NBA DFS Projections Preview | DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Values 12/16/22
We’re ending the week with a big 10-game slate that is shaping up to be pretty wild as we have a couple new big names out, a handful of big questionable guys, and the likely return of Gordon Hayward and Robert Williams. Nine of the ten games tip off before 9PM EST so hopefully we get most if not all of the news on the questionable players before lock or soon after and thankfully the lone game (DEN/LAL) that tips after 8:30PM doesn’t have any major news to worry about. No teams are on a back-to-back so we have all the updated injury reports.
This is a daily weekday NBA article that can hopefully show you some lineup-building tools on RG as well as provide some picks and analysis based on those tools.
Today’s FanDuel & DraftKings NBA DFS Projections Preview
There are ways to get edges in DFS NBA, such as tracking injury news right up to lock and swapping in top value plays if a questionable player gets ruled, knowing which teams are on a back-to-back and not fully rested, and adjusting to daily positional matchups and team pace matchups to always be targeting the players and teams with the highest daily upside. I will be focusing on the “main slate” each weekday, but you can still find plenty of analysis for any other slates including weekends on RG, and feel free to leave suggestions in the comments sections for any strategies/tools you’d like to see here!
This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for NBA, including our industry-leading NBA DFS projections and NBA lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!
NBA DFS Injury Roundup
Before we take a look at the projected lineups and picks for the day it’s important to get a feel for any injuries that we’ll need to monitor throughout the day and how these injuries will affect our builds if a questionable player ends up out. For cash games, I’m looking for big minutes, high usage, and fast-paced games with bad defenses. Knowing who is dealing with any kind of injury and might not get 30+ minutes is critical as well as how a regular starter being out will affect other players’ usage rates and if their replacement starter is worth using.
Looking at The Situation Room we can see who is definitely out, likely out, and questionable for today’s main slate and how it will affect lineups if certain questionable players end up sitting.
- Rudy Gobert and DAngelo Russell are questionable for Minnesota and if both get ruled out I’d consider Anthony Edwards one of the top plays of the slate having to carry most of the offense in a projected close, high scoring matchup with OKC. If Gobert is out I’d also consider Naz Reid one of the best value plays of the slate as he’s been a solid play over the last seven games even with Gobert in so as a starter he should crush his price tag on both sites. Russell out would likely give Austin Rivers the start again but Jaylen Nowell would be the preferred PG target even off the bench.
- Klay Thompson and Draymond Green are questionable for the Warriors and if both end up out I would lock in Jordan Poole and Donte DiVincenzo in to cash games on all sites. If just Klay sits I’d still consider Poole and Donte top plays while Green sitting would give JaMychal Green or Jonathan Kuminga the start at PF with Kuminga being the higher upside play. (Update: Draymond is OUT)
- Marcus Smart and Robert Williams are questionable for Boston with Williams looking closer to probable. If Williams plays he’d likely be on some kind of minutes limit so I won’t looking to use him just yet in DFS especially with Horford available while Smart sitting would give nice bumps to Derrick White and Malcolm Brogdon as the primary PGs.
- Kevin Huerter is questionable and if out Terence Davis would likely draw another start and be a decent value play while Malik Monk would also see a bump in minutes.
- Ayo Dosunmu and Seth Curry are questionable and if either sit it would give bumps to Alex Caruso, Coby White, and Joe Harris.
If you want to see how someone out will affect the rest of the team check out the Court IQ Tool where you can see what players’ usage rates and FPPM (fantasy points per minute) are for any team with certain teammates on or off the floor.
NBA Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Games to Target
Let’s take a look at NBA Starting Lineups to see any major lineup news, such as guys missing or interesting depth chart changes as well as which teams or games I’m looking to target. This page is my favorite tool for NBA DFS as we get betting lines, DFS salaries, projected ownership, and updated depth charts that we can refer to as we build our lineups or see what is affected by any news throughout the day, so make sure to take advantage of this page to keep you up to date on a variety of beneficial DFS info.
- The biggest injury news today is Stephen Curry out a few weeks with a shoulder injury along with Andrew Wiggins remaining out with his groin injury. Jordan Poole and Donte DiVincenzo should start at the guard spots and both are excellent plays today especially if Klay sits too.
- The other big new injury name is Clint Capela out 1-2 weeks with a calf strain so Onyeka Okongwu will start and be a very popular value play today especially with a great matchup against Charlotte.
- Gordon Hayward is on track to return today from his shoulder injury but I won’t be looking to use him in DFS even if he starts. His presence would slightly limit the ceiling of the other Hornets’ forwards. PJ Washington is out for personal reasons so Jalen McDaniels will likely start for him and is a more appealing play.
