NBA DFS Projections Preview | DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Values 3/29/2022
So yesterday was a little crazy to say the least, but today we’re looking at a much calmer five-game slate with four of the games starting at 7:30PM or earlier and one game at 10PM. Unfortunately the biggest unknowns are in the last game of the night with the Jazz and Clippers, but with only the Bulls on a back-to-back we have a lot of news already out with one big name likely out and another big name with a chance to return from a long absence.
This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for NBA DFS, including our industry-leading NBA DFS projections and NBA lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!
NBA DFS Projections Preview – Tuesday, March 29th
NBA Starting Lineups – Early DFS Analysis
On short slates I like to go game by game on the NBA Starting Lineups page, starting with Chicago-Washington which looks like both teams will have the same group as their last game since Kuzma is still out. We’ll need to see if there’s any kind of b2b rest for the Bulls but for now everyone is projected in.
Philly will be at full strength against the Bucks who also look to be at full strength with Jrue Holiday and Serge Ibaka returning from their one-game absences. Detroit lost Jerami Grant and Hamidou Diallo for the season so Marvin Bagley should start at PF the rest of the way while Jackson and McGruder are handling Diallo’s time. Kyrie Irving can play at home games now so the Nets are at full strength outside of Ben Simmons and Joe Harris remaining out.
The biggest news of the day is LeBron James likely out with his left ankle sprain so we’re projecting Stanley Johnson to start for him as he did the last time LeBron sat. Russell Westbrook is the clear winner when James sits and will be a very popular play today especially at just $8,100 on FanDuel. After Westbrook it’s sort of a take your pick between Reaves, Gabriel, Johnson, Howard, Monk, and Anthony as far as value plays. Right now I’m leaning Monk, Gabriel, and Johnson as my favorite of that group. Nothing new for the Mavs who should have their usual group of late with just Sterling Brown remaining out.
In the last game of the night we could see the return of Paul George from his elbow injury which would make it hard to use anyone on the Clippers really as George is $9k+ and could have a minutes limit and even if he sees 25-30 minutes it will still put a big ceiling and usage hit on all of the other starters. If George doesn’t play look for Amir Coffey to continue to start and be a decent value play. The Jazz could get back Danuel House and Bojan Bogdanovic from their long absences as well as Rudy Gobert who missed their last game. Whiteside will remain out so we could see a decent amount of newly signed Greg Monroe if Gobert is a no-go.
NBA DFS Key Injuries – The Situation Room Review
Almost all of the questionable tags in The Situation Room are in the last game of the night (UTA-LAC) and if we don’t learn any of their statuses before lock this might be a game I completely fade as it would be the only game available to swap from after 7:30 and it’s already sitting at the lowest projected total of the slate.
As mentioned previously Paul George is questionable to return and if he does there’s just too much unknown as far as his minutes as well as the rotation around him to trust any Clippers and if George remains out I’m still not loving much on LAC at their current prices and deep rotation with maybe Amir Coffey at $3,800 as the lone value play exception.
Utah is also going to have a lot of unknowns with Bojan Bogdanovic, Danuel House, and Rudy Gobert all questionable and if all are available to play this team is just too deep to feel comfortable using any of them. If Bogdanovic and House both remain out then I think you can look at Juancho Hernangomez for value and Donovan Mitchell as a strong play under $9k, especially if Rudy Gobert sits too. The Jazz signed Greg Monroe to a 10-day contract so if Rudy Gobert sits I think we’ll see a mix of Paschall, Hernangomez, and Monroe at center so I probably won’t consider them unless all three of the Jazz Q guys sit.
Zach LaVine was added as questionable at 11:30AM EST for rest on the b2b. DeMar DeRozan would be a top play on both sites if LaVine sits while Nikola Vucevic would also be in serious consideration at C especially on DK where you can use him with Embiid. Ayo Dosunmu would be a much more appealing value play as well along with Alex Caruso with no LaVine.
Make sure to follow the RG NBA Twitter feed for all news related to injuries and lineups as well as our DFS Alerts page for any big news updates on players with instant analysis on how it affects their teams and the slate.
NBA DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for the projected starting lineups as well as key injuries let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.
The first play I’m locking in on FanDuel is Tomas Satoransky at $3,600 who is just too cheap for the likely 28+ minutes he’s been seeing as a starter. On the other side of that game Ayo Dosunmu is also $3,600 and although he hasn’t broken 21 FP in four straight games he’s still seen over 31 minutes in each of his last three games so he should be on your value radar to help fit in Giannis, Doncic, and/or Embiid today. The Lakers have a bunch of guys with strong p/$ projections with no LeBron today and it’s going to be hard to choose which of their five or so value options to use so I will probably go with the two or three at positions I feel like I don’t need or want to spend up on (I will almost certainly have Westbrook unless something else crazy news-wise happens today). Two guys standing out to me under $8k are DeMar DeRozan ($7,900) and Cade Cunningham ($7,700) as both are projected for over 40 FP with close to 60 ceilings and are very easy to fit in today. Other cheap FanDuel options to consider include Dorian Finney-Smith ($4,500), Isaiah Stewart ($5,200), Saddiq Bey ($5,500), Rui Hachimura ($4,500), and Corey Kispert ($4,300).
The Lakers are popping on DraftKings too especially Stanley Johnson at $3,300 who will be a lock for me if he starts. Howard, Gabriel, Monk, Anthony, and Reaves should all be fine plays for their prices but again I will be looking at positional needs and pick and choose a couple of them at positions I’m not spending up on. Satoransky and Dosunmu are a bit more expensive than FD but I will still be locking in Satoransky for $4,100 while Dosunmu ($4,400) probably won’t make the cut. Marvin Bagley is looking like a great play at $5,600 which is $700 cheaper than his FD price coming off back-to-back games of over 34 minutes and over 37 FP. I still like DeRozan at $8,300 while Cunningham is $1,100 more than FD at $8,800 so I’ll probably use that salary elsewhere. Other cheap options I’m considering are Reggie Bullock ($4,200), Corey Kispert ($3,900), Dwight Powell ($4,100), Royce ONeale ($3,900), and Brook Lopez ($4,200).
Keep checking LineupHQ as we learn more news and our minutes and projections change throughout the day as well as the ChangeLog which shows which projections were recently updated. The best p/$ plays could change in an instant if there’s a big injury that comes out of the blue, a questionable player gets ruled out, or we get a quote from a coach saying someone won’t see as many minutes or will see a lot more minutes than we were expecting earlier in the day as a few examples of many that can drastically change a slate.
NBA DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough last-minute decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.
For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to watch NBA Crunch Time and follow the CourtIQ Live Blog later in the day.
Good luck today!
Image Credit: Imagn