NBA DFS Projections Preview | DraftKings & FanDuel LineupHQ Optimizer Values 1/12/23

by Erik Wardenburg (naapstermaan) Last Updated 2023-01-12 23:32:20

Six games on today’s main slate with four games tipping at 7:30PM EST or earlier and the last two tipping at 10PM EST. The Bucks and Celtics are on a back-to-back so we could see some guys resting for both teams but we’ll find out for sure when we get their first injury reports later. The Heat will once again be down to 9 players today so plenty of value and big minutes to be had there, and we will get our first look at the Nets without Durant, with Kyrie Irving looking at a big time usage bump and he just so happens to have a revenge game against Boston. The final two games of the night will definitely change some cash lines in DFS as we have Doncic vs. LeBron in the highest projected game total of the slate, as well as a questionable Lillard that could make Anfernee Simons a top swap option if we don’t get that news until after lock.

This is a daily weekday NBA article that can hopefully show you some lineup building tools on RG as well as provide some picks and analysis based on those tools.

Today’s FanDuel & DraftKings NBA DFS Projections Preview

There are ways to get edges in DFS NBA, such as tracking injury news right up to lock and swapping in top value plays if a questionable player gets ruled, knowing which teams are on a back-to-back and not fully rested, and adjusting to daily positional matchups and team pace matchups to always be targeting the players and teams with the highest daily upside. I will be focusing on the “main slate” each weekday, but you can still find plenty of analysis for any other slates including weekends on RG, and feel free to leave suggestions in the comments sections for any strategies / tools you’d like to see here!

This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for NBA, including our industry-leading NBA DFS projections and NBA lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!

NBA DFS Injury Roundup

Before we take a look at the projected lineups and picks for the day it’s important to get a feel for any injuries that we’ll need to monitor throughout the day and how these injuries will affect our builds if a questionable player ends up out. For cash games I’m looking for big minutes, high usage, and fast-paced games with bad defenses so knowing who is dealing with any kind of injury and might not get 30+ minutes is critical as well as how a regular starter being out will affect other players’ usage rates and if their replacement starter is worth using.

Looking at The Situation Room we can see who is definitely out, likely out, and questionable for today’s main slate and how it will affect lineups if certain questionable players end up sitting.

• Damian Lillard is questionable with an ankle sprain, and if out I would consider Anfernee Simons the best p/$ play of the entire slate as he’s at one of his cheapest salary points of the season and would be looking at a big time usage bump, along with the fact he’s been getting 40+ minutes with Lillard in over the last three games. Hart, Grant, and Nurkic would all be more appealing plays as well if Lillard sits.

• Jaylen Brown is questionable for Boston on the b2b, and if out Grant Williams would likely start and be a decent value play while Jayson Tatum would get a big usage bump and have a huge ceiling. (Update: Brown is OUT)

• In the DAL/LAL game we have Dwight Powell questionable with a hip contusion and Patrick Beverley questionable with hip soreness. If their hips don’t lie and they end up out look for Christian Wood to get most of the C minutes with Bullock likely starting at PF, and Max Christie as a strong candidate to start while Nunn and Brown would also help at SG. (Update: Beverley is OUT)

• Ricky Rubio is questionable to return for CLE, and if does end up available he’d be looking at 12-15 minutes off the bench which would likely take Neto out of the rotation.

If you want to see how someone out will affect the rest of the team check out the Court IQ Tool where you can see what players’ usage rates and FPPM (fantasy points per minute) are for any team with certain teammates on or off the floor.

NBA Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Games to Target

Let’s take a look at NBA Starting Lineups to see any major lineup news, such as guys missing or interesting depth chart changes as well as which teams or games I’m looking to target. This page is my favorite tool for NBA DFS as we get betting lines, DFS salaries, projected ownership, and updated depth charts that we can refer to as we build our lineups or see what is affected by any news throughout the day, so make sure to take advantage of this page to keep you up to date on a variety of beneficial DFS info.

• The Heat will be without Herro, Lowry, Martin, D. Robinson, Jovic, and Dedmon today but Bam Adebayo will be available. They should have 9 players available today so look for Gabe Vincent, Max Strus, and Haywood Highsmith to start again alongside Butler and Adebayo.

• The Bucks will be without Giannis, Allen, and Ingles today so Bobby Portis will likely start and is a top play in all formats at his currently salaries while MarJon Beauchamp likely starts at SG for Allen and is a decent value play.

• With Kevin Durant out Joe Harris will join the starting lineup and is a very strong value play at his current salaries.

• Al Horford is out for rest on the b2b so Robert Williams should start at C and is a decent play on DK for $4,700. Marcus Smart is off the injury report and will be available after missing the last two games.

• The Thunder went with Eugene Omoruyi as the starting center last game but he only saw 16 minutes as Kenrich Williams and Mike Muscala continue to split time at C too. Whoever they start at C today will be a risky play especially going against Embiid. (Update: Jaylin Williams is starting at C making this spot even more murky as he’s been a DNP the last couple games)

NBA DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Picks

With a good feel for injuries, projected lineups, and top games to target, let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.

