NBA Grind Down: Friday, February 20th - Page Two
Phoenix at Minnesota – 8:00 PM EST
- Vegas Line – Minnesota -2.5, 209.5 Over/Under
- Phoenix Proj. Starters – Bledsoe-Green-Tucker-Morris-Len
- Minnesota Proj. Starters – Rubio-Martin-Wiggins-Dieng-Pekovic
| Phoenix | Minnesota | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 209 |  | Vegas Total | 209 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 2.5 | Vegas Sprd | -2.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 103.50 | Team Proj. | 106.00 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 99.19 | Team Pace | 97.36 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Eric Bledsoe | Gerald Green | P.J. Tucker | Markieff Morris | Alex Len | Proj Starter | Ricky Rubio | Kevin Martin | Andrew Wiggins | Gorgui Dieng | Nikola Pekovic | |
| Opp. Season | 29 | 22 | 30 | 26 | 29 | Opp. Season | 9 | 24 | 28 | 8 | 23 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 16 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 28 | Opp. Last 7 | 3 | 23 | 15 | 7 | 22 | |
Phoenix
The Suns were very active yesterday, trading away Goran Dragic and Isaiah Thomas. The prize they acquired in return was Brandon Knight, who is having a breakout season. Knight is not expected to be available for tonight’s game, which leaves plenty of minutes for the likes of Eric Bledsoe, Gerald Green, and P.J. Tucker. In addition to the uptick in minutes, they also draw a favorable matchup against a Wolves’ team that has allowed the second-most points per game this season.
Opponent Breakdown (Minnesota)
Record: 11-42
Points Allowed Per Game: 106.1 (Rank: 29)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 30
Rebounding Differential Rank: 21
Elite Plays
Eric Bledsoe (FD: $8400, DK: $8000 / MPG: 34 / Usage Rate: 23.8)
Bledsoe may be the happiest player after yesterday’s trade deadline. Not only did the Suns trade Goran Dragic, but they also traded Isaiah Thomas who vultured some of his minutes in the first half of the season. As long as Brandon Knight is inactive tonight, Bledsoe should see all of the run that he can handle in a very favorable matchup against Ricky Rubio.
P.J. Tucker (FD: $4700, DK: $4700 / MPG: 29 / Usage Rate: 12.4)
With Goran Dragic and Isaiah Thomas no longer in the picture, there are a ton of minutes open at the wing tonight. Tucker should see 35+ minutes of action in a favorable matchup against the Wolves. At his price points, he should meet and exceed value with ease. He’s a low-risk, medium-reward option in all league formats.
Gerald Green (FD: $3900, DK: $3000 / MPG: 21 / Usage Rate: 28.2)
Dollar for dollar, Green is one of the top plays at any position tonight. He is expected to enter the starting lineup and he’ll immediately push for 30+ minutes of action. He is close to minimum salary across the industry (he’s a steal on DraftKings) and if he scores 20 fantasy points, he will exceed value expectations. There are plenty of values to choose from tonight, but few have the type of upside that Green provides.
Secondary Plays
Markieff Morris (FD: $6200, DK: $6300) and Alex Len (FD: $4400, DK: $3000) are both viable secondary options at their respective positions.
Minnesota
The Wolves traded Thaddeus Young for Kevin Garnett. This wasn’t the best basketball move made yesterday, but Garnett returns to where he started his career. The trade should also open up minutes for the Wolves’ talented young big man, Gorgui Dieng. Tonight’s contest against the Suns is expected to be a close, high-scoring affair, which is the perfect scenario in daily fantasy basketball.
Opponent Breakdown (Phoenix)
Record: 29-25
Points Allowed Per Game: 104.7 (Rank: 28)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 17
Rebounding Differential Rank: 24
Elite Plays
Kevin Martin (FD: $6800, DK: $6300 / MPG: 33 / Usage Rate: 26.4)
Martin has played extremely well since coming back from injury. Over his last eight games, he has averaged 22 points, 4 rebounds, and 2 assists per contest. Martin should also see a small fantasy boost now that the Wolves have traded away Thaddeus Young. Martin is now the clear-cut number one option offensively.
