NBA DFS Projections Preview | DraftKings & FanDuel LineupHQ Optimizer Values 1/17/23
Small four game slate today starting at 7:30PM EST, with the two teams on a back-to-back facing each other in the Raptors and Bucks. BKN/SAS & POR/DEN should both be pretty straightforward as far as starting lineups go, while PHI/LAC in the final game of the night could see the return of Paul George, and hopefully we learn his status much earlier than the 10PM tip.
This is a daily weekday NBA article that can hopefully show you some lineup building tools on RG as well as provide some picks and analysis based on those tools.
Today’s FanDuel & DraftKings NBA DFS Projections Preview
There are ways to get edges in DFS NBA, such as tracking injury news right up to lock and swapping in top value plays if a questionable player gets ruled, knowing which teams are on a back-to-back and not fully rested, and adjusting to daily positional matchups and team pace matchups to always be targeting the players and teams with the highest daily upside. I will be focusing on the “main slate” each weekday, but you can still find plenty of analysis for any other slates including weekends on RG, and feel free to leave suggestions in the comments sections for any strategies / tools you’d like to see here!
This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for NBA, including our industry-leading NBA DFS projections and NBA lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!
NBA DFS Injury Roundup
Before we take a look at the projected lineups and picks for the day it’s important to get a feel for any injuries that we’ll need to monitor throughout the day and how these injuries will affect our builds if a questionable player ends up out. For cash games I’m looking for big minutes, high usage, and fast-paced games with bad defenses so knowing who is dealing with any kind of injury and might not get 30+ minutes is critical as well as how a regular starter being out will affect other players’ usage rates and if their replacement starter is worth using.
Looking at The Situation Room we can see who is definitely out, likely out, and questionable for today’s main slate and how it will affect lineups if certain questionable players end up sitting.
- The Bucks have listed Giannis out today, but everyone else should be available on the b2b, besides Middleton and Ibaka who remain out.
- The Raptors look to have everyone available on the back-to-back even after all their starters played over 40 minutes yesterday, with only Otto Porter and Dalano Banton listed as out today.
- Kyrie Irving is now questionable with calf soreness, and if out I would consider Ben Simmons the must play of the slate on all sites while Royce ONeale and Nic Claxton would be even better plays, and Joe Harris / Seth Curry would be more appealing value options. (Update: Irving is OUT)
- Paul George is questionable to return from his hamstring soreness, and if available I would be much less inclined to pay up for Kawhi Leonard or trust Terance Mann to have a ceiling game. If George remains out then those two would be much more appealing plays, and Nicolas Batum would likely keep starting for him and be a decent play at his current salaries.
- Bones Hyland is questionable for Denver, and if out Bruce Brown would see a bump in minutes as the top bench guard, while Christian Braun would also get a bump in time and Ish Smith could crack the rotation. Vlatko Cancar is also questionable and if he remains out Brown and Nnaji would get most of his time.
- Jamal Murray was downgraded from probable to questionable around 3:30PM EST, so Bruce Brown could be looking at a big time role if Murray and Hyland both end up out. If Murray sits and Hyland plays then Hyland would be a very strong play while all the starters get nice usage bumps.
- Doug McDermott is questionable for the Spurs, and if out Malaki Branham and Stanley Johnson would absorb most of his minutes. (Update: McDermott is IN)
If you want to see how someone out will affect the rest of the team check out the Court IQ Tool where you can see what players’ usage rates and FPPM (fantasy points per minute) are for any team with certain teammates on or off the floor.
NBA Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Games to Target
Let’s take a look at NBA Starting Lineups to see any major lineup news, such as guys missing or interesting depth chart changes as well as which teams or games I’m looking to target. This page is my favorite tool for NBA DFS as we get betting lines, DFS salaries, projected ownership, and updated depth charts that we can refer to as we build our lineups or see what is affected by any news throughout the day, so make sure to take advantage of this page to keep you up to date on a variety of beneficial DFS info.
- TOR should start the usual five with no starters even listed Q on their first injury, while Bobby Portis will likely start for Giannis who is the only MIL player outside of Middleton and Ibaka confirmed out today.
- With Irving out Seth Curry will start at PG along with the other usual four that have been with Durant out, the Spurs should continue to start Langford with Vassell out, and POR/DEN should both start their usual starting five (unless Murray is out).
