NBA DFS Projections Preview | DraftKings & FanDuel LineupHQ Optimizer Values 2/2/23
There are seven games on today’s main slate, and it will start with a bang as the Lakers/Pacers are the only 7PM game and currently have the highest projected game total and closest spread. A lot of that is due to the news of Tyrese Haliburton possibly returning from his ten game absence, along with the Lakers being at pretty much full strength if LeBron plays. On the other end of the spectrum are the Warriors and Grizzlies, who are both on a back-to-back and could rest some starters, so keep an eye out for their first injury reports later.
This is a daily weekday NBA article that can hopefully show you some lineup building tools on RG as well as provide some picks and analysis based on those tools.
Today’s FanDuel & DraftKings NBA DFS Projections Preview
There are ways to get edges in DFS NBA, such as tracking injury news right up to lock and swapping in top value plays if a questionable player gets ruled, knowing which teams are on a back-to-back and not fully rested, and adjusting to daily positional matchups and team pace matchups to always be targeting the players and teams with the highest daily upside. I will be focusing on the “main slate” each weekday, but you can still find plenty of analysis for any other slates including weekends on RG, and feel free to leave suggestions in the comments sections for any strategies / tools you’d like to see here!
This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for NBA, including our industry-leading NBA DFS projections and NBA lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!
NBA DFS Injury Roundup
Before we take a look at the projected lineups and picks for the day it’s important to get a feel for any injuries that we’ll need to monitor throughout the day and how these injuries will affect our builds if a questionable player ends up out. For cash games, I’m looking for big minutes, high usage, and fast-paced games with bad defenses so knowing who is dealing with any kind of injury and might not get 30+ minutes is critical as well as how a regular starter being out will affect other players’ usage rates and if their replacement starter is worth using.
Looking at The Situation Room we can see who is definitely out, likely out, and questionable for today’s main slate and how it will affect lineups if certain questionable players end up sitting.
- The Warriors are calling Stephen Curry and Draymond Green questionable tonight, so hopefully we learn their status before lock as their game tips 2 hours after lock. If Curry sits I’d consider Jordan Poole a top play of the slate while Ty Jerome could start and be a great value play as well. If Green sits then Kevon Looney likely starts at center and is a solid play while Kuminga will also see a bump in minutes.
- LeBron James has his usual questionable tag, but with this game sitting at the highest total and closest spread of the slate I’d assume he plays. If he does end up sitting then AD and Westbrook would be excellent plays while Schroder, Brown, and Hachimura would be more appealing value plays.
- Tyrese Haliburton seems closer to probable than his official questionable designation, so assuming he plays it’s going to be really hard to use any of the other Pacers players in DFS as their usage rates will take big time hits. Even if Haliburton doesn’t get full starters’ minutes he will still make this backcourt very crowded, so guys like Duarte, Hield, Mathurin, and McConnell will be GPP plays at best for me today. Daniel Theis is also questionable to make his season debut, and if active he’d likely see very limited minutes.
- Aaron Gordon is questionable with an ankle sprain, and if the Warriors do end up resting most of their starters, I could see Denver giving anyone with any injury the day off. If Gordon sits look for Bruce Brown to start at SF with Porter sliding to PF, while Green and Nnaji will also help more at PF.
- Caris LeVert is questionable with hamstring soreness, and if out Cedi Osman and Rubio would see a bump in bench minutes while Garland and Mitchell would likely see more minutes and usage as well.
- Ziaire Williams is questionable for Memphis, and if out all the available forwards would absorb his minutes.
If you want to see how someone out will affect the rest of the team check out the Court IQ Tool where you can see what players’ usage rates and FPPM (fantasy points per minute) are for any team with certain teammates on or off the floor.
NBA Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Games to Target
Let’s take a look at NBA Starting Lineups to see any major lineup news, such as guys missing or interesting depth chart changes as well as which teams or games I’m looking to target. This page is my favorite tool for NBA DFS as we get betting lines, DFS salaries, projected ownership, and updated depth charts that we can refer to as we build our lineups or see what is affected by any news throughout the day, so make sure to take advantage of this page to keep you up to date on a variety of beneficial DFS info.
- If Haliburton plays it should move McConnell back to the bench with Duarte likely sticking at SG for now. Beverley is probable to return after missing last game, and Davis should be the regular starting center as he’s back up to 35+ minutes and started last game. We’ll see what they do with Hachimura but I’d expect Troy Brown to continue to start at SF.
- The Heat lost Orlando Robinson to a broken thumb, so Dedmon should be the top backup center now, and Oladipo is out with an ankle sprain so Herro, Strus, Martin, and Vincent will see boosts in minutes.
- We’re projecting Xavier Tillman to start at C again for Memphis against the bigger frontcourt of Cleveland, while Santi Aldama or Brandon Clarke will likely start for Jaren Jackson who is doubtful.
