NBA DFS Projections Preview | DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Values 12/26/22

by Erik Wardenburg (naapstermaan) Last Updated 2022-12-26 19:47:34

Hope everyone had a great Holiday weekend and stayed safe in these crazy cold temperatures. We’re starting the week with a seven game slate with no teams on a back-to-back so we have all the injury reports, which includes Kawhi Leonard getting a rest day, a handful of Pelicans with questionable tags, and a big Heat starter in Bam Adebayo already ruled out

This is a daily weekday NBA article that can hopefully show you some lineup building tools on RG as well as provide some picks and analysis based on those tools.

Today’s FanDuel & DraftKings NBA DFS Projections Preview

There are ways to get edges in DFS NBA, such as tracking injury news right up to lock and swapping in top value plays if a questionable player gets ruled, knowing which teams are on a back-to-back and not fully rested, and adjusting to daily positional matchups and team pace matchups to always be targeting the players and teams with the highest daily upside. I will be focusing on the “main slate” each weekday, but you can still find plenty of analysis for any other slates including weekends on RG, and feel free to leave suggestions in the comments sections for any strategies / tools you’d like to see here!

This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for NBA, including our industry-leading NBA DFS projections and NBA lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!

NBA DFS Injury Roundup

Before we take a look at the projected lineups and picks for the day it’s important to get a feel for any injuries that we’ll need to monitor throughout the day and how these injuries will affect our builds if a questionable player ends up out. For cash games I’m looking for big minutes, high usage, and fast-paced games with bad defenses so knowing who is dealing with any kind of injury and might not get 30+ minutes is critical as well as how a regular starter being out will affect other players’ usage rates and if their replacement starter is worth using.

Looking at The Situation Room we can see who is definitely out, likely out, and questionable for today’s main slate and how it will affect lineups if certain questionable players end up sitting.

• Jimmy Butler, Gabe Vincent, and Udonis Haslem are questionable for Miami with the latter two guys not being very relevant for DFS. If Butler ends up out we would likely see Max Strus or Victor Oladipo start while Lowry and Herro would get nice usage bumps especially with Bam already out.

• Trey Murphy, Dyson Daniels, and Larry Nance are questionable for New Orleans so we could be looking at huge minutes and usage bumps for whoever ends up starting for them tonight. Naji Marshall would be the biggest beneficiary if any of those three end up out as he’s already likely to start for Zion and could push for 35+ minutes if Murphy or Nance sit. Devonte Graham could also be a top value play if Daniels and Murphy end up out as he’d likely start at SG and is basically minimum price on both sites.

• Kyle Anderson is questionable for Minnesota and if he remains out look for Austin Rivers to continue to start and be a pretty strong value play while Jaden McDaniels would also be looking at more minutes and have a higher ceiling.

• Aaron Nesmith & Jalen Smith are questionable for Indiana and if Nesmith is out we’d likely see Smith (if active) or Mathurin start with Brissett also getting a bump in minutes. If Smith ends up out Brissett and the other PF/Cs would absorb his minutes.

• John Wall is questionable for LAC and if out Jackson and Mann would get most of the PG minutes with Jackson being a more appealing play especially with Kawhi also out.

• Marvin Bagley is questionable for Detroit and if out his 20 or so bench minutes would be absorbed by Stewart, Duren, Bey, and Knox.

• Dennis Smith is questionable for Charlotte so if he returns he’ll get Maledon’s minutes and help at the guard spots otherwise Ball, Rozier, Oubre, and Maledon would remain the top PG/SGs.

• Seth Curry is questionable for the Nets and if out his minutes would be absorbed by all the available guards/wings.

• Javonte Green was upgraded to Q around 1:30PM so he could be available to help at the forward spots.

If you want to see how someone out will affect the rest of the team check out the Court IQ Tool where you can see what players’ usage rates and FPPM (fantasy points per minute) are for any team with certain teammates on or off the floor.

NBA Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Games to Target

Let’s take a look at NBA Starting Lineups to see any major lineup news, such as guys missing or interesting depth chart changes as well as which teams or games I’m looking to target. This page is my favorite tool for NBA DFS as we get betting lines, DFS salaries, projected ownership, and updated depth charts that we can refer to as we build our lineups or see what is affected by any news throughout the day, so make sure to take advantage of this page to keep you up to date on a variety of beneficial DFS info.

• Bam Adebayo is out with an illness today along with his backup Dewayne Dedmon so Orlando Robinson should get most of the center minutes even if he doesn’t start as he got 35 minutes off the bench the last game Adebayo was out and he is a top value play on all sites today. The other Heat starters are also much more appealing plays getting usage bumps especially if Butler ends up out as well.

• Zion Williamson is likely out as he ramps up his conditioning after coming out of covid protocols so Naji Marshall will likely start for him and is a top value play on all sites. Herb Jones is now out with an illness making Marshall an even better play while Dyson Daniels (if active), Trey Murphy (if active), and Devonte Graham will all help cover Jones’ minutes.

• Kawhi Leonard will sit on the front end of tomorrow’s b2b so Batum or Kennard will likely start for him while George and the other starters get nice usage bumps.

• Walker Kessler should continue to start for Olynyk along with Ayo Dosunmu for Caruso who remains in concussion protocol while Jones is likely out for CHI so Patrick Williams will have to play more PF minutes.

