NBA Draft on PrizePicks: Best Values
MONDAY MORNING UPDATE
Apparently some news shifted over the weekend, as even DraftExpress is projecting Anthony Edwards to go #1 now. Last week, they reported that “most NBA front offices are operating under the assumption that LaMelo Ball is going #1”. Obviously, things might have changed based on this news. Being that the majority of the smart minds say that LaMelo is the clear top talent in this draft, it wouldn’t surprise me at all if this change in momentum is player-driven (e.g. Russell and KAT telling the front office that they prefer Edwards over LaMelo).
If you want to hedge out of your LaMelo at #1 shares, you can do that with Edwards UNDER 2.0. Patrick Williams UNDER 9.0 is still my favorite pick on the board. And I will add in Nico Mannion OVER 28.5. I have yet to come across a mock draft that has him going in the first round.
UPDATE
Since a few of these props have changed since I posted the article, I wanted to pop in with an update. LaMelo Ball moved from 2.0 down to 1.0. I still think he goes first in the draft, so I wouldn’t touch that now if you didn’t get it when it was at 2.0.
Patrick Williams moved from 12.5 all the way down to 9.0. First of all, I hope you got it while it was at 12.5! Secondly, I still think there is value on the UNDER here at 9.0. There is all sorts of chatter around the league that Williams has a promise at #7 to the Pistons. And the DraftExpress guys currently have him exactly there in their latest mock draft. I’d still feel comfortable firing away at Williams UNDER 9.0.
Deni Avdija has not budged from his 4.0 prop. The more and more content I consume on the draft, the more people I come across that are down on this guy. That being said, he is still popping up at #4 in a ton of mock drafts. As such, I feel the exact same way about this prop as I did when I wrote the original article. Hopefully the Bulls go elsewhere with their pick, and we can cash in on the OVER instead of settling for a push.
Let me preface this by saying I am not basing these PrizePicks selections off of my own evaluations of these players. For one, I watch less and less college basketball with each passing year. And two, some of these guys didn’t even play college basketball to begin with! My true talent evaluation on incoming NBA rookies begins when they start playing actual NBA-type games (i.e. Summer League, pre-season). Prior to that though, I am perfectly fine listening to what people smarter than me (and who evaluate the draft for a living) have to say about these prospects.
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So in the interest of full transparency, that is how I am arriving at these picks. What are the smart people, who cover the league and the draft, saying? What do the mock drafts look like? Where are these prospects on people’s ‘big boards’? I think we can find some edge here, especially if we can drown out a lot of the smoke signals that teams and agents send out through the media to keep everyone guessing. And I think that is a little what we are dealing with here with my favorite pick on the board…
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1) LaMelo Ball
Point Guard, Illawarra Hawks (NBL Australia)
Meansy’s prized pick: UNDER 2.0
Literally every single person whose opinion I trust has LaMelo as the clear best prospect in this draft. So instead of talking about why LaMelo is primed to be the number one pick in the 2020 NBA Draft, let’s discuss the two reasons I see that would result in him not going number 1.
1. This first one is less likely of the two, but it is at least noteworthy. Whether it be on a podcast, on Twitter, or in an article, there is seemingly something every day that comes out about why LaMelo shouldn’t be the number one pick, poking holes in his game, etc. In my opinion, that is far more about trying to generate clicks and buzz (due to that Ball name) than it is about his actual merits for deserving the top pick. So until I see something like that from trusted names, I don’t put much stock into it.
2. This second one carries the most weight for me, and that is simply that the Timberwolves don’t want to draft a guy who needs the ball in his hands a lot considering they already have D’Angelo Russell. For one, I don’t think that is true (and neither does Timberwolves beat writer Dane Moore). And even if you are to agree with the line of thinking that they don’t need another ball-dominant guard, does it then make more sense to draft James Wiseman when you already have Karl-Anthony Towns? No. Way.
So even if the Timberwolves, for some reason, don’t want LaMelo at number one, it is highly likely they trade out of the spot and pick him for another team anyways. LaMelo UNDER 2.0 is my favorite pick on the board.
(Note: One last thing I want to add here, and that is I am well aware that Anthony Edwards appears to be the favorite for the #1 pick in the betting markets. In my opinion, jump on plus-odds for LaMelo while you still can.)
2) Deni Avdija
Wing, Maccabi Tel Aviv (EuroLeague)
Meansy’s prized pick: OVER 4.0
I am not going to pretend to know a lot about Avdija’s game at this point in his career. And while I could direct you to a number of links where we could all learn more about it, that is essentially irrelevant for what we are trying to accomplish here.
Because what I do know is that this 2020 draft certainly seems to have a consensus top three.
LaMelo Ball
James Wiseman
Anthony Edwards
After those three though? It is really no telling what will happen. The Ball/Wiseman/Edwards trio is a tier above the rest, and then after that it is a real guessing game.
The reason we are seeing Avdija with a 4.0 draft projection on PrizePicks is most likely because he pops up at number 4 in a ton of mock drafts and big boards. Does that mean that Avdija is number 4 on the Bulls board though? Or that he is the best fit for that team? Nosireebob it does not.
So the way I see it is that you take the OVER 4.0 on Avdija and just hope for mass chaos after the first three picks. If picks 1-3 go as planned, then the worst case scenario for your Avdija pick is that he goes fourth and your Power Play or Flex Play reverts down one (or gets refunded if it is a 2-pick Flex Play).
And the best case scenario?
3) Patrick Williams
Wing, Florida State
Meansy’s prized pick: UNDER 12.5
Remember when I said up above that LaMelo, Wiseman, and Edwards make up their own tier at the top? Well, according to this article ($) from Jonathan Givony, Williams is a part of the second tier.
But here’s the thing. Givony says the second tier includes Williams, Avdija, Obi Toppin, Isaac Okoro, Tyrese Haliburton, and Onyeka Okongwu. For those counting at home, that is only six players. Verbatim, Givony says: “Those players appear likely to make up picks 4-9 in some order.”
As such, taking the UNDER on Williams at 12.5 also leaves you a few outs if he doesn’t go in the top 9 as projected. Williams has apparently been one of the biggest winners of this weird (due to COVID) pre-draft process. And since oddsmakers are a little slow to adjust to that news, I think we can jump on this over at PrizePicks.
Image Credit: Imagn
