NBA Grind Down: Friday, February 21st

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2014-02-21 20:34:51

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down Article. Each day, we’ll break down all of the matchups with a focus on defense vs. position stats. The Grind Down shows you Vegas lines, defense stats and projected starting lineups for each and every game.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Use this article to help you gain a better understanding of the matchups for the coming week and build from there. We have everything you could possibly need on our Daily Research console for you to be a successful daily fantasy player!

Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s NFL Scoring System, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review

Click ‘Stat Chart’ Buttons Below for Pop-Ups of Essential Game-Specific Statistics including Defense vs. Position and Pace

New Orleans at Charlotte

Vegas Line – Charlotte -4, 191.5 Over/Under
New Orleans Proj. Starters – Roberts-Gordon-Aminu-Davis-Ajinca
Charlotte Proj. Starters – Walker-Henderson-Kidd-Gilchrist-McRoberts-Jefferson

New Orleans

The Pelicans and Bobcats both play at a fairly slow pace. Both teams average less than 95 possessions per game which is slightly below the league average. The total for this game is set at 191 points which is also pretty average in terms of fantasy potential. As far as the matchup for the Pelicans, the two positions with the best matchups are the PG and Center positions as the Bobcats are ranked 18th and 26th against those two positions. However, neither Brian Roberts nor Alexis Ajinca really stand out as viable fantasy options.

Anthony Davis – Even though the Bobcats have defended the PF position well this season, they haven’t had to deal with many PF’s like The Brow. His length creates problems on both ends of the floor that most teams just aren’t used to seeing. Davis’ price has come down on quite a few sites too. He’s less than $10k on both FD & DK, he’s only $18k on DS, and he’s extremely cheap on SS at only $15k. Don’t let the matchup scare you off of Davis tonight.

Charlotte

The Bobcats have a pretty decent matchup against the Pelicans who are allowing 101 points per game to their opponents this season. The Bobcats have played well at home lately and have started to push the pace now that Kemba Walker is back in the lineup. Looking at the DvP rankings of the Pelicans, there are three positions that we should be targeting here. The Pelicans are ranked 21st or worse in terms of fantasy points allowed to PG’s, PF’s, and Centers. Gerald Henderson also makes a nice punt option with a cheap price tag on both DS and SS.

Kemba Walker – Walker is really hitting his stride at this point in the season. He is coming off of a huge 56 FP performance the other night against the Pistons and he should be able to keep it going tonight against Roberts and the Pelicans. Walker has great home splits this season and makes a great play at his price point on most sites.

Al Jefferson – If you are spending at Center tonight, you have three great options. Jefferson, Noah, and Drummond are all available at a similar price point and they all have terrific matchups tonight. Of the three, I think Jefferson gets the nod as the top play. He has been on fire over the past few weeks and I don’t see Ajinca and Stiemsma being able to slow him down.

New York at Orlando

Vegas Line – New York -2, 195 Over/Under
New York Proj. Starters – Felton-Prigioni-Smith-Anthony-Chandler
Orlando Proj. Starters – Nelson-Afflalo-Harris-Davis-Vucevic

New York

The Knicks and Magic are two teams that don’t mind getting into a fast-paced game when the situation is right. Vegas has the total set at 195 points which is pretty high considering the pace at which these two teams typically play at. The Knicks will be without Iman Shumpert tonight which means J.R. Smith will slide into the starting lineup. Shumpert’s absence also gives a nice fantasy boost to Tim Hardaway Jr. who has played well in his last two games.

The Knicks starting five all have solid matchups tonight. The Magic have really struggled defensively this season. They are giving up 101 PPG to their opponents and are ranked below average in terms of fantasy points allowed to all five positions. I think J.R. Smith makes a nice play. Tyson Chandler makes a solid punt option at Center. Raymond Felton could find some success against Jameer who has struggled with quick PG’s this season.

Carmelo Anthony – Carmelo may be the top overall fantasy option tonight with no LeBron, Love, or Durant on the schedule. If you are paying up for a superstar tonight, Melo might be the route to take. With Shumpert out, Melo could pick up a few extra minutes in what is expected to be a high scoring game. For the price, I might be tempted to go with one of the top Centers today, but Melo has as much upside as anyone available tonight.

Orlando

The Magic have bought out the contract of Glen Davis. This has really flown under the fantasy radar and it could really make a big impact fantasy wise for the Magic. This solidifies minutes for Tobias Harris at the PF position, it opens up minutes for the surprising Kyle O’Quinn, and it may let Victor Oladipo back into the starting lineup. Look for an update later on in the day as to who the Magic will roll out as their starting five.

As far as the matchups go, you really want to stay away from the bigs against the Knicks. They have been solid down low all season long and are ranked 1st and 4th against PF’s and Centers this season. That means that Nikola Vucevic and Tobias Harris are probably best to avoid tonight. Jameer Nelson also has a tough matchup. The two plays that I am heavily considering here are Victor Oladipo (if he starts) and Arron Afflalo.

Arron Afflalo – This is the perfect time to buy low on Afflalo. With Davis gone, everyone slides over a position and he won’t have Oladipo fighting him for minutes off the bench. Afflalo’s price has really come down across the industry and he will have a very favorable matchup against either Prigioni or J.R. Look for him to top 25 FP’s tonight.

Dallas at Philadelphia

Vegas Line – Dallas -11.5, 214 Over/Under
Dallas Proj. Starters – Calderon-Ellis-Marion-Nowitzki-Dalembert
Philadelphia Proj. Starters – Carter-Williams-Anderson-Thompson-Young-Moultrie

Dallas

The Mavericks have a terrific matchup tonight against the Sixers, but this game does have blowout potential written all over it. The Sixers are all but giving up on their season and I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see the Mavericks come in and blow them out by 20 or more points. That said, even in a blowout, there are going to be plenty of fantasy points to go around in this one.

