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NBA Grind Down: Friday, April 29th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2016-04-30 02:02:40

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

Every game is also broken down by our NBA experts, providing an overview of the game and a selection of players to consider from each contest.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

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Toronto Raptors at Indiana Pacers – 7:30 PM

Toronto Raptors Indiana Pacers
torontonba Vegas Total 194.0 indiananba Vegas Total 194.0
Vegas Sprd 2.0 Vegas Sprd -2.0
Team Proj. 96.0 Team Proj. 98.0
Team Pace 95.30 Team Pace 99.00
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Kyle Lowry DeMar DeRozan DeMarre Carroll Patrick Patterson Jonas Valanciunas Proj. Starter George Hill Monta Ellis Paul George Myles Turner Ian Mahinmi
Opp. Season 9 12 5 8 15 Opp. Season 2 13 7 6 7
Last 3 Weeks 9 21 4 8 18 Last 3 Weeks 8 16 21 18 4

Toronto Raptors

The Raptors completed an epic comeback in Game 5 to avoid losing homecourt advantage in the series. They were down by 13 points heading into the fourth quarter, but were able to chip into the lead with their small ball approach. Toronto now has a chance to end the series tonight with a win against the Pacers in Indiana. The Raptors are listed as 2-point underdogs in what should be a competitive game throughout, although we have had a number of blowouts in this series and in the playoffs this season. The Raptors are projected to score 96.0 points, which gives them the fourth highest team total on the board.

Elite Plays

NONE

Kyle Lowry
kyle-lowry-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$8,000 Salary:$7,800
Position:PG Position:PG
FP/Min:1.04 FP/Min:1.12
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 37.0 35.0 -2.0 30.8 -6.2
FPPG (FD) 38.5 29.0 -9.5 28.5 -10.1
TO-Adj. Usage 22.8 22.8 -0.1 23.0 0.1

Lowry has had three subpar games (scoring under 30 FPs) and two Lowry-like games (38+ FPs) in this series. However, if we are looking to reach 5x value, he has actually failed to hit value in every game based on his FanDuel salary. While that is certainly a concern, the Raptors will lean on their star point guard on the road. I expect Lowry to play 40+ minutes in what is potentially a close out game for Toronto. They do not want to play a Game 7 if they don’t have to.

Jonas Valanciunas
jonas-valanciunas-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$6,200 Salary:$6,600
Position:C Position:C
FP/Min:1.04 FP/Min:1.12
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 25.9 26.5 0.6 22.0 -3.9
FPPG (FD) 26.9 28.1 1.2 24.8 -2.1
TO-Adj. Usage 17.0 17.8 0.8 21.9 4.9

After a blazing start to the series, Valanciunas has scored less than 26 fantasy points in each of the last three games. The Pacers have made adjustments defensively and the Raptors have employed a small ball approach, which has hurt his production. I still like big Val as a GPP play, but DeAndre Jordan and Mason Plumlee grade out as the top center targets.

Indiana Pacers

Despite a monster game from their superstar, the Pacers couldn’t pull off the upset win in Toronto in Game 5. They blew a big fourth quarter lead and now have to win at home to extend the series. Luckily, they will be playing in front of a raucous crowd in Indiana. The Pacers are listed as 2-point favorites with an implied team total of 98 points. They have the second highest team total and the second highest projected point differential of the six teams in action tonight.

Elite Plays

Paul George
paul-george-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$9,400 Salary:$10,000
Position:SF Position:SF
FP/Min:1.12 FP/Min:1.23
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 34.8 31.2 -3.6 27.6 -7.2
FPPG (FD) 39.1 37.0 -2.1 31.2 -7.9
TO-Adj. Usage 25.2 23.6 -1.6 23.0 -2.2

George was on FIRE in Game 5. He almost single-handedly carried them to victory with a 64 fantasy point outing. Unfortunately, it wasn’t enough as the Pacers just fell short in Toronto. In terms of his fantasy production, George has been hit or miss in this series. He has had some monster games and some disappointing one. With the fate of the Pacers’ season in his hands, I’m expecting George to play 40+ minutes and be the focal point offensively.

