NBA DFS Projections Preview | DraftKings & FanDuel LineupHQ Optimizer Values 2/8/23
We have a big nine game Wednesday slate that will see the Mavericks debut for Kyrie Irving, with only the Timberwolves on a back-to-back and I’m expecting a few guys to be questionable for them when we get their first injury report later. The Spurs, Wizards, and Cavaliers all have some questionable starters, so they’ll be important teams to monitor as the day goes on, and we could also be in for potential trades as the deadline approaches tomorrow, so there are many ways today’s slate can be flipped on it’s head, but let’s get in to what we know now and some guys I’m liking for cash games before any news breaks.
This is a daily weekday NBA article that can hopefully show you some lineup building tools on RG as well as provide some picks and analysis based on those tools.
Today’s FanDuel & DraftKings NBA DFS Projections Preview
There are ways to get edges in DFS NBA, such as tracking injury news right up to lock and swapping in top value plays if a questionable player gets ruled, knowing which teams are on a back-to-back and not fully rested, and adjusting to daily positional matchups and team pace matchups to always be targeting the players and teams with the highest daily upside. I will be focusing on the “main slate” each weekday, but you can still find plenty of analysis for any other slates including weekends on RG, and feel free to leave suggestions in the comments sections for any strategies / tools you’d like to see here!
This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for NBA, including our industry-leading NBA DFS projections and NBA lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!
NBA DFS Injury Roundup
Before we take a look at the projected lineups and picks for the day it’s important to get a feel for any injuries that we’ll need to monitor throughout the day and how these injuries will affect our builds if a questionable player ends up out. For cash games I’m looking for big minutes, high usage, and fast-paced games with bad defenses so knowing who is dealing with any kind of injury and might not get 30+ minutes is critical as well as how a regular starter being out will affect other players’ usage rates and if their replacement starter is worth using.
Looking at The Situation Room we can see who is definitely out, likely out, and questionable for today’s main slate and how it will affect lineups if certain questionable players end up sitting.
- Joel Embiid has his usual questionable tag with foot soreness, and if he sits we’d see a combination of Harrell, Reed, and Tucker handling the center minutes, while James Harden would see a big usage bump and be a top play, while Harris, Melton, and Maxey would all be more appealing plays as well.
- Until we get Minnesota’s injury report I’d consider Rudy Gobert, Kyle Anderson, and Jordan McLaughlin all questionable, as Gobert has had the label almost every game the last week, Anderson sat out yesterday, and McLaughlin could rest on the b2b as he returns from injury. Naz Reid would likely start if either Gobert or Anderson sit as he started at PF yesterday, and if both are out I’d expect Prince and Reid to start in the frontcourt. McLaughlin sitting would give more minutes to Nowell and the other guards.
- Bradley Beal & Kyle Kuzma are questionable for Washington, and if both are out I’d consider Kristaps Porzingis a top play of the slate as he sees a 32% usage rate and scores 1.37 FPPM with those two off the floor this season. Daniel Gafford also sees a .15 FPPM increase and draws a great matchup for big men against Charlotte. Monte Morris is now questionable as well, so Delon Wright would likely start if he sits. (Update: Morris & Kuzma are OUT, Beal is IN)
- Tre Jones & Keldon Johnson are questionable for San Antonio, and if both are out Malaki Branham would be a top value play looking at 30+ minutes, while Josh Richardson would likely start alongside him in the backcourt and be a very solid play for the price as he sees a team high +3.9% usage bump with both off the floor. Stanley Johnson could also see a start with both out, and he’d have to be considered a top value play at his current salaries if so. (Update: Jones is OUT, Keldon is IN)
- Darius Garland and Donovan Mitchell are now questionable for Cleveland, and if either are out I would consider Caris LeVert a must play in all formats on all sites. If both are out we’d likely see Raul Neto and LeVert start in the backcourt. Jarrett Allen also benefits a ton with both Garland and Mitchell off the floor, as he sees a +9.3% usage bump and scores an additional .18 FPPM. (Update: Garland and Mitchell are OUT)
- Al Horford and Robert Williams are questionable for Boston, so Blake Griffin and Luke Kornet could be looking at most of the center minutes if both bigs sit, while Grant Williams will help a lot at PF if Horford sits. (Update: Horford and Williams are OUT)
If you want to see how someone out will affect the rest of the team check out the Court IQ Tool where you can see what players’ usage rates and FPPM (fantasy points per minute) are for any team with certain teammates on or off the floor.
NBA Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Games to Target
Let’s take a look at NBA Starting Lineups to see any major lineup news, such as guys missing or interesting depth chart changes as well as which teams or games I’m looking to target. This page is my favorite tool for NBA DFS as we get betting lines, DFS salaries, projected ownership, and updated depth charts that we can refer to as we build our lineups or see what is affected by any news throughout the day, so make sure to take advantage of this page to keep you up to date on a variety of beneficial DFS info.
