.1 | 5.17 | 50.5 | 4.76 | |
| Kevin Love | $4,700 | $4,400 | 20.0 | 1.6 | 20.4 | -0.8 | 19% | -2% | 1.02 | -0.11 | 0.97 | -0.12 | 22 | 19.9 | 4.23 | 18.9 | 4.30 | |
| Bam Adebayo | $7,600 | $8,000 | 34.6 | 2.8 | 40.1 | -4.3 | 25% | -5% | 1.16 | -0.20 | 1.16 | -0.23 | 37 | 40.1 | 5.27 | 40.0 | 5.00 | |
| Kyle Lowry | $5,300 | $5,800 | 31.2 | -3.3 | 26.9 | 4.4 | 16% | 2% | 0.86 | 0.26 | 0.84 | 0.31 | 26 | 21.3 | 4.03 | 20.2 | 3.48 | |
| Caleb Martin | $4,200 | $4,700 | 29.3 | 0.1 | 20.9 | 1.4 | 14% | 2% | 0.71 | 0.04 | 0.72 | 0.03 | 26 | 17.0 | 4.05 | 17.0 | 3.62 | |
| Cody Zeller | $3,100 | $3,600 | 14.4 | -5.4 | 13.5 | -7.3 | 18% | 2% | 0.94 | -0.24 | 0.94 | -0.27 | 8 | 6.9 | 2.23 | 6.8 | 1.90 | |
| Duncan Robinson | $3,300 | $3,600 | 16.4 | -2.1 | 11.1 | -3.9 | 17% | 7% | 0.67 | -0.17 | 0.63 | -0.19 | 12 | 7.7 | 2.33 | 7.2 | 1.99 | |
| Haywood Highsmith | $3,000 | $3,600 | 18.0 | -8.5 | 12.0 | -4.1 | 12% | 1% | 0.67 | 0.16 | 0.68 | 0.11 | 8 | 4.8 | 1.58 | 4.6 | 1.28 |
The +/- columns show the difference between season averages and this series.
New York Knicks Lineup – DraftKings & FanDuel Salaries
| Player | DK | FD | MIN/G | +/- | FP/G | +/- | USG% | +/- | DK/M | +/- | FD/M | +/- | MIN (P) | DK (P) | DK/$ | FD (P) | FD/$ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Brunson | $8,700 | $9,000 | 35.0 | 5.4 | 39.9 | 6.1 | 27% | 0% | 1.14 | 0.00 | 1.11 | 0.00 | 38 | 42.0 | 4.83 | 40.5 | 4.50 | |
| Quentin Grimes | $4,400 | $4,300 | 29.9 | -5.0 | 21.3 | -8.8 | 14% | -3% | 0.71 | -0.21 | 0.69 | -0.18 | 36 | 22.5 | 5.12 | 22.0 | 5.10 | |
| RJ Barrett | $6,600 | $6,600 | 33.9 | 0.7 | 31.1 | 3.2 | 26% | 3% | 0.92 | 0.07 | 0.87 | 0.05 | 35 | 31.2 | 4.72 | 29.6 | 4.48 | |
| Julius Randle | $8,200 | $7,300 | 35.5 | 2.8 | 46.3 | -7.5 | 29% | -4% | 1.31 | -0.29 | 1.23 | -0.31 | 39 | 45.5 | 5.55 | 42.4 | 5.80 | |
| Mitchell Robinson | $4,900 | $5,200 | 26.9 | -1.5 | 25.9 | -8.4 | 10% | 0% | 0.96 | -0.28 | 1.04 | -0.32 | 28 | 24.2 | 4.93 | 25.4 | 4.88 | |
| Josh Hart | $5,800 | $6,000 | 32.3 | 1.6 | 28.1 | 0.9 | 12% | 4% | 0.87 | -0.02 | 0.87 | -0.06 | 28 | 23.1 | 3.98 | 22.6 | 3.77 | |
| Isaiah Hartenstein | $3,500 | $4,000 | 19.9 | 0.4 | 17.4 | -5.0 | 11% | -8% | 0.87 | -0.27 | 0.92 | -0.21 | 20 | 15.8 | 4.52 | 16.6 | 4.14 | |
| Obi Toppin | $3,700 | $3,700 | 15.7 | 0.3 | 13.8 | -0.5 | 19% | 2% | 0.88 | -0.05 | 0.85 | -0.04 | 9 | 7.9 | 2.14 | 7.7 | 2.07 | |
| Miles McBride | $3,000 | $3,500 | 11.9 | -9.3 | 7.7 | -6.9 | 14% | 9% | 0.64 | -0.35 | 0.66 | -0.37 | 6 | 3.3 | 1.11 | 3.4 | 0.96 |
The +/- columns show the difference between season averages and this series.
Game Analysis
The Heat continue to defy the odds in the playoffs. They were massive underdogs against the Bucks and pulled off the upset in five games. They were sizable favorites heading into this series and are now up three games to one with a chance to close out the series in New York. The Knicks haven’t been themselves in this series. Miami’s defense deserves a lot of credit, as New York hasn’t shot the ball well and has committed far too many turnovers. The real problem in Game 4 was how many offensive rebounds the Knicks allowed (13). They’ll look to avoid elimination tonight with a win at home. This game features a 3.5-point spread and a 209.5-point total.
I was encouraged by the playing time for Gabe Vincent in Game 3, which is why I was willing to look his way in Game 4 despite the poor form. Unfortunately, Erik Spoelstra was quick to move on after another slow start from Vincent. He has now been held to 29 fantasy points in the last two games combined. His price has come up a bit, making him more of a large-field tournament play tonight. Kyle Lowry has been terrific on a per-minute basis off the bench, but hasn’t had those ceiling games in terms of minutes in this series. If choosing between the two, I’ll side with Lowry on DraftKings and Vincent on FanDuel.