NBA DFS Projections Preview | DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Values 11/29/22
Just a three game main slate today but at least we have Curry vs. Doncic and only the Pistons have major injury news.
This is a daily weekday NBA article that can hopefully show you some lineup building tools on RG as well as provide some picks and analysis based on those tools.
Today’s FanDuel & DraftKings NBA DFS Projections Preview
There are ways to get edges in DFS NBA, such as tracking injury news right up to lock and swapping in top value plays if a questionable player gets ruled, knowing which teams are on a back-to-back and not fully rested, and adjusting to daily positional matchups and team pace matchups to always be targeting the players and teams with the highest daily upside. I will be focusing on the “main slate” each weekday, but you can still find plenty of analysis for any other slates including weekends on RG, and feel free to leave suggestions in the comments sections for any strategies / tools you’d like to see here!
This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for NBA, including our industry-leading NBA DFS projections and NBA lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!
NBA DFS Injury Roundup
Before we take a look at the projected lineups and picks for the day it’s important to get a feel for any injuries that we’ll need to monitor throughout the day and how these injuries will affect our builds if a questionable player ends up out. For cash games I’m looking for big minutes, high usage, and fast-paced games with bad defenses so knowing who is dealing with any kind of injury and might not get 30+ minutes is critical as well as how a regular starter being out will affect other players’ usage rates and if their replacement starter is worth using.
Looking at The Situation Room we can see who is definitely out, likely out, and questionable for today’s main slate and how it will affect lineups if certain questionable players end up sitting.
- The Pistons list Marvin Bagley, Bojan Bogdanovic, Jaden Ivey, and Isaiah Stewart as questionable today so their starting lineup and optimal DFS plays will really depend on which of those four guys end up playing. If all four are out then I’d consider Killian Hayes a top play of the slate while Bey, Burks, Duren, and Livers would all be in play after him. If all four play then it’d be hard to trust most of the DET guys to have ceiling games or hit value at their current prices but if 2-3 of the Q guys sit then at least a couple of the starters would be in play especially Hayes and Bagley who have been excellent of late. (Update: Bagley is IN, Stewart is IN, Bojan is IN, Ivey is OUT)
- Immanuel Quickley is the only other questionable player today and if out his minutes would just be absorbed by Grimes, Reddish, Rose, and McBride. (Update: Quickley is IN)
If you want to see how someone out will affect the rest of the team check out the Court IQ Tool where you can see what players’ usage rates and FPPM (fantasy points per minute) are for any team with certain teammates on or off the floor.
NBA Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Games to Target
Let’s take a look at NBA Starting Lineups to see any major lineup news, such as guys missing or interesting depth chart changes as well as which teams or games I’m looking to target. This page is my favorite tool for NBA DFS as we get betting lines, DFS salaries, projected ownership, and updated depth charts that we can refer to as we build our lineups or see what is affected by any news throughout the day, so make sure to take advantage of this page to keep you up to date on a variety of beneficial DFS info.
- GSW/DAL should have the usual starters with Bullock back starting after getting a game off while Campazzo was waived to make room for the signing of Kemba Walker who is unlikely to be available today for DAL. (Update: Tim Hardaway will start with Bullock coming off the bench)
- George, Leonard, and Kennard all remain out for LAC and they’ll be joined by John Wall who is sitting out the front end of tomorrow’s back-to-back. Unless the Clippers bring up Boston, Preston, or Diabate from the G-League they will have just 9 players available making them a top team to target for players getting big minutes. (Update: Preston and Diabate are available for LAC giving them 11 available now)
- Quentin Grimes looks to have taken over the starting SG spot for the Knicks with Cam Reddish playing off the bench last game so we’ll see if that continues today while Justise Winslow should continue to start over Sharpe for POR.
- Only Killian Hayes is a sure thing for the Pistons starters tonight as four potential starters are questionable. Isaiah Stewart could return from his long absence and if available he would limit the ceiling of Bagley and the other bigs while the status of Ivey and Bogdanovic will impact guys like Saddiq Bey and Isaiah Livers being in play for DFS as both could start for them.
NBA DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for injuries, projected lineups, and top games to target, let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.
On FanDuel:
- There are only a few guys with 60+ FP upside today so I would definitely get Luka Doncic ($12,000) in your lineup and also Stephen Curry ($11,200) as both have by far the highest ceilings today and there should be enough value out there to fit both.
- For extreme value Amir Coffey ($3,900) is my favorite play as he’s easily the cheapest option that could see 35 minutes today with how thin the Clippers are and although he likely won’t go for 40 FP or anything he’s cheap enough where 15-25 FP is a great outcome since his salary should help you fit in Doncic and Curry.
- Reggie Jackson ($5,500), Terance Mann ($5,500), and Marcus Morris ($5,500) are all in play as well at great prices but if you can spend a little more then Norman Powell ($6,000) and Ivica Zubac ($6,900) are both higher upside plays from the Clippers.
- Justise Winslow ($5,200) has seen 28, 37 and 46 (overtime game) minutes his last three games as a starter going for over 26 FP in each making him another super solid value play and my favorite p/$ play from Portland tonight. Josh Hart ($6,500) and Jusuf Nurkic ($6,800) also come in at nice prices if you want more cheap POR exposure.
- Dorian Finney-Smith ($4,900) has averaged around 28 FPPG over his last three games but is still under $5k putting him in play for value today and he’s my 2nd favorite target from DAL after Doncic.
- Klay Thompson ($6,400) and Draymond Green ($6,700) are pretty affordable if you can fit one or both after Curry while Mitchell Robinson ($5,700) and Quentin Grimes ($4,800) are where I’d go for value from the Knicks.
- It would take at least 2-4 of the questionable Pistons players to be out for me to consider Saddiq Bey ($5,400), Alec Burks ($5,800), and Isaiah Livers ($3,800) as solid value plays.
Looking at DraftKings:
- Amir Coffey ($3,600) remains my favorite extreme salary saver while Justise Winslow ($4,700) is also just way too cheap to fade for a starter looking at 30+ minutes.
- Mitchell Robinson ($4,600) comes at a nice $1,100 discount compared to FD and coming off a 35 FP game in 31 minutes I’d consider him a top value play on DK tonight.
- Norman Powell ($5,400), Reggie Jackson ($5,300), Terance Mann ($4,800), and Marcus Morris ($5,800) are how I’d rank the cheap Clippers in order of upside and p/$ priority targets.
- Dorian Finney-Smith ($4,500) remains a solid value play along with Quentin Grimes ($4,400) while Killian Hayes ($6,300), Josh Hart ($6,400), Andrew Wiggins ($6,800), Klay Thompson ($6,100), and Draymond Green ($6,500) are my favorite plays in the $6k range.
Keep checking LineupHQ for any projections changes throughout the day, as the best p/$ plays could change in an instant if someone gets ruled out or some other type of news makes someone likely to see more or less minutes or usage.
NBA DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough lineup decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.
For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to follow the RotoGrinders NBA twitter feed, read our NBA DFS Alerts page, and watch NBA Crunch Time.
Good luck today!
Image Credit: Imagn