Secondary Plays

Myles Turner
myles-turner-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$5,600 Salary:$5,200
Position:PF Position:PF
FP/Min:0.90 FP/Min:0.95
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 22.8 21.1 -1.7 18.9 -3.9
FPPG (FD) 20.6 18.9 -1.7 19.9 -0.6
TO-Adj. Usage 17.2 16.5 -0.7 18.2 1.0

Turner has started the last two games and has scored 19 and 28 fantasy points in each. With power forward being such a thin position tonight, he is worth a look in all league formats. If he is playing well, he could see around 35 minutes again like he did in Game 5. The Pacers do have a number of bigs that they rotate in the game though, so I wouldn’t consider Turner a must play.

Miami Heat at Charlotte Hornets – 8:00 PM

Miami Heat Charlotte Hornets
miaminba Vegas Total 190.5 charlottenba Vegas Total 190.5
Vegas Sprd 2.0 Vegas Sprd -2.0
Team Proj. 94.3 Team Proj. 96.3
Team Pace 95.70 Team Pace 97.80
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Goran Dragic Dwyane Wade Joe Johnson Luol Deng Hassan Whiteside Proj. Starter Kemba Walker Courtney Lee Marvin Williams Frank Kaminsky Al Jefferson
Opp. Season 10 14 18 23 16 Opp. Season 1 4 12 3 8
Last 3 Weeks 5 18 11 23 19 Last 3 Weeks 3 15 1 2 26

Miami Heat

The Heat were unable to hold serve on their home floor in Game 5, losing to the Hornets by two points. They are now faced with the tough task of having to win two in a row, including Game 6 on the road in Charlotte. The Heat are listed as 2-point underdogs what should be a close, back and forth game throughout. The Heat are projected to score 94.3 points, which is the fifth highest team total on the board. Hassan Whiteside is dealing with a hand injury, but he is fully expected to play on Friday.

Elite Plays

Dwyane Wade
dwyane-wade-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$7,600 Salary:$7,600
Position:SG Position:SG
FP/Min:1.04 FP/Min:1.09
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 30.5 31.0 0.5 30.6 0.1
FPPG (FD) 31.6 31.5 -0.1 27.0 -4.6
TO-Adj. Usage 26.8 25.1 -1.7 24.6 -2.2

After their Game 5 loss, Wade said that he was going to tell his teammates about the time that the Heat came back and beat the Celtics in a similar situation a few years ago. There is one problem with that story – the Heat no longer have LeBron James. Whether his story fires his team up or not, Wade should be the focal point offensively in tonight’s Game 6. He is my favorite shooting guard play overall.

Secondary Plays

Luol Deng
luol-deng-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$6,600 Salary:$6,500
Position:PF Position:SF
FP/Min:0.75 FP/Min:0.81
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 32.4 34.9 2.5 35.3 2.9
FPPG (FD) 24.2 28.0 3.8 24.4 0.2
TO-Adj. Usage 15.0 15.5 0.5 13.8 -1.2

Small forward isn’t as deep tonight as it was last night with Kent Bazemore and Jae Crowder both in the mix. This brings Deng back into consideration on a site like DraftKings where he is listed as a small forward. Deng is obviously still a strong play on FanDuel where he is listed as a power forward. Deng has played well in this series, scoring at least 25 fantasy points in every single game. He should see 35+ minutes in a must-win game tonight.

Charlotte Hornets

The Hornets pulled off an upset in Miami to take a 3-2 series lead. They have a chance to clinch the series tonight with a win at home. The Hornets are listed as 2-point favorites in what could be the game that decides the series (the Heat would get to play Game 7 at home). The Hornets are projected to score 96.3 points, which gives them the third highest team total on the board. Nicolas Batum and Cody Zeller are listed on the injury report, but they are both expected to play.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Kemba Walker
kemba-walker-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$8,100 Salary:$8,300
Position:PG Position:PG
FP/Min:1.01 FP/Min:1.07
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 35.6 33.0 -2.6 30.4 -5.2
FPPG (FD) 36.0 33.8 -2.1 33.0 -3.0
TO-Adj. Usage 23.1 23.1 0.0 22.7 -0.4

Austin Rivers is by far the best value on the board tonight. The tough question is whether we want to pair him with Walker or Lillard. I have Lillard with a slightly higher projection overall, but the spread of that game is set at ten points. We don’t have to worry about a blowout with Walker. Plus, Kemba plays much better at home, scoring 35 and 47 fantasy points in the first two games in Charlotte in this series. He has great upside and I expect his ownership to be lower than Lillard’s.

