NBA DFS | Today's Best Projections, Optimizer Picks, Starting Lineups, Key Injuries
Happy March! Today we have a fun little six-game slate with a rematch between the Nets and Raptors from yesterday as well as the Clippers and Rockets from two days ago. Durant is getting very close to a return, but it won’t be tonight and Irving will remain out as he is ineligible to play in Canada. We also have some fun matchups between the Warriors and Timberwolves with some double revenge action in Wiggins and Russell as well as Doncic vs. LeBron, which should be must-watch TV as the only game starting after 8pm EST. We have a few injuries to monitor today currently and could get a few more surprises as the day progresses with three teams on a back-to-back in the Nets, Raptors, and Timberwolves.
This article is meant to highlight some of RotoGrinders’ most helpful tools for NBA, including our industry-leading NBA DFS projections and NBA lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!
NBA Starting Lineups – Early DFS Analysis
Until we get any injury news, it’s looking like a lot of the usual projected starters on the NBA Starting Lineups page. Kyrie Irving remains the biggest name missing even though the Nets aren’t playing in New York as he is ineligible to play in Canada so look for the same starting lineup as last night while Goran Dragic may see a little bump in playing time as Patty Mills has been pretty awful his last three games and it’s a mini revenge spot for Dragic who was released by Toronto not too long ago because they “couldn’t get along”.
No Klay Thompson again for the Warriors is the other major lineup news of note and running a CourtIQ with Klay, Dray, and Iggy off the floor we see Stephen Curry with a 33% usage rate scoring 1.35 FPPM with Andrew Wiggins and Jordan Poole next in line for usage upgrades. Last game Moses Moody got the start which limited Poole to under 20 minutes making both pretty risky plays while Gary Payton remains a solid value play. Curry is by far the safest Warrior to use and has as high a ceiling as anyone on this slate while Wiggins hasn’t been great of late, but that extra motivation against the team that drafted him may be the spark that gets one of his ceiling games at a depressed salary.
The rest of the teams are projected for their usual starting lineups of late, but the status of Fred VanVleet and Kevin Porter Jr. could propel Malachi Flynn and Dennis Schroder in to their team’s starting lineups and both would be top plays.
UPDATE: OG Anunoby was upgraded to Q around 1:00 PM EST so he’d likely start if active. Lots of moving pieces potentially for the Raptors so their starting lineup will be very important tonight.
NBA DFS Key Injuries – The Situation Room Review
Right now over in The Situation Room LeBron James stands out as the biggest questionable tag, and if he sits Russell Westbrook and Carmelo Anthony would become extremely popular plays. Talen Horton-Tucker would also be in play as he sees a 3.7% usage increase with LeBron off the floor as seen in this CourtIQ and has been getting 25-30 minutes of late so we would expect a floor of at least 30 minutes with LeBron out.
As mentioned above, Fred VanVleet and Kevin Porter Jr. are the next most relevant questionable tags as their replacements would be key pieces in most lineups today. Last night VanVleet sat and Malachi Flynn got the start, putting up over 35 FP in just under 34 minutes so we would likely get another Flynn start if FVV sits and he is still minimum price on FD and DK. Scottie Barnes went absolutely bonkers yesterday going for over 65 FP and his price actually got lower on FD (slightly higher on DK) so he is already in play and would be even more popular if VanVleet sat again. If Kevin Porter Jr. sits for Houston then Dennis Schroder would likely start and at under $6,000 on both FD and DK he would be very popular and for good reason as he’d likely see 35+ minutes in the same matchup he just did great against last game.
The only other DFS relevant “Q” tags right now are Andre Drummond, Cam Thomas, Hamidou Diallo and Garrison Mathews whose absences would give bumps to LaMarcus Aldridge, Goran Dragic / David Duke, Rodney McGruder and Josh Christopher respectively.
UPDATE: OG Anunoby was upgraded to Q around 1:00 PM EST and if he is active it would limit the ceilings a bit of Barnes and Siakam.
UPDATE: Anthony Edwards and Jarred Vanderbilt were announced questionable at 3:30 PM EST. If either of them are out look for Jaden McDaniels to start and be a very strong value play while Russell and Towns will have to carry more of the offense too.
Make sure to follow the RG NBA Twitter feed for all news related to injuries and lineups as well as our DFS Alerts page for any big news updates on players with instant analysis on how it affects their teams and the slate.
NBA DFS Lineup Optimizer Picks – LineupHQ
With a good feel for the projected starting lineups as well as key injuries let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.
Starting with FanDuel there are a couple names really standing out at the low salary of $5,500 and that is Scottie Barnes and Andrew Wiggins. I mentioned Barnes’ insane game last night and even though it’s a back-to-back he is just too cheap for his upside in the same matchup with the potential of VanVleet sitting again or at least being a bit limited. Wiggins is also too cheap today and although he may not have the upside of Barnes he should be heavily involved with Thompson, Green, and Iguodala all out in a nice matchup with Minnesota sitting at the highest game total and closest spread of the night (check out our NBA Odds for game totals and spreads on a variety of sportsbooks).
A couple of Wizards are also projecting as strong p/$ plays in Daniel Gafford and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and they should be solid for their sub-$5k prices but they may not be necessary especially if Flynn and Schroder are in play as mentioned previously. Other FD p/$ plays I’m liking are Patrick Beverley, Jarred Vanderbilt, Dwight Howard, Carmelo Anthony, and Danilo Gallinari.
On DraftKings Barnes and Wiggins are definitely still in play even though they are both around $6,000 there while Daniel Gafford is looking like a top value play at just $3,600 which is over $1k less than his FD price. Any p/$ projection over 6 is excellent and Gafford is sitting at almost 8 right now. Kevon Looney and previously mentioned KCP are both looking like strong value plays as well, but just don’t expect too much and hope for 22-27 FP which would be great for their prices. Like Gafford, James Johnson is also over $1k cheaper than he is on FD and at $4,300 you could do much worse at that price range for someone who should see around 30 minutes. Beverley, Vanderbilt, Howard, Anthony, and Gallinari are all in play on DK as well and make sure to keep Malachi Flynn and Dennis Schroder in mind if we get news of VanVleet or Porter Jr. sitting.
Keep checking LineupHQ as we learn more news and our minutes and projections change throughout the day. The best pt/$ plays could change in an instant if there’s a big injury that comes out of the blue, a questionable player gets ruled out, or we get a quote from a coach saying someone won’t see as many minutes or will see a lot more minutes than we were expecting earlier in the day as a few examples of many that can drastically change a slate.
NBA DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough last-minute decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.
For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to watch NBA Crunch Time and follow the CourtIQ Live Blog later in the day.
Good luck today!
Image Credit: Imagn