NBA DFS | Today's Best Projections, Optimizer Picks, Starting Lineups, Key Injuries
We get a nice little recovery day today with a tiny two-game slate which feels like basically no games after yesterday’s insanity but at least we have some fun matchups with the Nets-76ers and Nuggets-Warriors. The Nuggets come in to today with the most question marks as they are the only team on a back-to-back and two questionable starters and a questionable key bench piece. Unfortunately they play 2 1/2 hours after lock so just be prepared for some swaps or weird b2b rest stuff. Oh and who’s excited for some Seth Curry & Andre Drummond revenge!!!!! Just kidding it’s all about James Harden revenge today.
This article is meant to highlight some of RotoGrinders’ most helpful tools for NBA, including our industry-leading NBA DFS projections and NBA lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!
NBA Starting Lineups – Early DFS Analysis
As expected with only two games there’s not much news on NBA Starting Lineups as the Nets and 76ers should start their usual lineups of late while Aldridge remains out for Brooklyn and Danny Green will be out for Philly but Paul Millsap should return from his one game absence.
The last game of the night does have important news as Otto Porter Jr. will remain out so we could see Moses Moody keep starting as he has the last couple games Porter missed or they could go with a bit more size with Kuminga or Toscano-Anderson against Gordon and Jokic while Draymond, Iguodala, and Payton all remain out. Will Barton has missed the last two games with an ankle sprain but has a chance to return today otherwise Austin Rivers should start for him while Bones Hyland status will likely be learned closer to game time after he missed yesterday with knee soreness. Jeff Green was scratched yesterday as his wife was giving birth to a baby girl so it wouldn’t be surprising if he gets another day off to be with them and Davon Reed could start for him again.
NBA DFS Key Injuries – The Situation Room Review
Only the Nuggets are noteworthy in The Situation Room with Will Barton, Jeff Green, and Bones Hyland getting the questionable tags. If all three remain out then we should be looking at a similar rotation as yesterday with Rivers and Reed starting and Campazzo and Forbes getting all the backup guard minutes. Nikola Jokic is on another planet as far as production goes right now and would have to carry most of the offense again with Gordon and Morris helping the most after him.
If either Will Barton or Jeff Green are available then Davon Reed would be off my radar for value and if both Barton and Green play then Austin Rivers will be off my radar especially if Hyland is available too. Overall the safest Nuggets to use are Jokic, Morris, and Gordon if you don’t want to deal with potential late-swapping out Will Barton or Jeff Green.
Make sure to follow the RG NBA Twitter feed for all news related to injuries and lineups as well as our DFS Alerts page for any big news updates on players with instant analysis on how it affects their teams and the slate.
NBA DFS Lineup Optimizer Picks – LineupHQ
With a good feel for the projected starting lineups as well as key injuries let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.
Starting with FanDuel the Warriors are looking like the best source for value today with two definite starters and one likely starter having strong p/$ projections. Klay Thompson is again way too cheap at $5,700 and will easily be the highest-owned player under $6k on the slate and should be the first player to lock in for cash games. Kevon Looney is also looking like a great source for value at $4,700 having just put up around 35 FP in 29 minutes in this same matchup two games ago. Hopefully Moses Moody starts but even if he doesn’t I’m liking him a lot at $4,300 as he should see 20+ minutes regardless of his role and easily 25+ minutes if he starts. Jonathan Kuminga ($5,100) should also be a good source for salary relief with 26+ minutes in each of his last three games and over 20 FP in each. If we hear that Will Barton will play with no restrictions it will be hard to ignore his $4,900 price especially with his teammates having played yesterday and a little more tired than him. In that same price range Monte Morris ($5,400) and Aaron Gordon ($5,000) are both great ways to help fit in Jokic and a couple other studs. I won’t be looking for much value in the Nets-76ers game but I do like the prices of Seth Curry ($4,600) and Andre Drummond ($5,600) and don’t mind taking a shot on Goran Dragic ($4,200), Matisse Thybulle ($3,900) or George Niang ($3,700) for extreme value.
It’s pretty similar over on DraftKings as Kevon Looney looks like a top value play at just $4,100 along with Moses Moody at $3,500. Klay Thompson is $900 more expensive than FD at $6,600 but is still in play for me. I also love the price of Monte Morris at $4,700 which is $700 cheaper than FD and he’s coming off three straight games of 33+ FP. I won’t be on Will Barton at $5,900 but do still like Aaron Gordon at $5,400 as well as Curry and Drummond who are basically the same price as they are on FD. One name that I much prefer on DraftKings over FanDuel is Bruce Brown who is $1,800 cheaper at just $5,100 and will really help with fitting the studs you want.
Keep checking LineupHQ as we learn more news and our minutes and projections change throughout the day as well as the ChangeLog which shows which projections were recently updated. The best p/$ plays could change in an instant if there’s a big injury that comes out of the blue, a questionable player gets ruled out, or we get a quote from a coach saying someone won’t see as many minutes or will see a lot more minutes than we were expecting earlier in the day as a few examples of many that can drastically change a slate.
NBA DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough last-minute decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.
For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to watch NBA Crunch Time and follow the CourtIQ Live Blog later in the day.
Good luck today!
Image Credit: Imagn