NBA DFS Projections Preview | DraftKings & FanDuel LineupHQ Optimizer Values 3/22/23

by Erik Wardenburg (naapstermaan) Last Updated 2023-03-22 23:03:08

We’re in for a wild Wednesday with a ton of injury news, three teams on a back-to-back, and ten games with the majority currently at projected totals above 230 and spreads of 5 or less. The Wizards, Hawks, and Spurs are the b2b teams so look for their first injury reports later, and I’m expecting Kuzma to remain out, Murray to be questionable at best, and the Spurs to have at least a few guys out for rest. Ja Morant is the biggest name returning today as he’s back from his suspension, but he might not get full minutes and could even play off the bench, so don’t be surprised if he isn’t the typical Ja on the court for at least a couple of games.

This is a daily weekday NBA article that can hopefully show you some lineup-building tools on RG and provide some picks and analysis based on those tools.

Today’s FanDuel & DraftKings NBA DFS Projections Preview

There are ways to get edges in DFS NBA, such as tracking injury news right up to lock and swapping in top value plays if a questionable player gets ruled, knowing which teams are on a back-to-back and not fully rested, and adjusting to daily positional matchups and team pace matchups to always be targeting the players and teams with the highest daily upside. I will focus on the “main slate” each weekday, but you can still find plenty of analysis for any other slates, including weekends on RG.

This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for NBA, including our industry-leading NBA DFS projections and NBA lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!

NBA DFS Injury Roundup

Before we look at the projected lineups and picks for the day, it’s important to get a feel for any injuries we’ll need to monitor throughout the day and how they will affect our builds if a questionable player ends up out. I’m looking for big minutes, high usage, and fast-paced games with bad defenses for cash games. Knowing who is dealing with any injury and might not get 30+ minutes is critical, as well as how a regular starter being out will affect other players’ usage rates and if their replacement starter is worth using.

Looking at The Situation Room, we can see who is out, likely out, and questionable for today’s main slate and how it will affect lineups if certain questionable players end up sitting.

• For now, I’d consider Dejounte Murray questionable with the illness that kept him out yesterday, and if he remains out, I’d expect Bogdanovic to start again, while Trae Young would once again be a top play of the slate. Bogdanovic is officially questionable for rest on the b2b, so we’d likely see Griffin or Holiday start at SG with Murray now out. (Update: Murray is OUT)

• Doncic and Irving are questionable for Dallas, so Kleber could continue to start if one of them is out, while Hardy would almost certainly start if both are out. Christian Wood will also be a much more appealing play if either is out, as he’s gone for 35+ FP in three straight games. Tim Hardaway Jr. is now questionable with an illness, so Dallas could be even thinner at guard if he ends up out along with Doncic or Irving. (Update: Doncic is IN, Irving and Hardaway are OUT)

• Bradley Beal is now questionable with knee soreness, so with Kuzma already out Beal sitting would make Avdija and Porzingis top plays of the slate. (Update: Beal is OUT)

• Haliburton and Duarte are questionable for the Pacers, so look for Mathurin to start again if Haliburton remains out, while Duarte sitting would give a few more minutes to all the SG/SFs. (Update: Haliburton and Duarte are OUT)

• Markkanen is questionable for Utah after sitting last game with back soreness, so Fontecchio would likely start again if he remains out. All the starters would have higher usages and ceilings. (Update: Markkanen is IN)

• Harden and Tucker are questionable for Philly, with Harden’s absence vaulting guys like Maxey and Melton into must-play territory. Tucker out would likely give House another start and more minutes to McDaniels and Niang. McDaniels is now questionable as well, so Niang and Harris could be looking at most of the PF minutes. (Update: Harden and McDaniels are OUT)

• Scottie Barnes is questionable with wrist soreness for Toronto, and if out, I’d expect Gary Trent to start at SG with Anunoby sliding to SF, and all the starters would see slight usage bumps. Gary Trent is also now questionable, so if he and Barnes are out I’d consider VanVleet, Anunoby and Siakam all top plays getting big usage bumps.

• Keldon Johnson and Jeremy Sochan are questionable for the Spurs, so Bates-Diop would likely start if either sat, while we could see Barlow or Wesley join the starting lineup if both are out. (Update: Keldon is OUT, Sochan is IN)

• Lowry and Martin are questionable for Miami, although Lowry is closer to probable based on quotes, and Martin sitting would give more minutes to Herro, Butler, and Strus. (Update: Lowry and Martin are IN)

• Caruso is questionable for the Bulls, so we could see Patrick Williams start again if he remains out, while Beverley, White, and Dosunmu would all absorb Caruso’s time. (Update: Caruso is OUT)

• Edwards and Nowell are questionable for Minnesota, but we’re going doubtful on Edwards for now, while Nowell sitting would give more minutes to NAW and McLaughlin. McLaughlin is also questionable now with an illness, so NAW could be pressed in to significant minutes. (Update: McLaughlin is OUT)

• Nassir Little is questionable for Portland, so guys like Thybulle, Watford, Eubanks, and Walker would absorb his minutes if out. (Update: Little is OUT)

If you want to see how someone out will affect the rest of the team, check out the Court IQ Tool where you can see what players’ usage rates and FPPM (fantasy points per minute) are for any team with certain teammates on or off the floor.

NBA Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Games to Target

Let’s look at NBA Starting Lineups to see any major lineup news, such as guys missing or interesting depth chart changes as well as which teams or games I’m looking to target. This page is my favorite tool for NBA DFS as we get betting lines, DFS salaries, projected ownership, and updated depth charts that we can refer to as we build our lineups or see what is affected by any news throughout the day, so make sure to take advantage of this page to keep you up to date on a variety of beneficial DFS info.

