NBA DFS Projections Preview: November 17
It’s going to be a wild Friday slate as we have 11 games, and to begin the day, there are ten questionable players with impact ratings of nine or higher, and thirteen with ratings of seven or higher. The good news is that all of those questionable guys besides LeBron play at 8PM or earlier, so we should get a lot of status updates before lock, and we have all the teams’ injury reports since no one is on a back-to-back.
Assuming at least a handful of Q guys end up out, the top p/$ plays will change many times throughout the day, so keep checking LineupHQ when news drops for updated projections, and don’t get too comfortable with lineups you make early in the day.
Let’s check out all the news and notes before some DFS picks!
This is a daily weekday NBA article that can hopefully show you some lineup-building tools on RotoGrinders, as well as provide some picks and analysis based on those tools.
Today’s FanDuel & DraftKings NBA DFS Projections Preview
There are ways to get edges in DFS NBA, such as tracking injury news right up to lock and swapping in top value plays if a questionable player gets ruled out, knowing which teams are on a back-to-back and not fully rested, and adjusting to daily positional matchups and team pace matchups to always be targeting the players and teams with the highest daily upside. I will be focusing on the “main slate” each weekday, but you can still find plenty of analysis for any other slates, including weekends, on RotoGrinders.
This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for NBA, including our industry-leading NBA DFS projections and NBA lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!
NBA DFS Injury Roundup
Before we take a look at the projected lineups and picks for the day, it’s important to get a feel for any injuries that we’ll need to monitor throughout the day and how these injuries will affect our builds if a questionable player ends up out. For cash games, I’m looking for big minutes, high usage, and fast-paced games with bad defenses. So knowing who is dealing with any kind of injury and might not get 30+ minutes is critical, as well as how a regular starter being out will affect other players’ usage rates and if their replacement starter is worth using.
Looking at The Situation Room, we can see who is definitely out, likely out, and questionable for the upcoming slate and how it will affect lineups if certain questionable players end up sitting.
- LeBron James is questionable in the late games, and as big favorites against Portland I could see him taking a game off here. If he does sit look for Rui Hachimura to start, while Russell and Davis would get big usage bumps, and Reddish would be a more appealing value play too.
- DeMar DeRozan missed last game for personal reasons and is questionable tonight, and in a rematch with Orlando we’d likely see a similar rotation as last game if DeRozan is out again, with Patrick Williams joining the starting lineup.
- Garland and Mitchell are both questionable for Cleveland. If both are out, I would consider Caris LeVert the top play of the slate, as he could approach 40 minutes and would easily be looking at a 40+ FP floor with a massive ceiling. Even if just one of them ends up out, I would be looking to use at least two of LeVert, Mobley, and Strus in cash games, and if both are out, it would be hard not to use all three of them.
- (Update: Giannis was upgraded to PROBABLE) – Giannis is questionable with the calf injury that kept him out last game, and if out again, we could see Andre Jackson get another spot start, but Damian Lillard would benefit the most and would be a top play of the slate coming off a 63+ FP last game without Giannis. Beasley, Lopez, and Portis would all be in play at various price points and positions in a fantastic matchup with Charlotte, while Middleton looks to still be on a 20 or so minutes restriction and wouldn’t be on my radar. Beauchamp is also Q, so guys like Connaughton and Jackson would see a bump in minutes if out.
- Porzingis and Brown are both questionable after they each sat last game, but both attended shootaround and are looking closer to probable. If, for some reason, either sit, look for Hauser to start for Brown and Horford to start for Porzingis, while Holiday, White, and Tatum would get big usage bumps if both sit.
- Embiid is questionable with hip soreness, and with ATL as one-point favorites currently, it’s looking like a decent chance he sits. Paul Reed would likely start and be a top value play, while Maxey, Melton, and Harris would get big usage bumps and all would be in play for cash games.
- Hayward and Miller are questionable for Charlotte, but with Miles Bridges back from his suspension, either Q guy sitting won’t change too much in my Hornets exposure. If both Q guys sit, then Ball and Washington would definitely have higher ceilings, but Bridges is expected to have a big role from the get-go and could really limit just how high of a ceiling all the CHA guys have today.
- Bagley is questionable with an illness, and Kevin Knox was wearing a blue starters jersey in shootaround so we may see a shake up in starters even if Bagley is available. If Bagley is ruled out, then Isaiah Stewart would be looking at a big role as the top center and is still under $6k on both sites, while Wiseman would keep his backup center role and may see a slight bump in minutes.
- Barrett is questionable with the migraine that’s kept him out the last two games, and Grimes is questionable with a wrist sprain he suffered last game. Josh Hart would start if either sat most likely, and if both are out, we’d likely see Quickley or DiVincenzo join the starting lineup too. It’s a great matchup with Washington so Brunson and Randle would be in cash game consideration if the Q guys are out.
- Suggs is now deemed a GTD tonight with knee soreness, and if out, I’d expect either Ingles or Harris to start at SG.
If you want to see how someone out will affect the rest of the team, check out the CourtIQ tool, where you can see what players’ usage rates and FPPM (fantasy points per minute) rates are for any player with certain teammates on or off the floor.
NBA Projected Lineups – Notes & Analysis
Let’s take a look at NBA Starting Lineups to see any major lineup news, such as guys missing or interesting depth chart changes. This page is my favorite tool for NBA DFS as we get betting lines, DFS salaries, projected ownership, and updated depth charts that we can refer to as we build our lineups or see what is affected by any news throughout the day, so make sure to take advantage of this page to keep you up to date on a variety of beneficial DFS info.
