NBA Grind Down: Friday, February 20th - Page Three
Boston at Sacramento – 10:00 PM EST
- Vegas Line – Sacramento -3.5, 204.5 Over/Under
- Boston Proj. Starters – Smart-Bradley-Turner-Bass-Zeller
- Sacramento Proj. Starters – Collison-McLemore-Gay-Thompson-Cousins
| Boston | Sacramento | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 204 |  | Vegas Total | 204 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 3.5 | Vegas Sprd | -3.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 100.50 | Team Proj. | 104.00 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 98.49 | Team Pace | 97.2 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Marcus Smart | Avery Bradley | Evan Turner | Brandon Bass | Tyler Zeller | Proj Starter | Darren Collison | Ben McLemore | Rudy Gay | Jason Thompson | DeMarcus Cousins | |
| Opp. Season | 27 | 30 | 6 | 20 | 26 | Opp. Season | 20 | 5 | 15 | 28 | 21 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 21 | 28 | 16 | 15 | 29 | Opp. Last 7 | 6 | 26 | 13 | 2 | 17 | |
Boston
The Celtics traded for Isaiah Thomas, which further clouds what they are planning to do with rookie Marcus Smart. It was a solid trade though, as all they had to give up was Marcus Thornton and the Cavaliers’ 2016 first-round draft pick. Tonight they Celtics head to Sacramento to take on the Kings in what is expected to be a close, high-scoring game.
Injury Note: Jared Sullinger and Kelly Olynyk have both been ruled out of tonight’s game. Newly acquired Isaiah Thomas is not expected to be available either.
Opponent Breakdown (Sacramento)
Record: 18-34
Points Allowed Per Game: 104.2 (Rank: 27)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 26
Rebounding Differential Rank: 1
Elite Plays
Brandon Bass (FD: $4600, DK: $4200 / MPG: 21 / Usage Rate: 21.5)
With Jared Sullinger and Kelly Olynyk both out tonight, there will be a ton of minutes of Bass and Tyler Zeller. Of the two, I prefer Bass, as he will likely start at power forward and avoid the foul-drawing machine that is DeMarcus Cousins. Bass is cheap across the industry and offers great value at his price point.
Secondary Plays
Marcus Smart (FD: $4700, DK: $4800 / MPG: 24 / Usage Rate: 14.8)
Smart is an intriguing tournament option tonight against the Kings. With all of the other value at point guard, Smart will get overlooked, despite the fact that he has scored at least 23 fantasy points in four of his last six games. Use Smart as a GPP play against the Kings, who have allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing point guards this season.
Sacramento
The Kings are yet another team that may offer a discounted option at point guard. They traded Ramon Sessions yesterday and Darren Collison is questionable for tonight’s game. If Collison is forced to sit, Ray McCallum would draw the start at point guard. In terms of the matchup, this is one of the best on the board. The Celtics are a fast-paced team that has allowed the sixth-most points per game this season.
Opponent Breakdown (Boston)
Record: 20-31
Points Allowed Per Game: 102.3 (Rank: 25)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 15
Rebounding Differential Rank: 17
Elite Plays
DeMarcus Cousins (FD: $11000, DK: $10600 / MPG: 35 / Usage Rate: 33.8)
Cousins has as much upside as any player on the schedule tonight. Not only is he DeMarcus Cousins, but he is facing an extremely short-handed Celtics’ frontcourt. He should dominate the likes of Tyler Zeller and Brandon Bass down low. He is the premier option at center tonight if you don’t want to take the value route at the position.
Ray McCallum (FD: $3500, DK: $3000 / MPG: 14 / Usage Rate: 17.4)
If, and only if, Darren Collison is unable to suit up tonight, McCallum would become another excellent value play at point guard.
Secondary Plays
None
San Antonio at Golden State – 10:30 PM EST
- Vegas Line – Golden State -7.5, 208 Over/Under
- San Antonio Proj. Starters – Parker-Green-Leonard-Duncan-Baynes
- Golden State Proj. Starters – Curry-Thompson-Barnes-Green-Bogut
| San Antonio | Golden State | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 208 |  | Vegas Total | 208 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 7.50 | Vegas Sprd | -7.50 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 100.25 | Team Proj. | 107.75 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 95.33 | Team Pace | 101.2 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Tony Parker | Danny Green | Kawhi Leonard | Tim Duncan | Aron Baynes | Proj Starter | Stephen Curry | Klay Thompson | Harrison Barnes | Draymond Green | Andrew Bogut | |
| Opp. Season | 10 | 9 | 9 | 17 | 20 | Opp. Season | 8 | 1 | 1 | 21 | 18 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 13 | 6 | 12 | 12 | 26 | Opp. Last 7 | 7 | 8 | 21 | 21 | 16 | |
San Antonio
The Spurs are playing in the tail end of a back-to-back after exerting a ton of energy in a close loss to the Clippers last night. After the long All-Star break, you would think the starters would be able to play their usual complement of minutes tonight, but we just never know with Coach Popovich at the helm. With so many other options tonight, the Spurs can safely be avoided in cash games. Use the Spurs’ players as contrarian GPP plays against a defensive-minded Warriors’ team.