• Nick Richards is likely out for CHA so Plumlee and Washington get slight bumps in minutes while Jones and Thor will have to help at backup C.

• Justise Winslow remains out for POR so Watford and the other available forwards will all help cover his minutes.

• Joe Harris remains out for BKN so Curry and the other SG/SFs will absorb his time.

NBA DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Picks

With a good feel for injuries, projected lineups, and top games to target, let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.

If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.

On FanDuel:

• The Bulls are popping as top p/$ plays as they draw one of the better matchups in the league against Houston and the starters are seeing more minutes with Caruso and Jones out or likely still out today. DeMar DeRozan ($8,500) is the clear highest upside play for them and remains at a great price coming off a 57 FP game and he’s scored under 44 FP just twice in his last eight games. Zach LaVine ($7,400) and Nikola Vucevic ($7,900) are fine plays for the price with both having easy 40+ FP upside in this matchup while Ayo Dosunmu ($4,500) and Patrick Williams ($4,800) are seeing the biggest bump in minutes due to injuries and both are in play for value depending on your positional needs today.

• With Zion and Herb out for the Pelicans I’m going to be all over Naji Marshall ($5,000) as he should see 35+ minutes today and possibly closer to 40 if Murphy or Nance end up out as well. CJ McCollum ($8,800) will also have to carry a lot more offense today and is a top spend up play with 60+ FP upside in a projected high scoring, close game with Indiana.

• Walker Kessler ($6,000) saw over 30 minutes as a starter for the first time last game and if this trend continues he is definitely in play for cash games against the Spurs as this game has the 3rd highest total of the slate and just a 4.5 point spread. He does come with a sub-30 FP floor so there is risk in going too heavy on him but with a 6-7x value ceiling I would be fine using him in your main build if he fits with the rest of the lineup you like the most.

• If you want to go cheaper at center then I’d go with Orlando Robinson ($4,100) as he should see 30+ minutes regardless if he starts or not and the last game Adebayo was out he scored over 33 FP in 35 minutes off the bench. He’s already a great play but I would push him in to must play territory if Butler and Haslem end up out too.

• FanDuel just doesn’t want to price LaMelo Ball ($8,900) correctly as he’s gone for over 45 FP in four straight games and his price didn’t budge even after going for almost 50 FP last game which was three days ago. A rested Ball in the highest game total of the slate at a way too cheap salary is about as easy of a cash game play there is until he is priced closer to $10k.

• Ball’s opponent Portland is also a team to target for cash games as most of their starters are underpriced considering they have the highest team total of the slate in the highest game total of the slate against a Hornets team that just doesn’t really play any defense. Damian Lillard ($9,200) is one of the highest upside plays of the slate and is a great PG stack with Ball in cash games while Jerami Grant ($7,100) and Josh Hart ($5,900) are where I’d go to next for more Portland exposure. Jusuf Nurkic ($6,800) does have an excellent matchup but he’s only scored over 29 FP once in his last five games and at his price he’s more of a GPP play for me today.

• More plays I like for the price today include Ivica Zubac ($5,700), Marcus Morris ($5,100), DAngelo Russell ($7,200), Jeremy Sochan ($5,100), and Andrew Nembhard ($4,900).

Looking at DraftKings:

• DeMar DeRozan ($8,400) remains too cheap for this matchup with HOU and is one of the first guys I’m locking in to cash games while Ayo Dosunmu ($4,000) has seen 32 and 34 minutes the last two games with Caruso out and should see similar minutes today making him an excellent source of savings with 7-9x value upside.

• CJ McCollum ($8,600) and Naji Marshall ($4,800) are the next guys I’m locking in to my main build and I’m keeping Trey Murphy ($5,000), Dyson Daniels ($3,200), and Devonte Graham ($3,100) on my radar depending on the status of Murphy and Daniels and who ends up starting from that group.

• Orlando Robinson ($3,200) is looking like a free square on DK with Bam now out as his 30+ FP upside he showed the last time Bam sat is just too immense to fade for an almost minimum priced player so fade him at your own risk today.

• LaMelo Ball ($10,200) is finally priced correctly but I’d still consider him for cash games especially if Dennis Smith remains out as this game with Portland could really get crazy as far as points scored. Terry Rozier ($7,000) is also in play at a $600 discount to FD while Josh Hart ($5,600) and Jerami Grant ($6,900) remain my favorite plays from Portland for the price.

• At the PF/C spots I’m really liking Evan Mobley ($6,100) and Jabari Smith ($5,300) as Mobley is at his cheapest salary in over a month and Smith is coming off his best game of the year going for over 45 FP and his price only went up $100.

• Other DK plays to consider for cash games include Walker Kessler ($5,400), Ivica Zubac ($5,000), Jaden Ivey ($5,500), Jeremy Sochan ($4,500), and PJ Washington ($5,600).

Keep checking LineupHQ for any projections changes throughout the day, as the best p/$ plays could change in an instant if someone gets ruled out or some other type of news makes someone likely to see more or less minutes or usage.

NBA DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock

If you have any tough lineup decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.

For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to follow the RotoGrinders NBA twitter feed, read our NBA DFS Alerts page, and watch NBA Crunch Time.

Good luck today!

Image Credit: Imagn