NBA DFS Projections Preview: October 31
Happy Halloween! Only three games today so plenty of time to go trick-or-treating or answer the door 100 times. The Magic are on a back-to-back, but I’m not expecting anything new on their injury report later today. The Cavs and Suns remain without two key starters each, and the Clippers were part of a big James Harden trade late last night that sent four players to the 76ers, so at best they’ll have just 11 players available if their two questionable players are available.
Let’s check out any other news and lineup notes before some DFS picks!
This is a daily weekday NBA article that can hopefully show you some lineup-building tools on RotoGrinders, as well as provide some picks and analysis based on those tools.
Today’s FanDuel & DraftKings NBA DFS Projections Preview
There are ways to get edges in DFS NBA, such as tracking injury news right up to lock and swapping in top value plays if a questionable player gets ruled out, knowing which teams are on a back-to-back and not fully rested, and adjusting to daily positional matchups and team pace matchups to always be targeting the players and teams with the highest daily upside. I will be focusing on the “main slate” each weekday, but you can still find plenty of analysis for any other slates, including weekends, on RotoGrinders.
This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for NBA, including our industry-leading NBA DFS projections and NBA lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!
NBA DFS Injury Roundup
Before we take a look at the projected lineups and picks for the day, it’s important to get a feel for any injuries that we’ll need to monitor throughout the day and how these injuries will affect our builds if a questionable player ends up out. For cash games, I’m looking for big minutes, high usage, and fast-paced games with bad defenses. So knowing who is dealing with any kind of injury and might not get 30+ minutes is critical, as well as how a regular starter being out will affect other players’ usage rates and if their replacement starter is worth using.
Looking at The Situation Room, we can see who is definitely out, likely out, and questionable for the upcoming slate and how it will affect lineups if certain questionable players end up sitting.
- (Update: Mitchell is IN, LeVert is OUT) – Donovan Mitchell is questionable with right hamstring soreness, and if out, we’ll see Caris LeVert start at PG and be a top play of the slate. LeVert is now questionable with his own hamstring soreness, so if he’s out then Strus would be a must play while Okoro and the other starters would get even bigger usage bumps.
- Ivica Zubac is questionable with a right thigh contusion, and Norman Powell is questionable with left foot soreness. Zubac sitting would move Mason Plumlee to the starting lineup and he’d be a great value play. Powell out would likely move either Hyland or Coffey to the starting lineup.
If you want to see how someone out will affect the rest of the team, check out the CourtIQ tool, where you can see what players’ usage rates and FPPM (fantasy points per minute) rates are for any player with certain teammates on or off the floor.
NBA Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Games
Let’s take a look at NBA Starting Lineups to see any major lineup news, such as guys missing or interesting depth chart changes. This page is my favorite tool for NBA DFS as we get betting lines, DFS salaries, projected ownership, and updated depth charts that we can refer to as we build our lineups or see what is affected by any news throughout the day, so make sure to take advantage of this page to keep you up to date on a variety of beneficial DFS info.
- Garland, Allen, Jerome, and Rubio all remain out for Cleveland, so so we should see a similar lineup as last game, with either Mitchell or LeVert at PG depending on Mitchell’s availability.
- Beal and Booker are still out for Phoenix, so we’ll likely get another Eric Gordon and Grayson Allen starting backcourt.
- Mann and Boston remain out due to injury for the Clippers, while Covington, Batum, Martin, and Morris were all traded to Philly last night and won’t be available as well. If Powell plays through his questionable tag, there’s a good chance he starts, but they could go with Coffey in order to keep their second unit stronger.
NBA FanDuel & DraftKings Lineup Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for injuries, projected lineups, and top games to target, let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.
On FanDuel:
- A bunch of cheap Suns are projecting as excellent p/$ plays, and my favorite of the group for cash games is Eric Gordon ($5,200). Gordon should see the most minutes of the cheap Suns options as the starting PG, and will almost certainly take the second most shots after Durant. His price only went up $600 after going for over 32 FP last game in just 25 minutes, so if the Spurs can keep this game close, Gordon should easily pay off his salary and does have a pretty high ceiling if his shot is falling. Grayson Allen ($4,200) would be my next cheap target if you need the salary savings at SG/SF, followed by Goodwin ($5,000) and Okogie ($5,100).
- At PG/SG, I’m loving the cheap combo of Markelle Fultz ($5,400) and Jalen Suggs ($4,700). Suggs is especially appealing for cash games as he’s gone for over 30 FP in two straight games, and outside of Allen, he’s definitely the best play of the slate under $5k. Fultz is coming off a 38.8 FP performance, and if he does anything close to that again today he will smash his current price, and will likely not be below $6k for awhile.
- (Update: LeVert is OUT) – Cleveland has a lot of usage up for grabs with Garland and Allen out, and guys like Max Strus ($6,100), Isaac Okoro ($5,300), and Caris LeVert ($6,400) have been taking advantage of it. I like using at least one of them in cash games even if Mitchell plays, but if Mitchell is out then LeVert becomes a cash game lock, and I think Strus as well. Also, Okoro and even Dean Wade ($4,400) become much more appealing value options.
Looking at DraftKings:
- Eric Gordon ($5,200) remains a great cash game target, while Allen ($4,600), Okogie ($4,200), and Goodwin ($4,900) are all in play if you need to fill another spot or two for cheap.
- Norman Powell ($4,400) is $1.1k cheaper than FanDuel, and if he’s active he’ll be a great cash game play, even if he doesn’t start. Mason Plumlee ($4,900) will also be a great play if Zubac is ruled out.
- (Update: LeVert is OUT) – Max Strus ($5,800) continues to be under $6k even after going for over 46 FP in two of his first three games, and even if Mitchell plays I think he’s a very strong cash game play. Okoro ($4,500) and Wade ($3,600) should both start today and come at fantastic prices to target at the SF/PF spots, and if Mitchell is out then fire up LeVert ($6,100) as well.
- Jalen Suggs ($4,800) remains an excellent value at the guard spots along with Fultz ($5,600).
Keep checking LineupHQ for any projections changes throughout the day, as the best p/$ plays could change in an instant if someone gets ruled out or some other type of news makes someone likely to see more or less minutes or usage.
NBA DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough lineup decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.
For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to follow the RotoGrinders NBA twitter feed, read our NBA DFS Alerts page, and watch NBA Crunch Time.
Good luck today!