NBA DFS Projections Preview: November 9
There are just two games today after yesterday’s chaos, including ATL/ORL playing in Mexico City, and MIL/IND playing on a back-to-back.
Let’s check out all the news and lineup notes before some DFS picks!
This is a daily weekday NBA article that can hopefully show you some lineup-building tools on RotoGrinders, as well as provide some picks and analysis based on those tools.
Today’s FanDuel & DraftKings NBA DFS Projections Preview
There are ways to get edges in DFS NBA, such as tracking injury news right up to lock and swapping in top value plays if a questionable player gets ruled out, knowing which teams are on a back-to-back and not fully rested, and adjusting to daily positional matchups and team pace matchups to always be targeting the players and teams with the highest daily upside. I will be focusing on the “main slate” each weekday, but you can still find plenty of analysis for any other slates, including weekends, on RotoGrinders.
This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for NBA, including our industry-leading NBA DFS projections and NBA lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!
NBA DFS Injury Roundup
Before we take a look at the projected lineups and picks for the day, it’s important to get a feel for any injuries that we’ll need to monitor throughout the day and how these injuries will affect our builds if a questionable player ends up out. For cash games, I’m looking for big minutes, high usage, and fast-paced games with bad defenses. So knowing who is dealing with any kind of injury and might not get 30+ minutes is critical, as well as how a regular starter being out will affect other players’ usage rates and if their replacement starter is worth using.
Looking at The Situation Room, we can see who is definitely out, likely out, and questionable for the upcoming slate and how it will affect lineups if certain questionable players end up sitting.
- (Update: Lillard is OUT) – Damian Lillard is questionable with right calf soreness, and if out I’d expect Cameron Payne to start at PG. No Lillard would give all the starters big usage bumps, especially Giannis who is already a top spend up of the slate.
- Markelle Fultz is questionable with his left knee tendinitis that’s kept him out the last couple of games, and if out again, we’d likely see Anthony Black start at PG, and Cole Anthony would get a bump in usage.
If you want to see how someone out will affect the rest of the team, check out the CourtIQ tool, where you can see what players’ usage rates and FPPM (fantasy points per minute) rates are for any player with certain teammates on or off the floor.
NBA Projected Lineups – Notes & Analysis
Let’s take a look at NBA Starting Lineups to see any major lineup news, such as guys missing or interesting depth chart changes. This page is my favorite tool for NBA DFS as we get betting lines, DFS salaries, projected ownership, and updated depth charts that we can refer to as we build our lineups or see what is affected by any news throughout the day, so make sure to take advantage of this page to keep you up to date on a variety of beneficial DFS info.
- Khris Middleton is back after resting the front end of the b2b yesterday, and the Pacers have no one on their injury report.
- The Hawks have no new injuries with Wesley Matthews still out, while the Magic remain without Wendell Carter and Gary Harris, so look for Goga Bitadze to continue to start at center.
NBA FanDuel & DraftKings Lineup Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for injuries, projected lineups, and top games to target, let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.
On FanDuel:
- Goga Bitadze ($5,000) remains at a fantastic price, and given the high 231 game total and close 3.5 point spread, he should be looking at 25+ minutes and a likely 5x value floor. If Fultz remains out, then Anthony Black ($4,600) would be in play as a cash game value having seen 30+ minutes the last two games as a starter.
- Bennedict Mathurin ($4,800) is another top value play today, as his price dropped $100 and is at his lowest of the season after going for 41.8 FP last game. He has been pretty mediocre between opening day and yesterday, but he’s still averaging above 20 FPPG on the year, and in a 243 game total he has a much better chance at going for 30+ FP than under 20 FP. Bruce Brown ($5,000) and Obi Toppin ($4,400) have also been pretty mediocre overall on the year, but if you need to fill a spot or two in their price ranges, they should be solid 15-25 FP guys.
- Jalen Johnson ($6,400) is my favorite play in the $6-7k price range today, as he’s back to being a starter and has gone for 39+ FP in two straight games. De’Andre Hunter ($5,100) is coming off a couple of terrible games, and his price dropped $700, but he’s still going to see around 30 minutes and should get back to his usual 25+ FP scoring sooner rather than later.
- If Lillard sits and Cameron Payne ($4,000) starts he’d jump to top value play of the slate so keep him on your radar.
Looking at DraftKings:
- I prefer Myles Turner ($7,100) over Bitadze ($5,400) for cash games if you only use one, as the price gap is much closer compared to FanDuel, and Turner has a much higher floor/ceiling combo.
- Mathurin ($5,300) remains my favorite value play of the slate, and Toppin ($4,000) is super cheap for likely 15-20 FP production.
- Johnson ($6,300) remains the top play at his price point, and Hunter ($4,900) is a solid cash game target at the forward spots. Saddiq Bey ($4,300) and Bogdan Bogdanovic ($4,400) both come at nice discounts to FanDuel, and I don’t mind using either in cash games if you need the extra salary savings.
- Anthony Black ($4,300) will be a top value target if Fultz remains out, and if Fultz ($5,100) plays I’d consider him cash game viable at this low of a price.
- If Lillard sits and Cameron Payne ($3,700) starts he’d jump to top value play of the slate so keep him on your radar.
Keep checking LineupHQ for any projections changes throughout the day, as the best p/$ plays could change in an instant if someone gets ruled out or some other type of news makes someone likely to see more or less minutes or usage.
NBA DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough lineup decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.
For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to follow the RotoGrinders NBA twitter feed, read our NBA DFS Alerts page, and watch NBA Crunch Time.
Good luck today!