NBA DFS Projections Preview | DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Values 10/20/22
Whew it was a wild one yesterday with some crazy high scores as 30 players went over 40 FP on DraftKings along with some last-minute scrambling with Myles Turner getting hurt in warmups and Cole Anthony getting scratched right before lock with an illness. Today will be a lot calmer as we only have two games and a very clean injury report with no Q or D players currently so today is a good day to make some lineups, study what happened yesterday, and recharge for another big slate tomorrow.
This is a daily weekday NBA article that can hopefully show you some lineup building tools on RG as well as provide some picks and analysis based on those tools.
Today’s FanDuel & DraftKings NBA DFS Projections Preview
There are ways to get edges in DFS NBA, such as tracking injury news right up to lock and swapping in top value plays if a questionable player gets ruled, knowing which teams are on a back-to-back and not fully rested, and adjusting to daily positional matchups and team pace matchups to always be targeting the players and teams with the highest daily upside. I will be focusing on the “main slate” each weekday, but you can still find plenty of analysis for any other slates including weekends on RG, and feel free to leave suggestions in the comments sections for any strategies / tools you’d like to see here!
This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for NBA, including our industry-leading NBA DFS projections and NBA lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!
NBA DFS Injury Roundup
Before we take a look at the projected lineups and picks for the day it’s important to get a feel for any injuries that we’ll need to monitor throughout the day and how these injuries will affect our builds if a questionable player ends up out. For cash games, I’m looking for big minutes, high usage, and fast-paced games with bad defenses so knowing who is dealing with any kind of injury and might not get 30+ minutes is critical as well as how a regular starter being out will affect other players’ usage rates and if their replacement starter is worth using.
Looking at The Situation Room we can see who is definitely out, likely out, and questionable for today’s main slate and how it will affect lineups if certain questionable players end up sitting.
The Bucks have three players out in Khris Middleton, Pat Connaughton, and Joe Ingles so look for Jrue Holiday and Giannis Antetokounmpo to carry most of the offense while Allen, Portis, and Lopez are the likely other three starters that will have to do more as well and are solid value plays.
The Lakers have the same injuries as last game with Dennis Schroder, Thomas Bryant, and Troy Brown Jr. all out so we should expect the same starters and a similar rotation as their first game.
The 76ers and Clippers have clean injury reports with just Reggie Jackson listed as probable.
If you want to see how someone out will affect the rest of the team check out the Court IQ Tool where you can see what players’ usage rates and FPPM (fantasy points per minute) are for any team with certain teammates on or off the floor.
NBA Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Games to Target
Let’s take a look at NBA Starting Lineups to see any major lineup news, such as guys missing or interesting depth chart changes as well as which teams or games I’m looking to target. This page is my favorite tool for NBA DFS as we get betting lines, DFS salaries, projected ownership, and updated depth charts that we can refer to as we build our lineups or see what is affected by any news throughout the day, so make sure to take advantage of this page to keep you up to date on a variety of beneficial DFS info.
PHI and LAL should have the same starters and rotations as Tuesday while MIL and LAC are the only teams who haven’t played yet so we will learn their rotations today. Bobby Portis has been starting in the preseason for Middleton but Jevon Carter will draw the start today and Reggie Jackson has been confirmed the LAC starting PG with John Wall coming off the bench. Kawhi Leonard is back but I wouldn’t expect him to see over 30 minutes as he saw 17 and 16 minutes in two preseason games and they may even bring him off the bench to start the season so spend that high salary elsewhere.
NBA DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for injuries, projected lineups, and top games to target, let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.
On FanDuel:
- Joel Embiid ($10,200) and Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,300) are the first two guys I’m locking in as LeBron and AD have tougher matchups, Embiid is by far the best option at center, and Giannis has the highest upside of anyone today and the freshest legs as this will be his first game of the year.
- In the mid-tier I’m going with Tyrese Maxey ($6,600) who saw 38 minutes in the opener and is still too cheap for 30+ FP upside and Bobby Portis ($5,800) who is also too cheap even coming off the bench. I also really like Tobias Harris ($6,300) and Norman Powell ($5,900) to help fill in the SG/SF/PF spots.
- Marcus Morris ($4,600) and Lonnie Walker ($4,400) are my favorite value plays followed by Patrick Beverley ($5,000), Jevon Carter ($3,500), Grayson Allen ($3,800), and Kendrick Nunn ($4,200).
Looking at DraftKings:
- Tyrese Maxey ($5,200) only went up $200 after putting up 30 FP Tuesday so he is the first guy I’m locking in along with Bobby Portis ($5,400) who should be closer to $6k. Giannis Antetokounmpo ($10,700) is my favorite stud to pay up for and with the $1k price savings of LeBron James ($9,300) compared to Joel Embiid ($10,300) they are pretty similar as far as order of priority in cash games but I still give Embiid the edge.
- Tobias Harris ($5,500) and Norman Powell ($5,000) remain excellent mid-range targets while Marcus Morris ($4,500), Lonnie Walker ($4,100), Patrick Beverley ($4,100), Jevon Carter ($3,000), and Kendrick Nunn ($3,700) are the values to target to help fit in 2-3 studs.
Keep checking LineupHQ for any projections changes throughout the day, as the best p/$ plays could change in an instant if someone gets ruled out or some other type of news makes someone likely to see more or fewer minutes or usage.
NBA DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough lineup decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.
For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to follow the RotoGrinders NBA twitter feed, read our NBA DFS Alerts page, and watch NBA Crunch Time.
Good luck today!
Image Credit: Imagn