Gorgui Dieng (FD: $6200, DK: $4800 / MPG: 29 / Usage Rate: 15.4)
Dieng should slide into the starting lineup tonight against the Suns. His price on DraftKings is only $4,800. Let me repeat that, his price on DraftKings is only $4,800! This is a night where you should do everything possible to take two or more centers wherever possible. Dieng is even a strong play on FanDuel at a price of $6,200.
Editor’s Note: Anthony Bennett will start over Dieng at power forward.
Secondary Plays
Andrew Wiggins (FD: $6500, DK: $5900) and Nikola Pekovic (FD: $6200, DK: $5300) are both viable secondary options at their respective positions.
Cleveland at Washington – 8:00 PM EST
- Vegas Line – Cleveland -3, 198 Over/Under
- Cleveland Proj. Starters – Irving-Smith-James-Love-Mozgov
- Washington Proj. Starters – Wall-Porter-Pierce-Hilario-Gortat
| Cleveland | Washington | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 198 |  | Vegas Total | 198 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -3.00 | Vegas Sprd | 3.00 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 100.5 | Team Proj. | 97.5 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 94.73 | Team Pace | 95.68 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Kyrie Irving | J.R. Smith | LeBron James | Kevin Love | Timofey Mozgov | Proj Starter | John Wall | Otto Porter | Paul Pierce | Nene Hilario | Marcin Gortat | |
| Opp. Season | 7 | 3 | 8 | 3 | 3 | Opp. Season | 11 | 21 | 25 | 18 | 13 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 19 | 4 | 7 | 9 | 13 | Opp. Last 7 | 28 | 16 | 4 | 30 | 4 | |
Cleveland
The Cavaliers lost to the Bulls right before the All-Star break, but have still won eight of their last ten games. They are now only four games out of the second seed in the Eastern Conference. They draw a tough matchup tonight against the Wizards in Washington. The Cavaliers are 3-point favorites in a game that features a total of 198 points. While this should be a fun game to watch, it is void of fantasy appeal. The Wizards are ranked eight in points per game and third in rebounding differential.
Opponent Breakdown (Washington)
Record: 33-21
Points Allowed Per Game: 97.3 (Rank: 8)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 5
Rebounding Differential Rank: 3
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
None
Washington
The Wizards are 3-point underdogs at home. It says more about the way that the Cavaliers are playing than it does the Wizards though. While the Cavaliers have been average defensively on the season, they have picked up their play over the last few weeks. The Wizards’ team total is set at only 97.5 points, which is considerably lower than their season average.
Injury Note: Bradley Beal will not play tonight. Otto Porter will likely draw the start at shooting guard.
Opponent Breakdown (Cleveland)
Record: 33-22
Points Allowed Per Game: 99.3 (Rank: 13)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 22
Rebounding Differential Rank: 8
Elite Plays
John Wall (FD: $9100, DK: $8600 / MPG: 36 / Usage Rate: 24.9)
Wall is the one player from this game that I will have a fair amount of exposure to tonight. His price is more than reasonable across the industry, he has had terrific splits at home, and he has had great success against LeBron-led teams in his career. Wall has legitimate 50 fantasy point upside tonight against the Cavaliers.
Secondary Plays
None
Houston at Dallas – 8:30 PM EST
- Vegas Line – Dallas -2, 210.5 Over/Under
- Houston Proj. Starters – Beverley-Harden-Ariza-Motiejunas-Dorsey
- Dallas Proj. Starters – Rondo-Ellis-Parsons-Nowitzki-Chandler
| Houston | Dallas | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 210.5 |  | Vegas Total | 210.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 2.0 | Vegas Sprd | -2.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 104.25 | Team Proj. | 106.25 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 98.66 | Team Pace | 96.56 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Patrick Beverley | James Harden | Trevor Ariza | Donatas Motiejunas | Joey Dorsey | Proj Starter | Rajon Rondo | Monta Ellis | Chandler Parsons | Dirk Nowitzki | Tyson Chandler | |
| Opp. Season | 25 | 4 | 14 | 10 | 15 | Opp. Season | 2 | 27 | 11 | 19 | 17 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 29 | 11 | 18 | 16 | 18 | Opp. Last 7 | 11 | 27 | 1 | 18 | 11 | |
Houston
The Rockets have been able to tread water with Dwight Howard sidelined. They have managed to win seven of their last ten games and still sit in the fourth-seed in the Western Conference. Tonight they head to Dallas to take on a Mavericks’ team that seems to be struggling with their identity. The Rockets are 2-point underdogs in this game with their team total set at 104.3 points.