- Al Horford is back after the birth of his daughter so he should start even if Robert Williams plays making both guys hard to trust for upside in DFS.
- Royce ONeale is back from his absence for personal reasons so he will likely start and move Joe Harris back to the bench and in less important Nets news Patty Mills is out with an illness.
- OG Anunoby remains out for TOR while either Young or Koloko should continue to start at C. Gary Trent is also out with a quad injury so VanVleet, Banton, and all the available guards will absorb his minutes.
- Jeremiah Robinson-Earl is out indefinitely for OKC with an ankle sprain and Darius Bazley is out with an illness so look for Aleksej Pokusevski to start at C with Muscala as his main backup.
- My favorite games to stack and/or target today are MIN/OKC, ATL/CHA, SAC/DET, and DEN/LAL (along with GSW).
NBA DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for injuries, projected lineups, and top games to target, let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.
On FanDuel:
- ATL/CHA is up to a 240 total and just a -2.5 spread so we definitely want exposure to this game starting with Trae Young ($9,800) and Onyeka Okongwu ($5,200) as my favorite plays for the price. Young sees a massive usage rate with Murray and Collins out and now with Capela out as well he will have to carry even more offense and has 60+ FP upside today. Okongwu draws one of the best matchups for centers and has 8x p/$ upside today and should be one of the highest-owned players of the slate.
- For Charlotte LaMelo Ball ($8,000) is my favorite play for the price as he should be closer to $9k for someone with his upside and he saw 34 minutes in his first game back last game so there’s no concern there as far as his ankle goes. Ball went for almost 40 FP last game without any steals or blocks along with just one rebound so if he fills out the stat sheet in more ways today I think 40 FP is his floor and I don’t want to miss the 60+ FP upside he brings in the highest projected game total of the slate.
- Donte DiVincenzo ($5,300) saw 37 minutes as a starter last game and with Curry now out as well he should be looking at 35+ minutes again and is an excellent play at his current price. He’s averaging over 28 FPPG in his last five games and that should be his floor today with 7-9x value upside especially if Klay also ends up out. Jordan Poole ($7,700) saw a $1k price increase from last game but is still in play for cash games with Curry and Wiggins out and I will definitely be using him if Klay is out too.
- Zach LaVine ($7,300) is the same price and draws the same matchup as last game with the Knicks where he was solid going for over 36 FP in 41 minutes that included OT. He made just two 3’s and had only one steal so he still has plenty of upside available if he can make a few more threes and get a couple more steals. I like taking advantage of this reduced salary for him while we can.
- Julius Randle ($8,300) also draws the same matchup as last game with CHI where he went for over 51 FP in 46 minutes (includes 5 OT minutes) and his price only went up $100 so he is definitely a cash game option again as he should be closer to $9k with Toppin still out and a matchup we know he can dominate in.
Looking at DraftKings:
- Onyeka Okongwu ($4,700) is even cheaper than FD and will be in almost every cash game lineup today at that price so fade him at your own risk. Trae Young ($10,000) remains a top spend-up option while DeAndre Hunter ($5,100) and Jalen Johnson ($4,500) are other solid value options for ATL.
- LaMelo Ball ($8,000) is the same price as FD and remains a must-play for me until he gets closer to $9k while Donte DiVincenzo ($5,700) and Jordan Poole ($8,200) are a bit pricier than FD but still remain excellent targets especially if Klay ends up out.
- Zach LaVine ($7,300) actually went down another $100 and is a great high-upside target along with Julius Randle ($8,700) who’s price didn’t change at all after going for over 57 FP last game in the same matchup.
- Aleksej Pokusevski ($4,100) is worth mentioning as a DK-specific play as he’s $1,200 cheaper than FD and should draw the start at center with Bazley and JRE out. It’s still OKC so anything is possible as far as starters and rotations but if he starts and sees 30+ minutes he could smash that salary.
- Lamar Stevens ($3,500) is another almost min-price DK specific value play to consider coming off a 36+ FP game in a season-high 38 minutes and draws a nice matchup with Indy so if he goes for even 20+ FP he will smash his price tag.
Keep checking LineupHQ for any projections changes throughout the day, as the best p/$ plays could change in an instant if someone gets ruled out or some other type of news makes someone likely to see more or less minutes or usage.
NBA DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough lineup decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.
For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to follow the RotoGrinders NBA twitter feed, read our NBA DFS Alerts page, and watch NBA Crunch Time.
Good luck today!
Image Credit: Imagn