- Klay Thompson is out on the b2b for Golden State, so DiVincenzo and the other wings will see a bump in minutes, while Kevon Looney could start at C, especially if Draymond ends up out.
NBA DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for injuries, projected lineups, and top games to target, let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.
On FanDuel:
- Assuming Curry and Klay are out and Ty Jerome ($3,700) starts, he will be the first guy I lock in to cash games as he saw 41 minutes and scored over 40 FP the last game he started, and is just too cheap for that kind of production if given the same opportunity today. If Jordan Poole ($7,000) plays and the other starters rest I’d consider him one of the best p/$ plays of the slate and a cash game lock at that price. Donte DiVincenzo ($5,300), Jonathan Kuminga ($4,400), and Kevon Looney ($5,000) would all be in play if they start and I will likely use at least one of those three along with Jerome and Poole in my main build. (Update: Only Klay is definitely out for the Warriors starters, so temper expectations on Poole and Jerome unless Curry ends up out too)
- If Xavier Tillman ($4,700) starts again for Memphis he will make my cash game lineup as his price didn’t change overnight after going for over 33 FP in 27 minutes yesterday. The Grizzlies could end up sitting some other starters on the b2b which would just make Tillman an even better value play.
- Zach LaVine ($7,400) was my headliner Tuesday and he went for almost 47 FP, and today his price is only $200 more from last game so I will be right back on him as he’s just too cheap for a 50+ upside player seeing 35-40 minutes playing in the second highest projected game total of the slate. LaMelo Bal ($8,700) was also a headliner Tuesday as he was a ridiculous $8k in salary, but even with the $700 price increase today he’s still at one of his lowest salaries in over a month, and we just saw his almost 70 FP upside last game so I don’t mind him at all in your main build today.
- Jarrett Allen ($6,700) is at his second cheapest salary of the season after dropping $300 more since last game, and against a Grizzlies team on a b2b Allen has a great shot at another 30+ FP game that has been his floor in four of his last five games. There is some blowout risk for CLE if Memphis does rest a bunch of starters, but Allen’s upside at one of his lowest prices of the season might be too much for me to fade in cash games especially with his PF/C dual eligibility.
- Right now the Heat are expected to have 10 players available, and even though their matchup with the Knicks is the lowest projected total of the slate, I still like the value Kyle Lowry ($4,900), Caleb Martin ($4,700), and even Max Strus ($4,500) offer today with Martin being my favorite of those three in cash games. Bam Adebayo ($8,500) is also a very appealing cash game target as he’s at his cheapest salary since November, has PF/C eligibility, and just lost his top backup in Orlando Robinson so he could push for 40+ minutes.
Looking at DraftKings:
- Ty Jerome ($3,000) has a comical 9x value p/$ projection right now and will likely be in almost every cash game lineup if he starts today. Jordan Poole ($6,500) has almost a 7x value projection and should also be in pretty much every cash game lineup if he plays and the other main Warriors guys sit. Jonathan Kuminga ($3,700) would be my next favorite Warriors player if he starts while Kevon Looney ($4,600) and Donte DiVincenzo ($5,200) are also strong plays if they start. (Update: Only Klay is definitely out for the Warriors starters, so temper expectations on Poole and Jerome unless Curry ends up out too)
- Xavier Tillman ($4,200) remains a top value play if he starts again while Jarrett Allen ($6,300) isn’t as much of a value as he is on FD today but he’s definitely still in play at that price.
- For the Heat, Caleb Martin ($4,500) is still my favorite value play for them, but Max Strus ($3,600) is looking like an excellent GPP play if he doesn’t make your main build as he’s $900 cheaper than FD and could be looking at 25+ minutes even off the bench today. Bam Adebayo ($7,900) saw a $400 drop in price from last game and is under $8k for the first time since early November, so I’m expecting him to be a pretty popular play given how thin the Heat are at big man today and the 50+ FP upside he brings to any matchup.
- I prefer Terry Rozier ($7,300) over Ball on DK as Rozier saw a $700 price drop from last game, even after another 34+ FP game which he’s done in 14 of his last 15 games. Rozier also gets a rematch with CHI from a week ago in which he put up almost 50 FP, so for his likely 5x value floor and 7x+ ceiling he will be hard to fade in cash game lineups today. I like betting the over on his 22.5 points line at No House Advantage today, and be sure to check out our No House Advantage bonus offer for new signups.
Keep checking LineupHQ for any projections changes throughout the day, as the best p/$ plays could change in an instant if someone gets ruled out or some other type of news makes someone likely to see more or less minutes or usage.
NBA DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough lineup decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.
For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to follow the RotoGrinders NBA twitter feed, read our NBA DFS Alerts page, and watch NBA Crunch Time.
Good luck today!
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