- The Heat will be without Lowry & Oladipo again, so Gabe Vincent should start at PG and is a solid play for the price with the likely 34+ minutes he’ll see in a nice matchup with Indiana. The guard depth behind him and Herro is down to Max Strus and newly signed Jamaree Bouyea who is expected to be available today.
- The Mavericks remain without Doncic, Kleber, and Bertans today, but will have newly traded for Kyrie Irving and Markieff Morris available to make their debuts. With Irving available it’s hard to be excited about targeting any other Mavs player outside of him, especially since Christian Wood will likely see more than the 18 minutes he got last game in his first game back from his thumb injury, and we’ll see if he comes off the bench again or starts for Bullock.
- Jaylen Brown and Luke Kornet are expected back for Boston after both sat last game, so Hauser goes back to the bench after his spot start and the other starters take usage and ceiling hits with Brown back.
- Vassell, Langford and Sochan remain out for the Spurs, so Branham and Bates-Diop should continue to start and be solid plays, especially if either Tre or Keldon end up out too.
NBA DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for injuries, projected lineups, and top games to target, let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.
On FanDuel:
- The Heat are where I’m starting in cash games, as they should be looking at just an eight or nine man rotation today, and their salaries are too cheap in a home matchup against the Pacers. Gabe Vincent ($4,200) saw 34 minutes as a starter last game, and went for around 5x value even in a tough matchup with the Bucks, and today draws a much better matchup at just $300 more salary than last game, making him one of my favorite value plays of the slate. I could make a case for all the other Heat projected starters as cash game plays, but we can only use four players from a single team, so depending on salary and positional needs as the day goes on, I will likely end with at least 2-3 Heat starters in my main build and possibly four.
- The Raptors are also in a great spot at home against the Spurs, and with the current second highest projected team total of the slate, I’d look to get either Fred VanVleet ($8,900) or Pascal Siakam ($8,600) in your main build. Both could pay off their salaries before the 4th quarter, and if the Spurs can keep this game relatively close and they both get 38+ minutes, then I’d expect each to go for 50+ FP with a good shot at at least one of them hitting 60+ FP, and for under $9k each that upside is too high to fade both for me in cash games. Precious Achiuwa ($6,300) and Gary Trent ($6,000) would be my next favorite TOR targets if you want cheaper exposure to them.
- Portland and Golden State also have two of the highest team totals of the slate, so I’d get exposure to both sides of this game in your main build as its sitting at a 236.5 total with just a 2.5 point spread currently. Jordan Poole ($7,600) remains too cheap with Curry out, especially after going for almost 40 FP in a blowout of OKC last game in which he only saw 29 minutes, while Andrew Wiggins ($6,300), Klay Thompson ($7,800) and Draymond Green ($7,500) are all in play depending on your salary and positional needs today. I’m going to do my best to fit Damian Lillard ($10,000) in cash games, but if I need to go cheaper for POR exposure I’ll be looking to Anfernee Simons ($6,400) or Josh Hart ($5,800).
- Lastly I have to keep going back to Malaki Branham ($5,300) as he only went up $500 in salary after another 25+ FP game in over 30 minutes as a starter, and I will definitely be on Josh Richardson ($5,700) again if either Tre or Keldon end up out and he draws the start. Jakob Poeltl ($6,700) only went up $200 after his third straight game of 32+ FP, and should be a solid cash game center in a revenge game with TOR, looking at a potential big usage bump if Tre and/or Keldon sit.
Looking at DraftKings:
- Gabe Vincent ($4,300) and Jordan Poole ($7,100) remain the first guys I’m locking in to cash games, while Caleb Martin ($4,800) and Andrew Wiggins ($6,000) are going to be hard to fade at those prices for more MIA & GSW exposure. Also make sure to check out our Boom Fantasy promo code for new signups, and I like betting the over 23.5 pts+rebs+asts line for Wiggins there today.
- Malaki Branham ($5,000) is the next guy I’m locking in as he remains just too cheap for a starter seeing 30+ minutes, and will be looking at 35+ FP upside if Tre and Keldon sit. Jakob Poeltl ($6,100) is my next favorite Spurs target as he only went up $200 and is too cheap for a player with 40+ FP upside.
- Walker Kessler ($5,700) comes at a huge $1,500 discount to FD, and with Vanderbilt likely out as he remains in trade talks, he should push for around 30 minutes and is at a great salary for someone who’s scored 33+ FP in three of his last four games.
- More DK value plays to consider today include Mike Conley ($5,900), Daniel Gafford ($5,400), DeAnthony Melton ($4,600), Keita Bates-Diop ($4,600), Terance Mann ($4,000), and Isaac Okoro ($3,900),
Keep checking LineupHQ for any projections changes throughout the day, as the best p/$ plays could change in an instant if someone gets ruled out or some other type of news makes someone likely to see more or less minutes or usage.
NBA DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough lineup decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.
For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to follow the RotoGrinders NBA twitter feed, read our NBA DFS Alerts page, and watch NBA Crunch Time.
Good luck today!
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