• With Kuzma still out with a “significant ankle sprain”, look for Kispert to start for him again, while Avdija should see 30+ minutes, too and is a higher upside play between the two.

• Ja Morant is back for Memphis, although there is a slight chance they will bring him off the bench as he gets back into game shape. Dillon Brooks will serve his 1-game suspension for hitting another technical foul limit, so David Roddy will likely start for him and should be a solid value option, especially for $3.2k on DK.

• Jones, Graham, McDermott, and Langford are all out for the Spurs, so Branham and Vassell should start in the backcourt and be looking at a ton of minutes with very little guard depth behind them. Keldon and Sochan will start at the forward spots if both play, otherwise Bates-Diop and Barlow would likely start for both.

• With Edwards likely out for MIN, Taurean Prince should continue to benefit, but his price shot up on both sites by $1.4k+, so I will let others chase his career performance last game at these inflated salaries. Karl-Anthony Towns is on track to return and could immediately start, which would likely move Prince back to the bench anyways.

• Anfernee Simons and Jerami Grant are out for Portland, so Cam Reddish and Trendon Watford should join the starting lineup, and both are in play for value in a high-projected scoring game with Utah. Ochai Agbaji should continue to start for Utah with Clarkson still out.

• Ayton is out again for the Suns, so Biyombo will likely start at center, with Landale splitting time with him there.

NBA DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Picks

With a good feel for injuries, projected lineups, and top games to target, let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.

If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.

On FanDuel:

• Damian Lillard ($10,300) is at his lowest salary in over a month, which is pretty absurd timing as Simons and Grant are out for Portland today, so Lillard should be closer to $12k given his likely 40%+ usage rate and 60+ FP ceiling against Utah. I can’t remember the last time someone over $10k in salary was our top p/$ projected play, but that is the case for Lillard, as he can be considered the top value of the slate at that price, and I’m expecting him to be one of the highest owned players of the slate in cash games. Trendon Watford ($5,700) and Cam Reddish ($5,000) are also very strong p/$ plays today as likely starters, and both could be looking at an even bigger bump in minutes if Little ends up out too.

• Bam Adebayo ($8,100) remains underpriced as he’s gone for 40+ FP in three straight games, and his price hasn’t budged. He has a slightly tougher matchup with the Knicks compared to his last few matchups. Still, with a likely 5x value floor in a game projected to be very close, he makes for a great center target for cash games that will still allow you to fit in Lillard along with another high-priced player or two. Check out our No House Advantage promo code for new signups, where I like betting the over on Adebayo’s 19.5 points line today.

• Jamal Murray ($7,700) is at his lowest salary since January after dropping another $300 in price, and with 34+ FP in five of his last six games, he should have a pretty safe 5x value floor today at that price and makes for a great PG target in cash games as he is always capable of going off for 50+ FP.

• Ochai Agbaji ($4,700), Torrey Craig ($4,800), and David Roddy ($4,500) are three of my favorite value plays under $5k today, as each has a clear path to 27+ minutes (assuming Roddy starts), draw pace up matchups today, and have each shown 25+ FP upside when given their projected minutes today.

Looking at DraftKings:

• Lillard ($10,500) remains my top play on DK at that price, while Watford ($5,300) and Reddish ($4,300) are both cheaper than FD, and I will likely have at least one of them in my main build.

• David Roddy ($3,200) is $1.3k cheaper than FD, so I prefer using him on DK if you only use him on one site today. Roddy has gone for 19.75 FP or more in the last three games. He’s seen 22+ minutes, including two games of 31+ FP, so if he indeed draws the start for Brooks, I can’t see fading him for basically minimum price and a 10x value ceiling.

• Nikola Vucevic ($7,900) only went up $200 after going for 48.5 FP in this same matchup with Philly last game and is one of my favorite cash game centers today. In the two games before last against Philly, Vucevic went for 65.5 and 55.25 FP. This matchup with Embiid brings out the best in him, and I’m expecting another 45+ FP game at home in a projected competitive game with just a 3-point spread. Bam Adebayo ($7,800) remains another strong cash game center option as he’s $300 cheaper than FD, and you can play him and Vucevic in the same lineup.

• Jalen Brunson ($7,300) dropped another $200 and is now at his lowest salary since early January, and he is currently my favorite p/$ PG after Lillard on DK. Brunson is coming off a 45.5 FP game and draws a matchup with Miami in which he went for 44.5 FP against earlier this month. So, a likely 6x value performance puts him right in cash game consideration, and this might be the cheapest we see Brunson for a long time if he puts up another strong FP game today.

• I also want to mention Clint Capela ($5,600) as a cheaper cash game center if you don’t end up with Vucevic or Adebayo, as Capela is at one of his lowest salaries of the season after dropping $200 overnight, and could be looking at another usage bump if Murray ends up out. Capela has gone for 30+ FP in three of his last four games and has another great shot at 6x value today in the highest projected scoring game of the slate.

Keep checking LineupHQ for any projections changes throughout the day, as the best p/$ plays could change instantly if someone gets ruled out or some other type of news makes someone likely to see more or fewer minutes or usage.

NBA DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock

If you have any tough lineup decisions or need some quick picks, check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.

For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to follow the RotoGrinders NBA twitter feed, read our NBA DFS Alerts page, and watch NBA Crunch Time.

Good luck today!

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