If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.

On FanDuel:

• Kyrie Irving ($9,300) went up $500 in salary but that’s still not enough given the big usage bump he’ll see with Durant out, so I am going to take advantage of this price while we still can as he will almost certainly be above $10k in the next few games. He’s currently projected to play the most minutes of anyone today (39) with the 4th highest projected ceiling, and he’s $1,700-$2,900 cheaper than the three players with higher projected ceilings making him a value in my eyes today. Ben Simmons ($6,800) will also see a big usage bump and has a higher ceiling while Royce ONeale ($5,100) and Seth Curry ($5,000) should easily pay off their salaries if you need someone in their price range at those positions.

• The Heat are the next team I want exposure to in cash games as they should run another tight rotation with most of their starters seeing close to 40 minutes. Gabe Vincent ($4,100) is the best value for them as he should start at PG and will likely see similar minutes to the 39 he got last game, but he does come with a pretty low ceiling especially with Adebayo available. Speaking of Bam Adebayo ($8,600) he should be well rested after getting four days of rest and his salary has dipped $600 since he last played, putting him in play as a top p/$ option at the PF/C positions and like Kyrie he has one of the best ceiling/salary ratios of anyone today. Jimmy Butler ($9,200) should also be a popular play but his ceiling does take a slight hit with Adebayo in while Max Strus ($5,500) and Victor Oladipo ($5,800) are solid plays for those prices that should go for around 5-6x value in this spot.

• DAL/LAL should be a really close and high scoring game so I would make Luka Doncic ($12,200) a priority in cash games today and I also like the price of Tim Hardaway ($5,200) for some cheap exposure to Dallas. If you can fit LeBron James ($11,000) by all means do it, but for way cheaper I like Troy Brown ($3,800) who is likely to return from his quad strain and could start right away and see 20-30 minutes at almost minimum price. Max Christie ($3,800) is another almost minimum price play from this game that will help you fit in the studs, and he could even start if Beverley gets ruled out.

• With the news of Giannis, Allen, and Ingles out for MIL I will absolutely be using Bobby Portis ($6,400) in my cash game lineup as he should start and see 30+ minutes giving him a huge ceiling, as he’s been averaging over 30 FPPG off the bench the last couple weeks. Jrue Holiday ($7,300) also becomes an excellent play at that price having to carry a lot more offense while Pat Connaughton ($4,700) should easily pay off his salary with less wing depth behind him now.

• Lastly I think it could be worth going with Anfernee Simons ($6,000) and Josh Hart ($6,300) even if we don’t know the status of Lillard after lock. Both are at great prices and are averaging around 27-35 FPPG over the last week, and if Lillard does get ruled out way after lock time they could be looking at way lower ownership than they would have if we get the Lillard news before lock. Even if Lillard plays both are at prices where I’d still be happy having them in cash games in what should be a competitive game with CLE.

Looking at DraftKings:

• Kyrie Irving ($8,800) remains my top p/$ play while Seth Curry ($3,500) comes at a big discount to FD and will definitely be in my cash game lineup if he draws the start. Ben Simmons ($5,400) comes at a $1,400 discount to FD and I’d expect him to be one of the higher owned cash game plays as he should have a 6x value floor at that price with a 7-9x ceiling.

• Gabe Vincent ($4,000) went up $700 but is still a top value play while Jimmy Butler ($9,700) and Bam Adebayo ($9,100) are both $500 more expensive than FD, so I will likely go with just one of them in cash games so I can spend up on Luka Doncic ($12,800). Max Strus ($5,300) went up $800 from last game but has 35+ FP upside as he should see over 40 minutes and is one of my favorite p/$ plays today on DK.

• Troy Brown ($4,300) remains at a cheap enough price to consider him for cash games while Anfernee Simons ($6,500) and Josh Hart ($6,000) also remain at prices that I don’t mind locking both in to your main build regardless of Lillard’s status, but both would be extremely high upside and popular plays if we learn Lillard is out before lock. I’d also include Jusuf Nurkic ($6,800) in that conversation as he’s $1,200 cheaper than FD and would have 7-9x upside if Lillard sits.

• Pat Connaughton ($3,700) is now a top value play of the slate with Giannis out as he should crush value at that price, while Bobby Portis ($6,300) remains one of my favorite p/$ plays of the slate and Jrue Holiday ($7,700) has a much higher ceiling as the top offensive weapon now.

Keep checking LineupHQ for any projections changes throughout the day, as the best p/$ plays could change in an instant if someone gets ruled out or some other type of news makes someone likely to see more or less minutes or usage.

NBA DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock

If you have any tough lineup decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.

For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to follow the RotoGrinders NBA twitter feed, read our NBA DFS Alerts page, and watch NBA Crunch Time.

Good luck today!

Image Credit: Imagn