Opponent Breakdown (Dallas)
Record: 36-20
Points Allowed Per Game: 101 (Rank: 22)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 14
Rebounding Differential Rank: 29
Elite Plays
James Harden (FD: $10800, DK: $10500 / MPG: 37 / Usage Rate: 31.2)
Dwight Howard remains out for Houston, which means Harden will continue to carry the load offensively. In his last six games before the All-Star break, he averaged 49.5 fantasy points per contest. He draws a favorable matchup tonight against the Mavericks, who play at a brisk pace. The Mavericks have also allowed the ninth-most points per game to their opponents this season.
Secondary Plays
Josh Smith (FD: $6500, DK: $6900 / MPG: 29 / Usage Rate: 24.6)
Even though he has been on fire over the last couple of weeks, I wouldn’t consider J-Smoove anything more than a GPP play tonight. He does offer great upside at his price point though. He has averaged 34.8 fantasy points per game over his last eight outings, including a 34.2 fantasy point effort against this same Mavericks’ team.
Trevor Ariza (FD: $5600, DK: $5700 / MPG: 36 / Usage Rate: 16.9)
Ariza is a solid mid-range option at small forward tonight. He really played well leading up to the All-Star break, averaging 31.7 fantasy points per game in his last six contests. He draws a decent matchup against Chandler Parsons and the Mavericks, who have been average against opposing small forwards this season.
Dallas
The Mavericks are playing in the tail end of a back-to-back after losing to the Thunder last night. They are listed as 2-point favorites tonight against the Rockets in a game that features a total of 210.5 points. The Rockets have been stout defensively this season, but have fallen in most defensive categories since the Dwight Howard injury. While I don’t mind the matchup, it’s hard to predict where the production is going to come from.
Opponent Breakdown (Houston)
Record: 36-17
Points Allowed Per Game: 99.8 (Rank: 17)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 8
Rebounding Differential Rank: 11
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
None
Denver at Milwaukee – 8:30 PM EST
- Vegas Line – Milwaukee -7.5, 198.5 Over/Under
- Denver Proj. Starters – Lawson-Gallinari-Chandler-Faried-Nurkic
- Milwaukee Proj. Starters – Bayless-Middleton-Antetokounmpo-Dudley-Henson
| Denver | Milwaukee | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 198.5 |  | Vegas Total | 198.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 7.50 | Vegas Sprd | -7.50 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 95.5 | Team Proj. | 103 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 98.35 | Team Pace | 96.37 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Ty Lawson | Danilo Gallinari | Wilson Chandler | Kenneth Faried | Jusuf Nurkic | Proj Starter | Jerryd Bayless | Khris Middleton | Giannis Antetokounmpo | Jared Dudley | John Henson | |
| Opp. Season | 1 | 12 | 26 | 9 | 19 | Opp. Season | 16 | 26 | 23 | 29 | 24 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 1 | 20 | 24 | 20 | 21 | Opp. Last 7 | 26 | 18 | 26 | 19 | 8 | |
Denver
The Nuggets traded Arron Afflalo and Javale McGee yesterday. This isn’t a huge splash fantasy-wise, but it should open up some more minutes for Randy Foye and Danilo Gallinari. The Nuggets are 7.5-point underdogs tonight against the Bucks in Milwaukee. This is not an ideal matchup, as the Bucks are have held their opponents to the sixth-fewest points per game this season.
Opponent Breakdown (Milwaukee)
Record: 30-23
Points Allowed Per Game: 97.2 (Rank: 6)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 2
Rebounding Differential Rank: 22
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Wilson Chandler (FD: $5900, DK: $5500) and Danilo Gallinari (FD: $3600, DK: $3800) should both see a boost with Arron Afflalo gone. Both are decent secondary options tonight, but again, this isn’t the most friendly matchup on the board.
