NBA Grind Down: Friday, April 4th - Page 2
All stat chart buttons below open in an in-screen popup window and include stat tables for all games on the given page of the Grind Down Article
Detroit at Brooklyn
- Vegas Line – Brooklyn -10, 206.5 Over/Under
- Detroit Proj. Starters – Jennings-Singler-Smith-Monroe-Drummond
- Brooklyn Proj. Starters – Williams-Livingston-Johnson-Pierce-Plumlee
Detroit
Detroit boggles my mind. They get absolutely curb-stomped by the Heat which should be expected. Then they get wrecked by the 76ers, which should never happen. Then they beat the Bucks, ok that makes sense. But on Wednesday they play Indiana, in Indiana, down to the wire. Maybe they just have the Pacers number, but it makes it really difficult for me to figure out when to target them in potential blowouts. The moral of my story, the Pistons are awesome GPP plays. They will all make or break your night. In tonight’s game in Brooklyn, the one piece of news worth noting is that Will Bynum is doubtful. Bynum has fluctuated in the 15-20 minute range over his last 5 games, so his absence will likely open up a few more minutes for Jennings and Stuckey most notably.
- Rodney Stuckey – Of all the risky Pistons starters, I’ll be looking to the bench to find value tonight. Stuckey has dropped his fair share of sub-10 point efforts, but he also has some big games in his recent log and the Nets worst DvP splits are defending the SG position. With Bynum out, he should play around 30 minutes off the bench and for $4400 on FD he is a great punt at one of the hardest positions to target.
Brooklyn
Brooklyn will try and bounce back from an embarrassing loss on Wednesday to cross-town rival New York by beating up on the Pistons. Typically I’d be thrilled to target guys facing this Pistons lackluster defense, but Brooklyn spreads their minutes around so much that it’s hard to put much faith in any of them for a GPP. You can’t pinpoint many guys expected to see over 33ish minutes and for that reason I’d be avoiding them tonight in the DFBBC.
Minnesota at Miami
- Vegas Line – Miami -9, 203.5 Over/Under
- Minnesota Proj. Starters – Rubio-Martin-Brewer-Love-Dieng
- Miami Proj. Starters – Chalmers-Douglas-James-Haslem-Bosh
Minnesota
Minnesota is 2nd in the NBA in scoring over their last ten games, averaging 110 points per game in that time. Miami on the other hand is 5th worst in the NBA averaging 94.5 PPG over their last 10. Clashing styles will be the theme here but maybe most important are the 86 PPG Miami’s defense has allowed over the last ten. The Heat aren’t playing their best basketball and they’re far from healthy but they play terrific team defense and the Wolves should struggle to score this evening. Even knowing all of that, I still think the Heat are vulnerable defending the paint and the injury to Pekovic brought back the Gorgui Dieng thunder to the NBA. Love should also be able to body the soft Bosh tonight on the glass.
- Kevin Love – The ultimate GPP play will be taking a chance on Love. His ceiling is somewhere in the 70 fantasy point range and the Heat are banged up to a point that they could play Minnesota competitively. Love seems to be putting up his best numbers against good defenses recently and just dropped 65 FP on Memphis Wednesday. It’s never easy to pay $11.2K for a guy facing one of the league’s best defenses but that line of thinking will be the difference between winning $120K and bubbling tonight.
- Gorgui Dieng – Dieng will again be a popular play tonight despite a $6.1K price point. The Heat are 25th against Centers on the year and over the last 15 days, putting Dieng in a great spot to beat up on Miami. The other positive for Dieng is that Dante Cunningham is doubtful, so the Wolves don’t have the opportunity to go small against this Heat lineup like they usually would.
Miami
I’ve been desperately trying to find a Heat player I like in this matchup because Minnesota’s defense is porous at best and the Heat are missing one of their primary scorers but no one has been a fantasy-standout over the last 4 games with Dwyane Wade injured. LeBron has two 48 FP games, but hasn’t topped that total to reach value for his $10K price point. Bosh has only topped 30 FP once in those four contests. The only guy who has really stepped up is Toney Douglas with 25+ FP in 3 of the 4 games sans-Wade.
- Toney Douglas – For $4400 and listed as a PG on FanDuel, I’m not all that bullish on Douglas because I think his ceiling falls just below 30 FP and there are similarly priced PGs with much more potential. With that said, he’s been the one Heat player who has outproduced his typical numbers significantly with Wade sidelined and an argument could definitely be made for using him as a punt.
Washington at New York
- Vegas Line – New York -4.5, 196 Over/Under
- Washington Proj. Starters – Wall-Beal-Ariza-Booker-Gortat
- New York Proj. Starters – Felton-Smith-Anthony-Stoudemire-Chandler
Washington
Washington is squarely in the Eastern Conference playoffs but earning a win over a team fighting for their playoff lives would certainly be a nice step forward for a young Wizards team. They’ll head to MSG tonight to take on the Knicks who just blew the Nets out in MSG on Wednesday. It’s hard to take too much from the Wiz’s Wednesday night game because they were also involved in a blowout. Instead I’ll look at a couple of games these teams have played this year. In those two games, Wall has averaged 45 FPPG and Beal has averaged 32 FPPG.
- John Wall – I mentioned above the success Wall has had against the Knicks this season, but the catch-22 is that Wall is significantly better at home and this game is in New York. For $8800, his price tag is reasonable enough that I would consider him but I won’t be heavily targeting him tonight.
New York
The Knicks got a HUGE game from J.R. Smith on Wednesday to blow the Nets out of that game. Amar’e was pretty good as well, posting 25 FP in 21 minutes. Both of those guys are extremely volatile and I don’t know if the associated risk is one I’ll take tonight, especially with Amar’e playing so few minutes of late. I like the way the Knicks are playing but no one has been standing out fantasy wise and their upside has been pretty limited, with the exception of J.R.
Milwaukee at Chicago
- Vegas Line – Chicago -11.5, 185.5 Over/Under
- Milwaukee Proj. Starters – Knight-Sessions-Middleton-Adrien-Pachulia
- Chicago Proj. Starters – Hinrich-Butler-Dunleavy-Boozer-Noah
Milwaukee
There’s so much value on the Bucks right now, but in Chicago it’s going to be tough to pull the trigger on any of it. The other issue with Milwaukee is that two of their best values have risen significantly in price, with Jeff Adrien jumping to $5800 and Ramon Sessions sitting at $6200. This game has blowout written all over it and the Bucks might be one of the worst traps to fall into today against the staunch Bulls defense. I won’t be targeting anyone on this side tonight.
Chicago
I could argue fitting Joakim Noah onto your lineups on almost any given night. But in a potential blowout and with a $10,100 price point I just can’t find a justification. He’s over $10K which is the biggest red flag for me. In his last 10 games, he’s only reached value for that price point in 1 game and that was the 10th most recent (aka he hasn’t reached it in his last 9). Beyond Noah, the Bulls still have some appeal because of the slew of minutes their rotation players get from Thibs. Milwaukee isn’t great defensively so there’s one guy I really like on this roster tonight.
- D.J. Augustin – Ho hum another 30 FP game from Augustin. For the DFBBC, I wouldn’t advise touching Augustin but in cash games at $5800 he seems like a safe bet to reach value and a safe bet to get minutes regardless of the score, since he comes off the bench. He doesn’t quite have that 40 FP upside but he’s consistently in the 26-33 range.
New Orleans at Utah
- Vegas Line – Utah -2.5, 196.5 Over/Under
- New Orleans Proj. Starters – Roberts-Evans-Morrow-Aminu-Ajinca
- Utah Proj. Starters – Burke-Hayward-Jefferson-Favors-Kanter
New Orleans
The Hornets are likely to be without Anthony Davis and Eric Gordon tonight, leaving them with about 9 players in the rotation who should see minutes. The biggest benefactors to the Davis injury are Alexis Ajinca and Al-Farouq Aminu. Davis missed the game last Friday when the Jazz and Pelicans played, and Ajinca had 32 fantasy points in 28 minutes. Aminu had 24 FP in 33 minutes. For Gordon, you can expect Morrow and Tyreke to benefit most significantly and Morrow is averaging 29 FP in about 28 minutes over his last two.
- Alexis Ajinca – Ajinca has shown decent upside this year when Davis is hurt, but his struggles with foul trouble always create massive risk. For $4500 on FanDuel tonight, I’d say he’s one of the better punt centers available.
- Al-Farouq Aminu – Aminu is probably a better cash game play but not having Davis will open up a good void for Aminu to fill. For $6K his price tag is a little steep on FD, but I’d consider him on other sites like DK where he’s just $4.5K.
- Tyreke Evans – Evans went from being nearly 80% owned on a nightly basis to falling off the relevancy radar when his price skyrocketed and his production plummeted. But against Utah last Friday Evans posted 55 fantasy points with Roberts, Davis and Gordon all out. Roberts return takes the ball out of Evans hand some so the 15 assists shouldn’t be replicated. But with Davis missing there are rebounds and points to be accounted for and I love Evans for the DFBBC tonight because of that upside appeal.
Utah
Add the Jazz to my list of teams that I don’t quite understand. Why a team that’s sitting in dead last in the West would continue to start the likes of Richard Jefferson is beyond me. I also struggle figuring out the enigma that is Gordon Hayward. He has just one 40+ FP game in his last ten but hasn’t posted below 20 in any contest. This will be a tough team to choose from tonight but they’re definitely intriguing with the tight -2 spread and 196 point O/U. Matchup-wise it looks like Hayward and Favors have the best DvP splits to target.
- Derrick Favors – He’s sitting at a really nice $6700 price point on FanDuel tonight and has 2 40 FP efforts in his last 4 games. With the Pelicans missing Davis and already ranking in the bottom 5 against PFs in the last 15 days, Favors matchup is pretty strong here as well.