NBA Finals Picks: Bucks vs. Suns Game 5 Player Props, Best Bets
Dan Gaspar breaks down his best bets for Game 5 of the NBA Finals. Find out which Suns vs. Bucks player props he’s on and who he’s picking against the spread Saturday night.
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NBA Finals Picks, Best Bets for Game 5
Game 4 had it all. An epic 42-point performance from Devin Booker. Khris Middleton dropping 40-points and making clutch shot after clutch shot. Perhaps the best block ever in the NBA Finals courtesy of Giannis Antetokounmpo. And ultimately, the Milwaukee Bucks winning the game evening the series at 2-2. Both teams now head back to Phoenix for Game 5 with the Suns currently listed as 4-point home favorites.
The Khris Middleton Game
No Milwaukee playoff series is complete until there has been the “”(player-popup #khris-middleton)Khris Middleton”:/players/khris-middleton-13990 game” and we got it on Wednesday night. Middleton looked significantly more active early and it paid off late in a big way as he finished the game with a 40/6/4 line and came up big for the Bucks down the stretch. I don’t think it mattered much as Middleton didn’t shoot that well from the field (.455 FG%; .375 3P%) but it is notable that his offensive explosion came in a game where Mikal Bridges saw his fewest minutes (26) in the series. That’s the second game in a row where Bridges lost significant playing time in favor of Cameron Johnson and is something to monitor in Game 5.
Speaking of players who saw their playing time trend in the wrong direction, Brook Lopez saw just 19 minutes of action in Game 4, seeing no court time in the fourth quarter. Instead, Milwaukee opted to go with their small ball lineup for the vast majority of the final quarter, with Pat Connaughton hitting a couple of huge three-pointers down the stretch. Despite going small for much of the game, the Bucks still dominated the offensive glass, grabbing 17 offensive rebounds. As a result, Milwaukee saw a bunch of extra looks, totalling 97 field goal attempts in comparison to Phoenix’s 78. The Suns will need to drastically close that gap in Game 5 if they want to walk away with the win.
While Giannis was unable to score 40+ points for the third consecutive game, he still had a massive impact on the game both offensively and defensively. The Greek Freak’s highlight block with 1:15 left helped Milwaukee stretch the lead to four points and eventually seal the deal.
Is Something Wrong With Chris Paul?
For as good as Devin Booker looked in Game 4, Chris Paul looked just ast bad. The Point God looked off early and ended the game with just 10 points, 7 assists, and 5 turnovers. Jrue Holiday has done an excellent job pressuring Paul over the last two games and you have to wonder if it’s starting to wear down the 36-year old. Paul is averaging five turnovers per game over the last three games. Prior to this series, Paul had just one game of more than three turnovers in the playoffs. Needless to say, Phoenix will need to get more out of the veteran point guard in Game 5 if they want to walk away with the victory.
While he looked extremely impressive racking up 42-points, it’s fair to wonder if Devin Booker will be able to find that sort of offensive success again this series against a tough Milwaukee defense. Booker didn’t make a single three point shot and the vast majority of his points were made on contested mid-range jumpers. As a team, the Suns seem overly reliant on their mid-range production, with ~53% of their shot attempts coming in that area in Game 4.
One way to become less reliant on the mid-range is to get big man Deandre Ayton more looks on the block. Ayton finished Game 4 with just 6 points, his lowest output of the entire playoffs. Ayton shot just 3-of-9 from the field and didn’t shoot a single free throw. Keeping the big man on the court for his defensive contributions is important for Phoenix but he’ll also need to help more on offense for the Suns to find success.
Bucks vs. Suns Player Props & Pick ATS
Mikal Bridges Under 16.5 P+R+A
Bridges’ minutes are trending downwards as he’s averaging just 26.5 minutes per game over the last two compared to 34 minutes per game throughout the first two games of the series. Monty Williams seems to be favoring Cam Johnson as the series progresses. That could change in Game 5 but I am all for hitting Mikal Bridges unders until we see his minutes tick back up.
Chris Paul, Over 8.5 Assists (-115)
This one makes me feel uneasy. Paul looked terrible in Game 4 and I wouldn’t be surprised if the 36-year old is starting to wear down due to the combination of a long playoff run and increased defensive pressure from Jrue Holiday. Still, this is a prop I marked as favorable after Game 2 and said I would continue to bet the over as long as it stays in this 8.5-9 assist range. It’s possible I am just being stubborn betting the over here but Paul still had 16 potential assists in Game 4 and is averaging 17 potential assists per game.
Deandre Ayton, Over 29.5 P+R+A
Ayton is coming off his worst offensive performance of the series but one thing is clear – Phoenix needs him on the court as much as possible. Ayton played 39 minutes in Game 4 but I wouldn’t be surprised to see Ayton stretched into the low 40’s in this spot, which would make all of his props just a bit too low.
Milwaukee Bucks +4 ATS
| Suns vs. Bucks | Bucks +4 |
| Time, TV | 9:00 p.m. ET, ABC |
| Best Book | BetMGM |
As a fan of basketball, I am just hoping that Game 5 is half as entertaining as Game 4 was. As a bettor, I think the opening line of Phoenix -4 is a bit long and I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised if we saw the final line settle in closer to 3-points. Milwaukee’s defensive intensity combined with a long playoff run seem to be wearing down Chris Paul who has more total turnovers (15) over the last three games than in Phoenix’s two previous series combined (13). Additionally, Phoenix’s overreliance on the mid-range for offensive production makes me think the paths to Milwaukee’s success are more sustainable.
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