NBA DFS Projections Preview: November 28
None of the 16 teams playing today are on a back-to-back so we have all the initial injury reports, which include eight fantasy relevant questionable players and one big new injury. Draymond Green is back from his suspension to take on the Kings in the final game of the night, which currently has the second-highest total and closest spread of the slate.
Let’s check out all the news and notes before some DFS picks!
This is a daily weekday NBA article that can hopefully show you some lineup-building tools on RotoGrinders, as well as provide some picks and analysis based on those tools.
Today’s FanDuel & DraftKings NBA DFS Projections Preview
There are ways to get edges in DFS NBA, such as tracking injury news right up to lock and swapping in top value plays if a questionable player gets ruled out, knowing which teams are on a back-to-back and not fully rested, and adjusting to daily positional matchups and team pace matchups to always be targeting the players and teams with the highest daily upside. I will be focusing on the “main slate” each weekday, but you can still find plenty of analysis for any other slates, including weekends, on RotoGrinders.
This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for NBA, including our industry-leading NBA DFS projections and NBA lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!
NBA DFS Injury Roundup
Before we take a look at the projected lineups and picks for the day, it’s important to get a feel for any injuries that we’ll need to monitor throughout the day and how these injuries will affect our builds if a questionable player ends up out. For cash games, I’m looking for big minutes, high usage, and fast-paced games with bad defenses. So knowing who is dealing with any kind of injury and might not get 30+ minutes is critical, as well as how a regular starter being out will affect other players’ usage rates and if their replacement starter is worth using.
Looking at The Situation Room, we can see who is definitely out, likely out, and questionable for the upcoming slate and how it will affect lineups if certain questionable players end up sitting.
- (Update: Butler and Highsmith are OUT) – Jimmy Butler and Haywood Highsmith are questionable for Miami, so Jaime Jaquez would likely start if either sat, while Richardson or Martin could start as well if both are out. Butler sitting would vault Bam Adebayo into cash game must-play territory getting a big usage bump.
- (Update: Holiday is IN) – Jrue Holiday is questionable for Boston, and if out, I’d consider Derrick White a top cash game play moving to PG and getting a nice usage bump. Banton and Hauser would get solid minutes bumps with one likely starting, and both Brown and Tatum would have higher ceilings.
- (Update: LaVine and Caruso are IN) – Zach LaVine and Alex Caruso are questionable for Chicago, so Patrick Williams would likely start if either sat, while Craig would likely start as well if both sit. LaVine out would make all of White, DeRozan, and Vucevic much more appealing plays.
- (Update: Middleton is IN) – Khris Middleton is questionable for Milwaukee. If out, I’d expect Andre Jackson to start but not be fantasy viable, while all of Portis, Connaughton, and Beauchamp would help cover Middleton’s time.
- (Update: Lively is IN) – Dereck Lively is questionable for Dallas, so Richaun Holmes would likely start again if he remains out, but Holmes would be a risky value option unlikely to exceed 23 minutes.
- (Update: Smith is OUT) – Dennis Smith is questionable for Brooklyn, and if available, he’ll help at the guard depth. If he remains out, Walker will get his time.
If you want to see how someone out will affect the rest of the team, check out the CourtIQ tool, where you can see what players’ usage rates and FPPM (fantasy points per minute) rates are for any player with certain teammates on or off the floor.
NBA Projected Lineups – Notes & Analysis
Let’s take a look at NBA Starting Lineups to see any major lineup news, such as guys missing or interesting depth chart changes. This page is my favorite tool for NBA DFS as we get betting lines, DFS salaries, projected ownership, and updated depth charts that we can refer to as we build our lineups or see what is affected by any news throughout the day, so make sure to take advantage of this page to keep you up to date on a variety of beneficial DFS info.
- LaMelo Ball is the biggest injury news of the day as he’s out with an ankle injury. Terry Rozier will likely slide to PG giving Brandon Miller the start at SG, and the Hornets also remain without Richards, Martin, and Ntilikina. James Bouknight will make his season debut, but he may not be needed in the rotation yet, so he’s off the DFS radar.