Milwaukee
The Bucks made a big splash yesterday by trading Brandon Knight, who was having a breakout season. The Bucks did get Michael Carter-Williams in return though, which could be a great move if he turns out to be a superstar in the NBA. MCW is not expected to play tonight though, which means Jerryd Bayless should handle most of the point guard duties. The Bucks’ matchup against the Nuggets is a favorable one, as they have allowed the fifth-most points per game this season.
Opponent Breakdown (Denver)
Record: 20-33
Points Allowed Per Game: 104.1 (Rank: 26)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 23
Rebounding Differential Rank: 15
Elite Plays
Jerryd Bayless (FD: $4100, DK: $3600 / MPG: 21 / Usage Rate: 19.1)
Bayless suffered a hip contusion before the All-Star break, so make sure to check his status as we get closer to tip-off. Assuming he is able to play, he is one of the top value plays on the board. He should see the majority of the minutes at point guard and he’s proven that he can post some monster fantasy outings when given the opportunity.
Secondary Plays
Giannis Antetokounmpo (FD: $6700, DK: $7400 / MPG: 30 / Usage Rate: 19.4)
We typically like to target bigs against the Nuggets, but Henson, Pachulia, Dudley, and Ilyasova are all splitting minutes in the frontcourt. Antetokounmpo on the other hand, is seeing all of the run that he can handle. Over his last six games, he has averaged 37.6 fantasy points in 34 minutes per contest. Don’t sleep on the Greek Alphabet tonight against the uptempo Nuggets.
Portland at Utah – 9:00 PM EST
- Vegas Line – Portland -5.5, 193 Over/Under
- Portland Proj. Starters – Lillard-Matthews-Batum-Aldridge-Lopez
- Utah Proj. Starters – Exum-Millsap-Hayward-Favors-Gobert
| Portland | Utah | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 193 |  | Vegas Total | 193 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -5.5 | Vegas Sprd | 5.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 99.3 | Team Proj. | 93.8 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 96.61 | Team Pace | 92.77 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Damian Lillard | Wesley Matthews | Nicolas Batum | LaMarcus Aldridge | Robin Lopez | Proj Starter | Dante Exum | Elijah Millsap | Gordon Hayward | Derrick Favors | Rudy Gobert | |
| Opp. Season | 13 | 17 | 10 | 13 | 2 | Opp. Season | 21 | 18 | 12 | 2 | 9 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 15 | 9 | 20 | 22 | 10 | Opp. Last 7 | 2 | 30 | 9 | 3 | 14 | |
Portland
The Blazers solidified their bench by trading for Arron Afflalo yesterday. This will help ease the load from Nicolas Batum and Wesley Matthews, who were both being asked to play a ton of minutes. The Blazers head to Utah tonight to take on the Jazz in what is expected to be a low scoring affair. The Blazers are 5.5-point favorites with the total for the game set at only 193 points.
Opponent Breakdown (Utah)
Record: 19-34
Points Allowed Per Game: 98.2 (Rank: 10)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 27
Rebounding Differential Rank: 2
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
LaMarcus Aldridge (FD: $9600, DK: $9400 / MPG: 36 / Usage Rate: 29.9)
It’s hard to believe, but Aldridge is actually cheaper than Pau Gasol these days. His matchup against the large frontcourt of the Jazz isn’t great, but he has 50 fantasy point upside every time he steps onto the floor. He has also scored at least 37 fantasy points in eight of his last ten games.
Utah
The Jazz would be an easy team to avoid altogether tonight if it weren’t for the trade that they made yesterday. They traded Enes Kanter to the Thunder, which should free the beast that is Rudy Gobert. The trade should also solidify the minutes of Derrick Favors moving forward.
Opponent Breakdown (Portland)
Record: 36-17
Points Allowed Per Game: 97.3 (Rank: 8)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 3
Rebounding Differential Rank: 11
Elite Plays
Rudy Gobert (FD: $5700, DK: $4500 / MPG: 22 / Usage Rate: 13.5)
I’m pretty sure the enitre DFS community was excited to see Enes Kanter get dealt. Gobert will finally get the minutes that he deserves. He has been extremely productive this season, averaging 1.03 fantasy points per minute. He should see around 35 minutes tonight against the Blazers. Gobert is hosting a block party tonight and we are all invited. It’s hard to pass on Gobert at his price point, especially on DraftKings ($4,500).
Secondary Plays
None