- The Clippers are moving Westbrook to the bench and starting Terance Mann in his place, and at $4,100/$3,800 on each site, he’s an intriguing punt play today.
- Beal is doubtful, so we should see the same starting lineup as last game with Gordon and Allen at the SG/SF spots.
- Fultz remains out for Orlando so look for Anthony Black to continue to start at PG.
- Vassell is out and Jones is doubtful for the Spurs, so Branham is looking at a sizeable role as the likely starting SG. Johnson is probable to return after missing the last game.
- Batum remains out for personal reasons so Robert Covington should continue to start, and after seeing 37 minutes last game he is in consideration as a value play today, especially if Embiid sits.
- Anunoby is doubtful and Trent is probable, so I’d expect Trent to start in OG’s spot, but Toronto could go with Gradey Dick again and have Trent come off the bench after missing three games.
- There’s been talk of the Pistons changing things up with their lineup, and with Knox in a starters’ jersey at shootaround, that seems like the imminent change. If Knox does start, it will likely be for either Hayes or Bagley, and at ~$4k on both sites Knox is in play for value today.
- We’ll see if Bridges starts right away or comes off the bench as he gets into game shape, but either way his presence and likely 25+ minute role will make it hard to trust any Hornets players to have a ceiling game.
- Until we see something different, I’m also expecting Dyson Daniels and Toumani Camara to remain starters for the Pelicans and Blazers, respectively.
NBA FanDuel & DraftKings Lineup Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for injuries, projected lineups, and top games to target, let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.
On FanDuel:
- John Collins ($5,300) saw a big $800 price decrease from last game and is at his cheapest salary of the season. This is after he went for 40 FP last game and 30.6 FP the game before that, so as the starting center in one of the highest projected scoring games of the slate, he’s a top cash game value and should be easy to fit in at either PF or C. Also on Utah, Keyonte George ($4,900) remains too cheap given his starting role and b2b games of 28+ FP.
- With Vassell out and Jones likely out, Malaki Branham ($4,400) is projected to start at SG with a good shot at 30+ minutes. He’s gone for 11+ FP in all but one game this year and has a couple 23+ FP games under his belt, and in the highest projected scoring game of the slate he should be in strong consideration for an extreme cash game value play at either SG or SF.
- Jerami Grant ($6,800) dropped $600 after sub-par game against Cleveland, but against the Lakers tonight I think he is back in play for cash games with all the injuries Portland is still dealing with. There’s a chance LeBron sits, which would make this game much more competitive and give a better matchup for Grant, but regardless, Grant should be looking at big minutes and has as high of a ceiling as any forward below $7k today.
- Robert Covington ($4,800) didn’t see a price change after going for 29.2 FP in 37 minutes last game, and with Batum still out and potentially Embiid too, Covington will almost certainly start and should be looking at 30+ minutes in a projected high scoring, close game with Atlanta, so strongly consider him in cash games at either SF or PF.
- Kevin Knox ($4,100) is expected to start and is looking like an excellent extreme salary saver at the SF/PF spots. In his first two games with Detroit, he’s seen 24 and 28 minutes off the bench, going for 26.1 and 16.3 FP. With a likely 5x value floor as a potential starter and 7-9x value ceiling, he is one of the best plays in the $4k price range today.
- At the PG spot, I’m looking at Reggie Jackson ($5,000) for value, as he continues to see around 30 minutes and has gone for 20+ FP in five of his last six games. He likely won’t win you a GPP unless he somehow goes lights out from three, but if you love the rest of your lineup and need a PG in his price range, he should be good for around 25 FP at a great price.
- One more value play to consider at center is Goga Bitadze ($5,100), as he draws the same matchup as last game with Chicago in which he went for over 40 FP in 26 minutes. There will likely be plenty of other value opening up as the day goes on where Bitadze won’t be necessary for cash games. Still, I would definitely have exposure to him in GPPs, or if you’d rather spend most of your salary at other positions, he is a solid 5-7x value option in your main build.
Looking at DraftKings:
- Collins ($6,200) and George ($5,400) are a bit pricier than FanDuel but are definitely still in play for cash games at solid salaries, while Branham ($3,900), Knox ($4,000), and Covington ($4,500) remain some of my favorite value plays.
- Jackson ($5,000) is the same price as FanDuel and is still in play for cash game value at PG, and the same goes for Bitadze ($5,300) at center who is just a couple hundred more than his FanDuel price. I’m also really liking the price of Dyson Daniels ($5,100) if you need another PG value.
- Also on Denver, I’m looking at Aaron Gordon ($6,600), as his price dropped $200 from the last game, and he comes at a big $900 discount to his FanDuel price. He’s seen 38+ minutes in each of his last two games, and has gone for 32+ FP in six straight games, so against the size of the Pelicans frontcourt, I’m expecting Gordon to see big minutes again with a great shot at 6x+ value.
- Another forward that is in play for cash games is Tobias Harris ($6,300), as his price decreased $300 from the last game, and he could be looking at a huge usage bump if Embiid is out or limited. Harris is seeing huge minutes and is averaging around 35 FPPG this year, and in a high scoring close game with ATL today I’d be looking to use him at a discounted price, and if Embiid sits, he is an absolute cash game lock for me.
Keep checking LineupHQ for any projections changes throughout the day, as the best p/$ plays could change in an instant if someone gets ruled out or some other type of news makes someone likely to see more or less minutes or usage.
NBA DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
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Good luck today!