- Saddiq Bey should continue to start for Atlanta with Johnson out indefinitely, and Dean Wade remains out for Cleveland along with Jerome and Rubio.
- Duncan Robinson is probable to return after missing two games along with Adebayo, who sat out the last game.
- Al Horford should continue to start until Porzingis returns from his calf injury, and the Thunder will get back Jalen Williams who is off the injury report after missing three games.
- Draymond Green is back from his suspension so the Warriors will have their regular starting lineup, while the Kings will remain without Keegan Murray, so look for Chris Duarte to remain a starter until he returns.
NBA FanDuel & DraftKings Lineup Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for injuries, projected lineups, and top games to target, let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.
On FanDuel:
- With Ball out, we’re going to want some Charlotte exposure in cash games, as a bunch of usage will shift to the rest of the starters. Terry Rozier ($7,900) had a 25% usage rate in his return to the lineup last game, scoring 37.7 FP in 36 minutes, and with the likely shift to PG for him that usage rate should approach closer to 30%, and those minutes and FPs will likely be his floor today. His price went up $600, but given the bump in usage, he is still a value until he gets closer to $8.5k or Ball returns. Brandon Miller ($5,800) and Gordon Hayward ($5,700) are other excellent values for cash games, and Miles Bridges ($8,000) is a great GPP play if he doesn’t make your main build.
- Al Horford ($5,800) is looking like a solid value option at center for cash games, as he should continue to start and see 30+ minutes until Porzingis returns, and he’s gone for 32+ FP in two of his last three games. His price bumped up $900 from the last game, so this could be our last chance to play him for under $6k, and I will like him even more if Holiday gets ruled out. Derrick White ($6,900) will also be a top cash game target if Holiday is out.
- Harrison Barnes ($5,100) and Malik Monk ($5,100) are solid values to consider in your main build with Murray out again, as both have likely 5-7x value ranges in their outcome. Their price won’t hurt you too badly if they do just go for 4x value.
- Fred VanVleet ($8,000) and Jalen Green ($6,800) are a couple other guards looking like strong p/$ cash game targets, and for super cheap I’m considering Dorian Finney-Smith ($4,600), Nickeil Alexander-Walker ($4,300), Dillon Brooks ($4,600), and Grant Williams ($4,600).
Looking at DraftKings:
- Rozier ($7,400) remains my top cash game target, and I prefer Miller ($5,600) over Hayward ($6,500) for the big price discount.
- Barnes ($5,100), VanVleet ($8,100), and Green ($6,400) are all still cash-game viable at those prices, but I’m not as high on Monk ($5,600) or Horford ($6,000) at slight price bumps compared to FanDuel.
- The Cavs have a couple guys I prefer on DraftKings, as Darius Garland ($7,200) is $500 cheaper than FanDuel and Jarrett Allen ($6,400) is $400 cheaper. Both draw an excellent pace-up matchup with the Hawks, who have struggled defensively, so I’d make sure to use at least one of them in cash games, if not both.
- Jakob Poeltl ($6,000) is also standing out as a much better DK play coming in at a $1,300 discount to FD, and with back-to-back games of 39+ FP he is a great way to get some cheap exposure to Toronto in a projected close game with Brooklyn.
- If either Butler or Highsmith sit I’ll strongly consider Jaime Jaquez ($5,400) for cash games at a great price, along with Patrick Williams ($4,200) if either Caruso or LaVine sit.
Keep checking LineupHQ for any projections changes throughout the day, as the best p/$ plays could change in an instant if someone gets ruled out or some other type of news makes someone likely to see more or less minutes or usage.
NBA DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough lineup decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.
For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to follow the RotoGrinders NBA twitter feed, read our NBA DFS Alerts page, and watch NBA Crunch Time.
Good luck today!