NBA DFS Picks Today (12/29): DraftKings & FanDuel Top Plays, Sleepers
Happy Friday! DraftKings and FanDuel decided to pull more shenanigans today, as both sites decided to leave the late-night games off of their main slates. To me, this is simply a nasty example of Pacific Time Zone Erasure. There’s an edge in waiting on late-game news that they’re choosing to eliminate. So, the latest games on tonight’s slate tip at 9 PM ET.
Below, you’ll find a few NBA DFS picks that stand out on DraftKings and FanDuel as of the early afternoon hours. If you’re looking for more in-depth analysis, sign up for RG Premium.
Top NBA DFS DraftKings Lineup Optimizer Value
SF/PF Tari Eason ($6,300)
The Rockets have been a pleasant surprise this season, but then the injury bug attacked. Dillon Brooks and Jabari Smith went down with injuries in consecutive games, which will leave Ime Udoka without a couple of starters tonight when the Rockets host the Sixers. We saw Jae’Sean Tate start the last game in Brooks’ place, and we’re expecting Tari Eason to slide into Jabari’s vacated starting spot tonight. Be aware that Eason himself is listed as questionable with a leg injury, but he’s been able to play through it a couple of times already this week.
Eason has been a terrific per-minute producer over the past couple of years. It’s just been a matter of actually getting the minutes. He’s up to 1.18 DK FP/minute through 203 minutes this year with Smith and Brooks on the bench despite a limited 19.9% usage rate. Eason is easily the Rockets’ best rebounder (19.3%) with Smith out of the lineup, and he’s a great source of stocks.
We have Tari projected for 32 minutes tonight, which would be 1 short of a season-high. He’s going to be popular considering his elite production is no secret, but he should be. Eason is too cheap for the minutes he’s expected to play in this one.
Top NBA DFS FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Value
SG Peyton Watson ($4,400)
Peyton Watson is a forward, so I’m not totally sure why you can only roster him at shooting guard on FanDuel. Whatever the case, the second-year swingman should draw a second straight start tonight with Aaron Gordon still missing from the lineup. Watson got the nod last night in the blowout win over the Grizzlies and fared quite well in 23 minutes of action.
Tonight’s matchup against the Thunder isn’t ideal, but at least OKC plays at a fast pace. Watson has been productive enough (0.79 FP/minute) with AG on the bench, and he likely would’ve topped 23 minutes last night had the Grizzlies been able to stay in the game. We have Watson projected for 28 minutes tonight with OKC in town.
Good cheapies are hard to come by as of this writing, which makes Watson stand out as one of the better point-per-dollar values on the slate. Even if more value emerges later in the day, Watson is still a viable target in all formats.
NBA DFS Sleepers
PG De’Aaron Fox ($9,400 DK, $10,300 FD)
We’ve been picking on the Hawks all year for a reason. Atlanta enters Friday’s action ranked 4th in the league in pace, 5th in offense, and just 27th in defense. That’s a recipe for shootouts, and there’s nothing we like more in NBA DFS than a high-scoring, competitive environment. In related news, tonight’s Kings-Hawks clash in Atlanta features a 1-point spread and a hefty 252 total.
Sounds like a good game environment for De’Aaron Fox, no? Fox is at it again, leading the team in usage (33%!) with a tidy 1.42 DK FP/minute average. He often seems to go overshadowed at what is usually a deep point guard position, but he probably shouldn’t. Tonight’s $10,300 FD salary is getting up there, but $9,400 on DK looks like a relative discount for that kind of elite production.
Fox predictably projects quite well in what should be the highest-scoring game of the night, yet his early-day pOWN% is low. Fox is coming in around 10% projected ownership on DK, while he’s around just 4% at his more premium price point on FanDuel.
C Alperen Sengun ($8,400 DK, $8,900 FD)
Playing centers against the Sixers isn’t generally my cup of tea, but this isn’t the normal “centers against the Sixers” situation tonight. Joel Embiid is out again, which means Alperen Sengun will spend the night tangling with the likes of Paul Reed and Mo Bamba in the paint.
Sengun is already averaging 1.36 FP/minute for the season while leading the Rockets in usage. He hasn’t gotten much of a usage boost with Jabari Smith off the floor, but the minutes should be there if this game is close. As was the case yesterday, tonight’s slate looks like it’ll feature plenty of value at the center position. Reed, Nick Richards, and Isaiah Hartenstein are a few cheaper options at the position that should garner some ownership, and there’s always a chance more value pops later in the day. We’ve also got the likes of Nikola Jokic, Chet Holmgren, Domantas Sabonis, Nic Claxton, and Jarrett Allen projecting well on a point-per-dollar basis.
You can’t play ‘em all, so it’s reasonable to expect Sengun to fly under the radar here despite what should be a favorable enough spot. Alpi looks like a great way to differentiate if you have an otherwise chalky tournament build.
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