NBA DFS Picks Today (11/27): DraftKings & FanDuel Top Plays, Sleepers
Here’s hoping you had a nice Thanksgiving holiday, because we’re right back to the grind on this Monday with a 5-game NBA DFS slate. There’s still no shortage of star power out there, however, with all of Joel Embiid, Nikola Jokic, LeBron James, Tyrese Haliburton, and the Clippers in action. We’ve also got big names like LeBron, Lauri Markkanen, Aaron Gordon, and Jordan Poole all carrying questionable tags, so we could see plenty of moving parts between now and lock.
Below, you’ll find a few NBA DFS picks that stand out on DraftKings and FanDuel as of the early afternoon hours. If you’re looking for more in-depth analysis, sign up for RG Premium.
Top NBA DFS DraftKings Lineup Optimizer Value
PG/SG Malcolm Brogdon ($7,900)
If it feels like we’ve been playing Malcolm Brogdon all year long, it’s because we have been. The Blazers’ backcourt has been an injury-riddled mess all year long, though they are starting to get healthy. Scoot Henderson is back after missing quite a bit of time with an ankle injury, though Portland has been bringing him off the bench behind Brogdon over the past 2 games. This will likely change at some point, but for now, we have Brogdon projected to start again tonight in Indiana.
In case you haven’t heard, the Pacers are about as good of a matchup as you can find from a DFS standpoint. Indiana appropriately leads the league in pace, while they’re just 26th in defensive rating. The Blazers are hefty 13-point road underdogs in this one, but we have Brogdon projected to play 34 minutes. The reigning Sixth Man of the Year has been terrific again this season, contributing 1.23 FP/min on strong 28.4% usage in his first year with the Blazers.
Whether the Blazers can keep up in this game is a legitimate concern, but he’s still popping as an outstanding value on DraftKings at $7,900. If Portland does decide to put Scoot back into the starting unit at Brogdon’s expense, however, I’ll be inclined to pivot. Fortunately, this is one of 3 games starting at 7 PM ET.
Top NBA DFS FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Value
C Jalen Duren ($6,700)
Another high-total game with shootout potential is the Wizards-Pistons. Both of these teams rank in the bottom 10 in the league in defensive efficiency, and both happen to be riding incredible skids. The Wizards come into this one as losers of 9 straight games. Meanwhile, the Pistons have dropped 14 straight since a promising 2-1 start.
Jalen Duren has dealt with his own injuries this season, but he returned and played 29 minutes in the last game after dealing with ankle trouble. The second-year big man is averaging a sparkling 1.19 FP/min across his first 259 minutes, and he’s been much more consistent now that the Pistons are rolling with him as the everyday starting center.
Washington is a dreadful basketball team in almost every regard, and Duren is projecting extremely well for the dollar in just 30 minutes here. There’s room for upside on those minutes, as well, but we’re taking a conservative approach there in light of his recent injury.
NBA DFS Sleepers
SF/PF LeBron James ($9,700 DK, $10,200 FD)
James is officially questionable with his ongoing calf injury, but he’s been consistently playing through Q tags for the past couple of weeks. Tonight’s matchup for the Lakers in Philly is a difficult one, but this is more about LeBron than anything else. He’s not projected to garner much ownership on either site despite reasonable salaries in the $10,000 range.
It’s old hat by now, but LeBron just keeps doing his thing. He’s leading the team in FPPM rate (1.48), usage (30.3%), and assist rate (32.1%), while he’s third behind Anthony Davis and Christian Wood in rebound rate (13.5%). Interestingly enough, he’s also in the midst of his most efficient season in years. LeBron’s 56% field goal percentage is his highest since his halcyon 2013-14 days with the Heat, while his 38.5% 3-point percentage is his best since 2012-13.
The Lakers are 5.5-point underdogs in this game, so we should see a full complement of minutes for James. On a slate with plenty of pay-up options, LeBron looks like a decent way to get a little different in tournaments.
C Daniel Gafford ($5,700 DK, $5,900 FD)
The other center in the Wizards-Pistons extravaganza may go overlooked. I had high hopes for Daniel Gafford coming into the season with Kristaps Porzingis out of the mix for the Wizards, but the consistency hasn’t been there. Gafford is playing a career-high 24.7 minutes per game, but the Wizards’ proclivity for getting blown out means a sub-20-minute outing is still within his range of outcomes.
That said, we have seen Gafford playing upwards of 30 minutes in competitive games of late, including a 34-minute effort against Charlotte just last week. The per-minute production (1.03) isn’t a question mark, and tonight’s game in Detroit should stay close. The lowly Pistons are just 2.5-point home favorites over Gafford’s Wizards.
As a result, Gafford looks like a decent way to get exposure to this high-total game. We haven’t seen a huge ceiling out of him so far, but it’s in there somewhere. A fairly loaded center position should result in limited ownership for Gafford here.