NBA DFS Projections Preview | DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Values 12/6/22
Small three game slate today with the Heat and Mavericks on b2bs so we’ll see later if any guys will be rested or if any new names pop up on their injury reports.
This is a daily weekday NBA article that can hopefully show you some lineup building tools on RG as well as provide some picks and analysis based on those tools.
Today’s FanDuel & DraftKings NBA DFS Projections Preview
There are ways to get edges in DFS NBA, such as tracking injury news right up to lock and swapping in top value plays if a questionable player gets ruled, knowing which teams are on a back-to-back and not fully rested, and adjusting to daily positional matchups and team pace matchups to always be targeting the players and teams with the highest daily upside. I will be focusing on the “main slate” each weekday, but you can still find plenty of analysis for any other slates including weekends on RG, and feel free to leave suggestions in the comments sections for any strategies / tools you’d like to see here!
This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for NBA, including our industry-leading NBA DFS projections and NBA lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!
NBA DFS Injury Roundup
Before we take a look at the projected lineups and picks for the day it’s important to get a feel for any injuries that we’ll need to monitor throughout the day and how these injuries will affect our builds if a questionable player ends up out. For cash games I’m looking for big minutes, high usage, and fast-paced games with bad defenses so knowing who is dealing with any kind of injury and might not get 30+ minutes is critical as well as how a regular starter being out will affect other players’ usage rates and if their replacement starter is worth using.
Looking at The Situation Room we can see who is definitely out, likely out, and questionable for today’s main slate and how it will affect lineups if certain questionable players end up sitting.
- Jarrett Allen is questionable to return from his back contusion and if he does play it would move Diakite back to the bench and also limit the ceiling of Evan Mobley. If Allen remains out then I’d consider Mobley a top play while Diakite is just a placeholder starter not seeing many minutes. (Update: Allen is IN)
- Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Jeff Green are questionable for Denver and if KCP sits it would move Bruce Brown to SG and we’d likely see Davon Reed start at SF or potentially Jeff Green if he plays. (Update: Green is LIKELY IN)
- Victor Oladipo, Gabe Vincent, and Dewayne Dedmon are all questionable for Miami so Oladipo could be available to help at the guard spots. If Vincent sits looks for Highsmith, Robinson, and Smith to handle his bench minutes while Dedmon sitting would give more minutes to Jovic and possibly Haslem. Kyle Lowry is also now questionable and if out Tyler Herro would run point and be a top play while Adebayo will also be a top play and have to carry even more offense. (Update: Vincent and Dedmon are OUT, Lowry and Oladipo are IN)
- Wenyen Gabriel is Q for the Lakers and if out his minutes would be absorbed by Brown and Reaves. (Update: Gabriel is OUT)
If you want to see how someone out will affect the rest of the team check out the Court IQ Tool where you can see what players’ usage rates and FPPM (fantasy points per minute) are for any team with certain teammates on or off the floor.
NBA Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Games to Target
Let’s take a look at NBA Starting Lineups to see any major lineup news, such as guys missing or interesting depth chart changes as well as which teams or games I’m looking to target. This page is my favorite tool for NBA DFS as we get betting lines, DFS salaries, projected ownership, and updated depth charts that we can refer to as we build our lineups or see what is affected by any news throughout the day, so make sure to take advantage of this page to keep you up to date on a variety of beneficial DFS info.
- Jimmy Butler is out for Miami so Max Strus will likely start while Tyler Herro and Bam Adebayo are the highest upside Heat plays now. Victor Oladipo has a chance to play today too giving them some much needed guard depth.
- Michael Porter and Isaiah Livers are out so Bruce Brown will continue to start for DEN while Bey, Burks, and Knox will all cover Liver’s minutes for DET.
NBA DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for injuries, projected lineups, and top games to target, let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.
On FanDuel:
- With Porter still out and KCP questionable Bruce Brown ($5,600) is looking like an excellent play today as he’s seeing 34+ minutes and putting up solid fantasy lines as a starter. He should have a safe 25 FP floor which is solid for his price but he does bring 40+ FP upside which he has a great chance of hitting especially if KCP ends up out. Jamal Murray ($7,100) is also at a great price point and someone to target today.
- Tim Hardaway ($5,700) is still at a cheap enough salary to consider him a top value play today as he’s put up at least 25 FP in four straight games as a starter and should easily pay off his price in what should be a more competitive game today than yesterday’s blowout of the Suns.
- Dennis Schroder ($4,800) is another solid value option today as he looks to be a regular starter now so he should see 30+ minutes and although he doesn’t have the greatest ceiling with AD and LBJ active he still has a good chance of 5-6x value.
- Lamar Stevens ($3,700), Caleb Martin ($4,600), and Dorian Finney-Smith ($4,800) are other cheap options to consider today.
Looking at DraftKings:
- Tim Hardaway ($4,400) is by far my top value play on DK today as his price actually went down $200 from yesterday where he easily paid off his $4,600 tag in just 22 minutes. He will be a popular play but someone I can’t see fading in cash games.
- Bruce Brown ($6,100) is a bit more pricey compared to FD but still someone I will looking to use in cash games especially if KCP ends up out. Aaron Gordon ($5,900) is also in a play for value at a slight discount to FD.
- Dennis Schroder ($4,100) should be one of the higher-owned value plays on DK as he’s $700 cheaper than FD and is just too cheap for a starter seeing 30 minutes. Lonnie Walker ($4,600) is also a great value option as he’s $600 cheaper than FD and should be a safe 5-6x value guy.
Keep checking LineupHQ for any projections changes throughout the day, as the best p/$ plays could change in an instant if someone gets ruled out or some other type of news makes someone likely to see more or less minutes or usage.
NBA DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough lineup decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.
For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to follow the RotoGrinders NBA twitter feed, read our NBA DFS Alerts page, and watch NBA Crunch Time.
Good luck today!
Image Credit: Imagn