Marvin Williams
marvin-williams-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$5,200 Salary:$5,100
Position:SF Position:PF
FP/Min:0.84 FP/Min:0.88
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 28.9 27.6 -1.3 22.4 -6.5
FPPG (FD) 24.2 24.9 0.7 22.4 -1.8
TO-Adj. Usage 14.5 16.7 2.2 19.6 5.0

I always seem to be on the wrong side of Williams. I was all-in on him when Nicolas Batum was ruled out in Game 4, but he was only able to muster up 15 fantasy points. Then with Batum back in the lineup in Game 5, he turns around and scores 33 fantasy points in Miami. Williams is far from a must play tonight, but I like the upside that he offers at his price point.

Los Angeles Clippers at Portland Trail Blazers – 10:30 PM

Los Angeles Clippers Portland Trail Blazers
laclippersnba Vegas Total 198.0 portlandnba Vegas Total 198.0
Vegas Sprd 10.0 Vegas Sprd -10.0
Team Proj. 94.0 Team Proj. 104.0
Team Pace 98.00 Team Pace 98.30
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Austin Rivers Jamal Crawford J.J. Redick Paul Pierce DeAndre Jordan Proj. Starter Damian Lillard C.J. McCollum Al-Farouq Aminu Maurice Harkless Mason Plumlee
Opp. Season 24 18 4 22 27 Opp. Season 5 3 8 13 12
Last 3 Weeks 22 6 10 24 30 Last 3 Weeks 7 1 7 26 2

Los Angeles Clippers

The Clippers were unable to pick up a win at home in Game 5 and now have to head back to Portland down 3-2 in the series. No one is giving them a chance at this point, as they are listed as 10-point underdogs in what could be the final game of the series. While the Clippers have the lowest team total on the board, the injuries to Chris Paul and Blake Griffin open the door for a number of viable fantasy options. The only concern here is a potential blowout.

Elite Plays

DeAndre Jordan
deandre-jordan-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$8,300 Salary:$8,200
Position:C Position:C
FP/Min:1.06 FP/Min:1.13
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 33.7 29.9 -3.8 29.0 -4.7
FPPG (FD) 35.7 31.5 -4.2 29.7 -6.0
TO-Adj. Usage 12.5 13.6 1.1 13.9 1.4

I really wanted to roster both Jordan and Plumlee on Wednesday night. While that was an option on DraftKings, I eventually settled on Jordan on FanDuel. You couldn’t go wrong either way, as Jordan finished with 46 fantasy points and Plumlee finished with 36 fantasy points. With Blake Griffin out, Jordan sees a small boost in minutes, usage rate, and rebounding rate. He is the top overall play at center, but I expect Plumlee to be the higher owned of the two.

Jamal Crawford
jamal-crawford-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$5,000 Salary:$5,600
Position:SG Position:SG
FP/Min:0.75 FP/Min:0.81
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 26.9 29.3 2.4 37.6 10.7
FPPG (FD) 20.2 27.1 6.9 35.6 15.4
TO-Adj. Usage 21.1 21.5 0.4 22.6 1.5

Crawford couldn’t buy a bucket in Game 5, yet he still finished with 30 fantasy points in 44 minutes of action. In my eyes, he is a must play in all league formats. The Clippers will do everything they can do force a Game 7 and I expect Crawford to play 40+ minutes once again. With Chris Paul and Blake Griffin out, he will have a very high usage rate and see all of the shot attempts that he can handle (which is a lot by the way).