Opponent Breakdown (Golden State)
Record: 42-9
Points Allowed Per Game: 99.6 (Rank: 15)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 1
Rebounding Differential Rank: 16
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
None
Golden State
The Warriors boast the NBA’s best home record at 23-2. They will look to improve on that mark tonight against the Spurs. The Warriors are 7.5-point favorites in this one with the total set at 208 points. While the total for the game is relatively high, this is a tough matchup on paper. The Spurs are ranked fifth in points allowed per game and ninth in rebounding differential this season.
Opponent Breakdown (San Antonio)
Record: 34-20
Points Allowed Per Game: 97.1 (Rank: 5)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 3
Rebounding Differential Rank: 9
Elite Plays
Stephen Curry (FD: $10000, DK: $9900 / MPG: 33 / Usage Rate: 28.3)
With all of the value available tonight, we are going to have to spend up somewhere. Curry ended the first half of the season on a high note. In his last eight games before the All-Star break, he scored at least 45 fantasy points six times. He does draw a tough matchup against the Spurs, but Curry is about as matchup-proof as they come. Plus, the Spurs don’t mind getting into a track meet every now and then.
Secondary Plays
None
Brooklyn at L.A. Lakers – 10:30 PM EST
- Vegas Line – Brooklyn -3.5, 193 Over/Under
- Brooklyn Proj. Starters – Jack-Anderson-Johnson-Lopez-Plumlee
- L.A. Lakers Proj. Starters – Clarkson-Ellington-Kelly-Black-Sacre
| Brooklyn | L.A. Lakers | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 193 |  | Vegas Total | 193 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -3.5 | Vegas Sprd | 3.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 98.25 | Team Proj. | 94.75 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 94.18 | Team Pace | 96.61 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Jarrett Jack | Alan Anderson | Joe Johnson | Brook Lopez | Mason Plumlee | Proj Starter | Jordan Clarkson | Wayne Ellington | Ryan Kelly | Tarik Black | Robert Sacre | |
| Opp. Season | 30 | 20 | 17 | 12 | 25 | Opp. Season | 18 | 28 | 7 | 23 | 10 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 22 | 14 | 27 | 13 | 23 | Opp. Last 7 | 10 | 25 | 22 | 14 | 19 | |
Brooklyn
The Nets traded Kevin Garnett for Thaddeus Young yesterday. They obviously got the better end of the deal, as they get a solid young player in return for Garnett. Young is not expected to play tonight though, as the Nets take on the Lakers in Los Angeles. This is one of the better matchups on the board, as the Lakers are ranked dead last in points allowed per game this season.
Editor’s Note: Thaddeus Young will suit up tonight. Jarrett Jack will miss tonight’s game due to injury.
Opponent Breakdown (L.A. Lakers)
Record: 13-40
Points Allowed Per Game: 106.2 (Rank: 30)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 29
Rebounding Differential Rank: 20
Elite Plays
Brook Lopez (FD: $6600, DK: $6600 / MPG: 27 / Usage Rate: 26.8)
Lopez is one of the many fine options at center tonight. With Kevin Garnett gone and Thaddeus Young not expected to play, he should draw the start tonight against the Lakers. He has really played well in limited minutes over the last few weeks and has a great chance to break out tonight against the Lakers, who are ranked 25th against centers and 20th in rebounding differential.
Secondary Plays
Joe Johnson (FD: $6100, DK: $5700 / MPG: 36 / Usage Rate: 21.9)
Johnson’s price is still depressed across the industry, despite scoring at least 25 fantasy points in seven of his last eight games. During that stretch, he has topped the 30 fantasy point mark three times. He will get overlooked tonight, which makes him an intriguing tournament play against the Lakers.
L.A. Lakers
The Lakers have nothing to play for at this point. The worst part is that head coach Byron Scott seems to have a new rotation for every game. On a night with 12 other games on the schedule, the Lakers can safely be avoided in all league formats.
Opponent Breakdown (Brooklyn)
Record: 21-31
Points Allowed Per Game: 99.5 (Rank: 14)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 20
Rebounding Differential Rank: 23
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
None