NBA DFS | Today's Best Projections, Optimizer Picks, Starting Lineups, Key Injuries
Welcome back from the All-Star Break! This year’s break felt longer than usual, and the dunk contest taking 17 hours to complete each dunk was probably the main reason. Hopefully everyone enjoyed the mental reset and did some fun things or found some other sports to bet on, but we are back today with a nice seven-game NBA DFS slate with some big injuries and big names returning to the court.
This article is meant to highlight some of RotoGrinders’ most helpful tools for NBA, including our industry-leading NBA DFS projections and NBA lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!
NBA Starting Lineups – Early DFS Analysis
Taking a look at our NBA starting lineups, most of the teams should have the same lineup they used their last game before the break, but the biggest name missing is Chris Paul, who is out 6-8 weeks with a broken thumb. The Suns will get Landry Shamet back today, but Cameron Payne will remain out, so look for Aaron Holiday to potentially start and be a strong value play.
If we look at CourtIQ with Chris Paul and Cameron Payne off the floor, we see Devin Booker with a team-high 32.2% usage rate and Deandre Ayton with a team-high +.28 FPPM, so consider at least one if not both of them in most of your builds today.
Another big name missing from the lineup is Jusuf Nurkic who is out at least a month with plantar fasciitis. Look for Trendon Watford and Drew Eubanks to get the center minutes, and if we head back to CourtIQ and take Jusuf Nurkic, Damian Lillard, C.J. McCollum, and every other Portland player out or traded away off the court we see Anfernee Simons and Josh Hart have 42% and 38% usage rates making them excellent plays.
Lastly the Cavaliers are without both Darius Garland and Caris LeVert leaving Rajon Rondo and Brandon Goodwin to handle point. A quick CourtIQ with the Cavs available players today shows Kevin Love with a team-high 29% usage rate and 1.40 FPPM.
NBA DFS Key Injuries – The Situation Room Review
Heading over to The Situation Room, we see pretty much only “Out” or “Probable” tags, which isn’t too surprising after a week-long break, as guys either know they’re not ready to return or have had plenty of time to rest/heal up. I still wouldn’t be shocked to see a few names pop up later as “Questionable”, and we’ll let you know ASAP over on our RG NBA News Twitter feed.
Some names that stand out as guys likely/potentially returning to the starting lineup are Robert Williams, Marcus Smart, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Zach LaVine, and Lauri Markkanen. Make sure to check our DFS Alerts page for any big news updates on these players and many more with instant analysis on how it affects their teams and the slate.
NBA DFS Lineup Optimizer Picks – LineupHQ
Now that we have a good feel for potential starting lineup changes, new injuries and guys likely returning from injuries, we need to see how this all affects the big picture of tonight’s slate over at LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.
Right now Rajon Rondo, Aaron Holiday, and Trendon Watford are standing out as the best pt/$ plays given their increased roles due to injuries and their extremely low salaries. Rondo and Holiday are my favorite of the day as they should see 20-30 minutes and potentially more if either of them end up starting. Watford has some risk being the last game of the night and the potential for newly added Drew Eubanks to start or at least split the center time.
Other value plays standing out to me are Gary Payton, Isaac Okoro, De’Andre Hunter, Danilo Gallinari, and Jarred Vanderbilt on FanDuel as well as Marvin Bagley and James Johnson on DraftKings.
A couple mid-range plays that are looking like solid pt/$ plays include Cade Cunningham, Kevin Love, and Mikal Bridges.
Keep checking LineupHQ as we learn more news and our minutes and projections change throughout the day. The best pt/$ plays could change in an instant if there’s a key injury that comes out of the blue or we get a quote from a coach saying someone won’t see as many minutes or will see a lot more minutes than we were expecting earlier in the day.
NBA DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough last-minute decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.
For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to watch NBA Crunch Time and follow the CourtIQ Live Blog later in the day.
Good luck today!
Image Credit: Imagn