- Philly went with DeAnthony Melton starting over Tyrese Maxey last game so they’ll likely continue doing that until we see otherwise, and LAC will remain without Luke Kennard and John Wall so their only moving pieces tonight would be Batum likely starting if George ends up out.
NBA DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for injuries, projected lineups, and top games to target, let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.
On FanDuel:
- Kyrie Irving ($9,300) remains underpriced with Durant out, and today’s matchup with the Spurs is a great spot for him to really show his ceiling as the top offensive weapon. If he can start hitting more threes (just 4 for his last 18) I think he has an easy 40+ FP floor today and he has as high of a ceiling as anyone under $10k today. (Kyrie is now OUT so I like a pivot to Lillard or Harden for a spend up PG)
- Between the other Nets players I’d rank them in priority as Ben Simmons ($6,900), Seth Curry ($4,900), Nic Claxton ($7,200), and Royce ONeale ($5,900) and will likely end up with at least three of them in my main build with Kyrie now out.
- On the other side of that game Keldon Johnson ($6,600) is at his cheapest salary since November, and although he hasn’t had a 40+ FP game in almost two months, he is at a price point where 35+ FP would be great. A home matchup with a Durant-less Nets is a spot where he should fill up the stat sheet in a variety of ways, in what should be a pretty competitive and high scoring game, so I will be taking advantage of this price dip before it goes back up to $7k+ when he has a ceiling game. Jakob Poeltl ($7,000), Tre Jones ($6,800), and Jeremy Sochan ($5,100) are all fine plays for the price if you want more Spurs exposure.
- Jerami Grant ($6,800) is at his cheapest salary in over two months and is my favorite target from POR for the price in the projected highest scoring game of the night with DEN. Josh Hart ($6,000) is also a super solid play at a great price and for DEN I’m liking Jamal Murray ($7,400) who saw a $600 price decrease from last game and could have less depth behind him if Hyland ends up out.
- With Giannis out Jrue Holiday ($7,900) becomes a free square at that price as he went down $100 in salary after going for over 60 FP yesterday and will have to carry most of the offense again today. Grayson Allen ($4,500) and Pat Connaughton ($4,900) remain solid value plays for MIL and Bobby Portis ($6,800) is an excellent play as a likely starter today.
- I love the price of Fred VanVleet ($7,100) who went down $1,100 in salary from yesterday for some unknown reason and should be one of the highest owned players in cash games at that price. Scottie Barnes ($8,000) remains a great high-upside play while OG Anunoby ($7,000) is my third favorite TOR target for the price.
Looking at DraftKings:
- Ben Simmons ($5,900) is $1k cheaper than FD and the first guy I’m locking in to cash games on DK especially with Irving now out, while Royce ONeale ($5,500) also comes at a slight discount to FD and with four straight games of 29+ FP he is a great salary saver with 6-7x value upside. Warren is a bit too expensive at over $5k to consider in cash games, while Joe Harris ($4,200) and Seth Curry ($4,300) are at excellent prices with Curry a top value now that he will be starting.
- I’m not as excited about Keldon Johnson ($7,400) on DK as I am on FD as his DK salary went up $600 from last game and he’s just a bit too expensive to trust in cash games. For San Antonio I prefer going cheap with Jeremy Sochan ($4,700) and/or Josh Richardson ($4,500) as both have 30+ FP upside and won’t kill your lineup at those salaries if they have a 15-20 FP game. Jakob Poeltl ($6,200) is also looking like a great option at center coming at an $800 discount to FD.
- Josh Hart ($5,600) and Michael Porter ($5,400) are my favorite plays for the price from the POR/DEN game, while Fred VanVleet ($7,800), Scottie Barnes ($7,700), Jrue Holiday ($8,000), Grayson Allen ($4,600), Bobby Portis ($7,000), and Brook Lopez ($5,800) are my favorite p/$ plays from TOR & MIL.
Keep checking LineupHQ for any projections changes throughout the day, as the best p/$ plays could change in an instant if someone gets ruled out or some other type of news makes someone likely to see more or less minutes or usage.
NBA DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough lineup decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.
For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to follow the RotoGrinders NBA twitter feed, read our NBA DFS Alerts page, and watch NBA Crunch Time.
Good luck today!
Image Credit: Imagn