Austin Rivers
austin-rivers-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$4,000 Salary:$3,900
Position:PG Position:SG
FP/Min:0.65 FP/Min:0.69
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 21.8 23.7 1.9 23.3 1.5
FPPG (FD) 14.1 21.4 7.2 16.8 2.7
TO-Adj. Usage 16.4 20.2 3.8 19.0 2.6

Rivers is also a borderline must play, at least for cash games. With Chris Paul out, he should see 35+ minutes of action against a Blazers’ defense that has not fared well against point guards this season. In his start in Game 5, Rivers played 37 minutes and scored 18 fantasy points. He is just too cheap given his expanded role in the Clippers’ offense.

Secondary Plays

Jeff Green
jeff-green-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$4,700 Salary:$4,200
Position:SF Position:SF
FP/Min:0.73 FP/Min:0.76
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 28.2 25.6 -2.6 24.0 -4.2
FPPG (FD) 20.5 19.4 -1.1 20.5 0.0
TO-Adj. Usage 17.2 20.3 3.1 22.4 5.3

Green is a borderline elite play as well, but his price has come up on both FanDuel and DraftKings. Without Chris Paul and Blake Griffin in Game 5, Green played 37 minutes and scored 32 fantasy points off the bench. I’d like to feel completely confident in this pick, but Green has let us down time and time again in similar situations over the years.

Portland Trail Blazers

The Blazers have won three straight games in this series and now have a chance to advance to the second round with a win in Game 6 at home. The crazy thing is that at one point in Game 3, many were thinking that the Clippers were going to sweep the Blazers. Portland is listed as a 10-point favorite tonight with an implied team total of 104 points. They have the highest team total and the highest projected point differential on the board.

Elite Plays

Damian Lillard
damian-lillard-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$8,200 Salary:$8,500
Position:PG Position:PG
FP/Min:1.10 FP/Min:1.19
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 35.7 33.5 -2.2 33.9 -1.8
FPPG (FD) 39.4 32.4 -7.0 37.9 -1.5
TO-Adj. Usage 27.6 26.3 -1.3 28.6 1.1

As I mentioned above, I slightly prefer Lillard over Walker to pair with Rivers at point guard. Lillard has scored at least 33 fantasy points three times in this series, but has yet to really have a great shooting performance. We know he can catch fire at any time and he sees a nice matchup boost with Chris Paul out of the lineup. The only concern here is that the Blazers blow the Clippers out and Lillard doesn’t see a full complement of minutes.

Mason Plumlee
mason-plumlee-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$6,200 Salary:$6,700
Position:C Position:C
FP/Min:0.96 FP/Min:1.04
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 25.4 25.1 -0.3 26.4 1.0
FPPG (FD) 24.3 27.4 3.1 30.6 6.2
TO-Adj. Usage 14.2 15.2 1.0 14.0 -0.2

Plumlee and Jordan were the top two center targets on Wednesday night and they are the top two center targets again in this slate. If you are playing on DraftKings, you may want to employ the two-center approach with both players. Plumlee has been a monster in this series, scoring at least 36 fantasy points in each of his last four games.

Secondary Plays

C.J. McCollum
c-j-mccollum-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$7,200 Salary:$6,800
Position:SG Position:SG
FP/Min:0.91 FP/Min:0.98
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 34.7 33.3 -1.4 34.1 -0.6
FPPG (FD) 31.6 32.8 1.2 31.3 -0.3
TO-Adj. Usage 23.6 23.3 -0.3 22.9 -0.7

With Austin Rivers and Jamal Crawford both listed as shooting guards on DraftKings, McCollum is an easy fade in cash games. He is definitely worth a look on FanDuel though, as Rivers is listed as a point guard. McCollum had 40 fantasy points in Game 5 and his price is affordable at $7,200.

Al-Farouq Aminu
al-farouq-aminu-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$5,900 Salary:$5,700
Position:SF Position:SF
FP/Min:0.75 FP/Min:0.85
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 28.5 28.7 0.2 29.2 0.7
FPPG (FD) 21.5 26.6 5.1 23.9 2.4
TO-Adj. Usage 14.3 15.5 1.2 14.2 -0.1

Aminu has taken a big leap in the postseason. His minutes have gone up and he has scored at least 21 fantasy points in each of the first five games in this series. He should see 35+ minutes in this game, as the Blazers have tightened their rotation in the postseason. He gives you a high floor at small forward, which can’t be said about many players at the position.

About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious