NBA Grind Down: Friday, February 20th
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down Article. Each day, we’ll break down all of the matchups with a focus on defense vs. position stats. The Grind Down shows you Vegas lines, defense stats and projected starting lineups for each and every game.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Use this article to help you gain a better understanding of the matchups for the coming week and build from there. We have everything you could possibly need on our Daily Research console for you to be a successful daily fantasy player!
Note: Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s NFL Scoring System, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review.
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New Orleans at Orlando – 7:00 PM EST
- Vegas Line – New Orleans -5.5, 194 Over/Under
- New Orleans Proj. Starters – Evans-Gordon-Cunningham-Davis-Asik
- Orlando Proj. Starters – Payton-Oladipo-Harris-Frye-Vucevic
| New Orleans | Orlando | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 194 |  | Vegas Total | 194 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -5.5 | Vegas Sprd | 5.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 99.8 | Team Proj. | 94.3 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 94.08 | Team Pace | 95.96 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Tyreke Evans | Eric Gordon | Dante Cunningham | Anthony Davis | Omer Asik | Proj Starter | Elfrid Payton | Victor Oladipo | Tobias Harris | Channing Frye | Nikola Vucevic | |
| Opp. Season | 28 | 6 | 29 | 25 | 28 | Opp. Season | 22 | 14 | 13 | 11 | 7 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 12 | 10 | 19 | 24 | 20 | Opp. Last 7 | 25 | 22 | 29 | 24 | 7 | |
Yesterday’s two-game slate was just an appetizer compared to the 13-game feast on tap for tonight. With so many games, we will keep the team analysis short and instead focus on the picks.
New Orleans
The Pelicans are expected to have Anthony Davis back for tonight’s game against the Magic, but will still be without Jrue Holiday. The Magic have slowed their pace of play in recent weeks, but have still allowed the seventh-most points per game this season. They are also ranked 26th in rebounding differential.
Injury Note: Ryan Anderson is doubtful for tonight’s game. Anthony Davis, Omer Asik, and Alexis Ajinca should all see a small boost in his absence.
Opponent Breakdown (Orlando)
Record: 17-39
Points Allowed Per Game: 101.7 (Rank: 24)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 24
Rebounding Differential Rank: 26
Elite Plays
Anthony Davis (FD: $11000, DK: $10800 / MPG: 36 / Usage Rate: 26.9)
Davis should be close to 100% healthy, after having a week off to rest his hurt shoulder. He couldn’t have picked a better game to come back for, as the Magic have allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to opposing power forwards. He should be able to dominate the paint and create havoc on defense. With all of the value out there after the trade deadline, it’s easy to fit Davis into your lineups.
Secondary Plays
Tyreke Evans (FD: $8100, DK: $8200 / MPG: 35 / Usage Rate: 25.8)
Evans is more of a tournament play than a cash game play, but he draws a terrific matchup against the Magic. On the season, the Magic have allowed the third-most fantasy points to the point guard position. Evans is a ball-dominant guard that is able to fill up all areas of the stat sheet. Having Anthony Davis back in the lineup should help create some more driving lanes for Evans tonight.
Orlando
The Magic are looking for a strong start to the second half of the season, after losing eight of their last ten games before the break. They are 5.5-point underdogs at home tonight against the Pelicans. This is an average matchup at best. The Pelicans are ranked 16th in points allowed per game and sixth in rebounding differential this season.
Editor’s Note: Tobias Harris will miss tonight’s game due to a knee injury
Opponent Breakdown (New Orleans)
Record: 27-26
Points Allowed Per Game: 99.7 (Rank: 16)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 25
Rebounding Differential Rank: 6
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Victor Oladipo (FD: $6900, DK: $6900 / MPG: 34 / Usage Rate: 24.5)
Even though the Magic have slowed their pace of play, Oladipo has still been extremely effective on the offensive end of the floor. Over his last six games, he has averaged 31.1 fantasy points in 37 minutes per contest. He draws a serviceable matchup tonight against the Pelicans. He would also see a small boost if Tobias Harris is forced from tonight’s game.
Indiana at Philadelphia – 7:00 PM EST
- Vegas Line – Indiana -8, 186.5 Over/Under
- Indiana Proj. Starters – Hill-Miles-Hill-West-Hibbert
- Philadelphia Proj. Starters – Frazier-Sampson-Covington-Mbah a Moute-Noel
| Indiana | Philadelphia | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 186.5 |  | Vegas Total | 186.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -8.0 | Vegas Sprd | 8.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 97.3 | Team Proj. | 89.3 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 95.40 | Team Pace | 98.07 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | George Hill | C.J. Miles | Solomon Hill | David West | Roy Hibbert | Proj Starter | Tim Frazier | Jakarr Sampson | Robert Covington | Luc Mbah a Moute | Nerlens Noel | |
| Opp. Season | 23 | 29 | 22 | 30 | 30 | Opp. Season | 15 | 25 | 4 | 1 | 12 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 20 | 15 | 23 | 4 | 25 | Opp. Last 7 | 18 | 12 | 5 | 6 | 24 | |
Indiana
The Pacers aren’t the most exciting team in the NBA, but they draw a favorable fantasy matchup tonight against the Sixers. The Sixers are ranked 20th in points allowed per game and 30th in rebounding differential this season. The Pacers are large favorites in this game, but luckily it’s being played in Philadelphia, which helps the Sixers’ chances of keeping this one close.
Opponent Breakdown (Philadelphia)
Record: 12-41
Points Allowed Per Game: 100.5 (Rank: 20)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 12
Rebounding Differential Rank: 30
Elite Plays
David West (FD: $6900, DK: $6700 / MPG: 30 / Usage Rate: 22.2)
West is a very safe cash game play tonight. He has a very high floor for a player at his price point and he draws one of the more favorable matchups on the schedule. The Sixers are ranked dead last against power forwards and dead last in rebounding differential. West should see around 30 minutes tonight against arguably the worst team in the NBA.
Secondary Plays
C.J. Miles (FD: $4600, DK: $4200 / MPG: 25 / Usage Rate: 24)
Miles is not a recommended cash game play tonight, but he does deserve a look as a high-upside tournament play. Miles has the ability to catch fire at any time and offers 30+ fantasy point upside at a price under $5,000. He also draws a favorable matchup against the Sixers, who do not defend wing players well.
Philadelphia
I’m not sure that I understand the Sixers’ plan. If you are in rebuilding mode, shouldn’t you rebuild around your best young players? Before yesterday, I would have thought that Michael Carter-Williams and KJ. McDaniels were the two safest players on their roster. The Sixers are a bad team that just got much worse. They did receive Isaiah Canaan back in one of the trades, but he’s not expected to be available for tonight’s game against the Pacers.
Opponent Breakdown (Indiana)
Record: 21-33
Points Allowed Per Game: 97.2 (Rank: 6)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 11
Rebounding Differential Rank: 5
Elite Plays
Tim Frazier (FD: $3600, DK: $4300 / MPG: 36 / Usage Rate: 17.8)
Frazier was signed to another 10-day contract and will likely see all of the minutes that he can handle tonight. If Isaiah Canaan is inactive tonight, Frazier will be the only active point guard on the roster. He has been inconsistent in his first few career starts, but it’s hard to pass on a starting point guard at this price point.
Secondary Plays
Robert Covington (FD: $6600, DK: $6000 / MPG: 28 / Usage Rate: 21)
The matchup against the Pacers isn’t ideal, but Covington should see an uptick in minutes tonight. With K.J. McDaniels and Michael Carter-Williams gone, that opens up over 60 minutes of playing time. Covington could reasonably play 40 minutes tonight, which puts him in play against the Pacers.
Toronto at Atlanta – 7:30 PM EST
- Vegas Line – Atlanta -5.5, 204.5 Over/Under
- Toronto Proj. Starters – Lowry-DeRozan-Johnson-Johnson-Valanciunas
- Atlanta Proj. Starters – Teague-Korver-Carroll-Millsap-Horford
| Toronto | Atlanta | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 204.5 |  | Vegas Total | 204.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 5.5 | Vegas Sprd | -5.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 99.5 | Team Proj. | 105.0 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 95.62 | Team Pace | 96.10 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Kyle Lowry | DeMar DeRozan | James Johnson | Amir Johnson | Jonas Valanciunas | Proj Starter | Jeff Teague | Kyle Korver | DeMarre Carroll | Paul Millsap | Al Horford | |
| Opp. Season | 17 | 13 | 19 | 16 | 6 | Opp. Season | 19 | 10 | 18 | 7 | 11 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 27 | 19 | 17 | 23 | 15 | Opp. Last 7 | 17 | 24 | 6 | 28 | 3 | |
Toronto
Tonight’s game between the Raptors and Hawks will be a battle between two of the best that the Eastern Conference has to offer. The Raptors are listed as 5.5-point favorites in this game, with the total set at 204.5 points. This is a tough matchup on paper. While the Hawks are one of the worst rebounding teams in the NBA, they are ranked sixth in defensive efficiency and third in points allowed per game this season.
Opponent Breakdown (Atlanta)
Record: 43-11
Points Allowed Per Game: 96.8 (Rank: 3)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 6
Rebounding Differential Rank: 27
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
DeMar DeRozan (FD: $6900, DK: $7200 / MPG: 33 / Usage Rate: 28.1)
The Raptors are a team that can easily be avoided altogether tonight. With so many options, you don’t need to force a Raptor into your lineup. However, if you want some exposure here, DeRozan is the preferred target. He is still sitting at a very playable price point and he has scored at least 33 fantasy points in seven of his last ten games.
Atlanta
The Hawks will look to improve on their 25-3 record at home tonight against the Raptors. This is a favorable matchup in most respects. The Raptors are ranked 21st in defensive efficiency this season and are an average rebounding team at best. The Hawks’ team total is set at 105 points, which is slightly higher than their season average.
Opponent Breakdown (Toronto)
Record: 36-17
Points Allowed Per Game: 100.7 (Rank: 21)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 18
Rebounding Differential Rank: 17
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Paul Millsap (FD: $7800, DK: $7800 / MPG: 33 / Usage Rate: 23.2)
Al Horford and DeMarre Carroll would typically be on my radar, but there are so many other options at their respective positions that I don’t find myself targeting either player tonight. Millsap deserves consideration though. He is affordable across the industry and has scored at least 36 fantasy points four times in his last ten games.
Chicago at Detroit – 7:30 PM EST
- Vegas Line – Chicago -6, 193.5 Over/Under
- Chicago Proj. Starters – Rose-Butler-Dunleavy-Gasol-Noah
- Detroit Proj. Starters – Dinwiddie-Meeks-Caldwell-Pope-Monroe-Drummond
| Chicago | Detroit | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 193.5 |  | Vegas Total | 193.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -6.0 | Vegas Sprd | 6.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 99.8 | Team Proj. | 93.8 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 95.68 | Team Pace | 95.60 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Derrick Rose | Jimmy Butler | Mike Dunleavy | Pau Gasol | Joakim Noah | Proj Starter | Spencer Dinwiddie | Jodie Meeks | Kentavious Caldwell-Pope | Greg Monroe | Andre Drummond | |
| Opp. Season | 5 | 15 | 27 | 27 | 27 | Opp. Season | 12 | 2 | 21 | 24 | 14 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 4 | 13 | 3 | 10 | 27 | Opp. Last 7 | 8 | 17 | 14 | 11 | 2 | |
Chicago
The Bulls are currently riding a four-game winning streak. Their goal for the second half of the season is two-fold. They want to try to catch the Hawks and Raptors, while keeping their distance from the Wizards and Cavaliers. Tonight they head to Detroit to take on a Pistons’ team that will be short-handed after the trade deadline. Derrick Rose is a decent option here, but the frontcourt of the Bulls draws the best matchup.
Opponent Breakdown (Detroit)
Record: 21-33
Points Allowed Per Game: 99.8 (Rank: 17)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 16
Rebounding Differential Rank: 9
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Pau Gasol (FD: $9700, DK: $9700 / MPG: 35 / Usage Rate: 23.7)
How about the resurgent season that Gasol is having? He is averaging 18 points, 12 rebounds, 3 assists, and 2 blocks per game. He draws a favorable matchup tonight against the Pistons, who have allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing power forwards this season. Gasol would be an elite play tonight were it not for his hefty price tag on both FanDuel and DraftKings.
Joakim Noah (FD: $6800, DK: $6900 / MPG: 30 / Usage Rate: 14)
It’s safe to say that the Noah from the 2013-14 season is back. Over his last eight games, he has scored at least 33 fantasy points five times. During that stretch, he has played at least 32 minutes six times. The minutes, production, and matchup are all there tonight against the Pistons. It’s just hard to argue that he’s a better play than some of the other options at center.
Detroit
The Pistons traded D.J. Augustin and Kyle Singler yesterday. In return, they bring back Reggie Jackson. All in all, it wasn’t a bad trade for the Pistons. Jackson will finally get a chance to prove that he is capable of being a starting point guard in the NBA. Jackson will not be available for tonight’s game though, which means Spencer Dinwiddie will draw his first career start.
Opponent Breakdown (Chicago)
Record: 34-20
Points Allowed Per Game: 99.1 (Rank: 12)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 13
Rebounding Differential Rank: 7
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Greg Monroe (FD: $7700, DK: $8000 / MPG: 30 / Usage Rate: 23.7)
With D.J. Augustin headed to Oklahoma City and Reggie Jackson ruled out of tonight’s contest, Monroe should see an uptick in usage. He’s shown that type of upside that he can bring to the table and an increased role in the offense only helps his case. He also draws a favorable matchup against a Bulls’ team that has allowed the seventh-most fantasy points to opposing power forwards.
Spencer Dinwiddie (FD: $3500, DK: $3000 / MPG: 10 / Usage Rate: 17.9)
There will likely be three cheap starting point guards available tonight. We have Bayless against the Nuggets, Frazier against the Pacers, and Dinwiddie against the Bulls. Dinwiddie is my least favorite of the three, but he should still reach value with ease. He’s at the bare-minimum salary across the industry.
Miami at New York – 7:30 PM EST
- Vegas Line – Miami -5.5, 181.5 Over/Under
- Miami Proj. Starters – Chalmers-Wade-Deng-Haslem-Whiteside
- New York Proj. Starters – Calderon-Galloway-Hardaway-Smith-Amundson
| Miami | New York | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 181.5 |  | Vegas Total | 181.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -5.5 | Vegas Sprd | 5.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 93.5 | Team Proj. | 88.0 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 91.85 | Team Pace | 92.73 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Mario Chalmers | Dwyane Wade | Luol Deng | Udonis Haslem | Hassan Whiteside | Proj Starter | Jose Calderon | Langston Galloway | Tim Hardaway | Jason Smith | Louis Amundson | |
| Opp. Season | 24 | 23 | 2 | 6 | 22 | Opp. Season | 14 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 8 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 14 | 1 | 10 | 26 | 30 | Opp. Last 7 | 24 | 21 | 28 | 5 | 12 | |
Miami
The Heat received bad news today. They will be without Chris Bosh for the remainder of the season. Luckily, they found the blood clot early and we all hope for a full recovery. The Heat are expected to have Dwyane Wade back in the lineup tonight, as they head to New York to take on the Knicks. This game has little fantasy appeal though, as the total is set at a measly 181.5 points.
Opponent Breakdown (New York)
Record: 10-43
Points Allowed Per Game: 100.2 (Rank: 19)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 28
Rebounding Differential Rank: 28
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Hassan Whiteside (FD: $7700, DK: $7600 / MPG: 20 / Usage Rate: 21.2)
On a smaller slate, Whiteside would easily be one of the top plays at his position, but there is a ton of value at center tonight. This leaves Whiteside as a secondary play and one that is best suited for tournaments. He should see a small boost with Chris Bosh out of the lineup and we all know the type of upside that he has.
New York
Carmelo Anthony has been shut down for the rest of the season, which means the Knicks are now in all-out tank mode. They draw a tough matchup tonight against the Heat. Not only do the Heat play at the slowest pace of any team in the NBA, but they have also held their opponents to the second-fewest points per game. With 12 other games on the schedule, it’s not hard to find more appealing matchups.
Opponent Breakdown (Miami)
Record: 22-30
Points Allowed Per Game: 96.6 (Rank: 2)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 21
Rebounding Differential Rank: 24
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
None