The Sixers are giving up a league worst 110 points per game. There are 4 fantasy options that I really like in this matchup. Jose Calderon has been awful in his past few games, but is dirt cheap on both DS & SS. It’s hard to pass up a starting PG against the Sixers at that price. Shawn Marion is another player that you may want to consider buying low on. He’s also been in a bad slump, but the Sixers are the cure for all things related to slumps.

Dirk Nowitzki – Dirk’s price is affordable on most sites tonight. He’s under $8k on both FD & DK. He could easily top 30 actual points in this matchup and if he can throw in some rebounds and assists, he could easily top the 40 FP mark. The only concern is that the Mavs get up big and coast the rest of the game, but I do love the upside that Dirk provides.

Monta Ellis – Monta is at his best in fast paced games and they don’t get any more fast paced than when you are facing the Sixers. Not only that, but he will likely be matched up with James Anderson who will not be able to stay in front of Monta. I think Monta has similar upside as Dirk tonight.

Philadelphia

The Sixers are in fire-sale mode after trading away both Evan Turner and Spencer Hawes. This is going to open up a ton of minutes and a ton of fantasy production for players like James Anderson, Tony Wroten, and Thaddeus Young. This should be a fast-paced game tonight and with their new acquisitions likely to get limited playing time at best, this could be a night to run a little Sixers’ mini-stack out there. Michael Carter-Williams, James Anderson, Byron Mullens, and Tony Wroten are all in play tonight. UPDATE: It doesn’t look like Danny Granger will be available tonight and Byron Mullen’s status is still uncertain.

Thaddeus Young – My favorite play of the bunch is Mr. Thad. I like his price on every site across the industry and will be using him heavily in ALL of my lineups. With Turner and Hawes both gone, Young becomes the Sixers’ best offensive weapon. He should play close to 40 minutes tonight too. If you factor in price, I think Thad is the top overall play tonight.

Cleveland at Toronto

Vegas Line – Toronto -7.5, 196 Over/Under
Cleveland Proj. Starters – Irving-Jack-Deng-Thompson-Hawes
Toronto Proj. Starters – Lowry-Derozan-Ross-Patterson-Valanciunas

Cleveland

The Cavs and Raptors game has a pretty high total tonight, but I don’t love the matchup for the Cavs. The Raptors are allowing the 4th fewest PPG to opponents at only 96. That said, injuries to the Cavs might open up a few fantasy plays tonight. The Cavs will be without Anderson Varejao, Dion Waiters, and C.J. Miles tonight.

The Cavs will likely have newly acquired Spencer Hawes available, but I don’t he will see a ton of playing time in his first game with the team. Kyrie Irving is not a player that I will be targeting tonight. He has awful road splits this season and has an extremely tough matchup against Lowry who has shut down opposing PG’s all season long. Tristan Thompson is worth a look though, he’s been playing well with Varejao out and the Raptors struggle against PF’s when Patterson starts at PF’s.

Jarrett Jack – Jack is one of those plays that will likely fly under the radar tonight. He’s been very quiet as a starter this season, but is coming off of a 33 FP game the other night in the absence of Waiters and Miles. Jack will likely get some good run again tonight and makes a great punt option at PG/SG on sites where he is still close to minimum salary.

Luol Deng – Waiters and Miles being out also gives Deng a slight fantasy boost as he should pick up a little extra playing time. Deng’s price is depressed across the industry and he has a decent matchup against the Raptors who are ranked 23rd against opposing SF’s over the last 15 days.

Toronto

The Raptors have a solid matchup tonight against the Cavs who are giving up 101 PPG to their opponents. The Raptors have really made an effort to push the pace in recent weeks which is why the total is higher than you might expect. With all four of the Raptors’ big men healthy, I think it’s best to just avoid them all. Even though Patrick Patterson and Jonas Valanciunas are starting, they have two solid backups just waiting to take away their playing time. The two best options here are the very talented backcourt combination of the Raptors.

Kyle Lowry – Kyrie and the Cavs have struggled to defend PG’s all season long. They have given up the 3rd most FP’s of any team in the NBA to PG’s and Lowry should be able to exploit that tonight. Lowry is playing his best basketball of the season right now and should be able to fill up the stat sheet again tonight.

DeMar DeRozan – DeMar is typically around the same price as Lowry and while I think Lowry has the higher ceiling, I think DeRozan has the higher floor. DeRozan has been very consistent this season and I love his matchup against the much smaller Jack. He can pull up and shoot over him anytime that he wants. I think DeRozan should be able to top 25 actual points in this one.

Atlanta at Detroit

Vegas Line – Detroit -4, 210 Over/Under
Atlanta Proj. Starters – Teague-Korver-Carroll-Millsap-Brand
Detroit Proj. Starters – Jennings-Singler-Smith-Monroe-Drummond

Atlanta

The Hawks and Pistons total is set at 210 points which is one of the highest totals of the night. The Pistons are giving up 103 points per game and both of these teams like to push the pace. This is one of my favorite games to target this evening. There are a few injuries that we need to note on the Hawks. Gustavo Ayon will miss tonight’s game and both DeMarre Carroll and Jeff Teague are listed as game-time decisions.

With Ayon out, Elton Brand will draw another start, he found the fountain of youth in his last game with 33 FP’s, but he has a much tougher matchup tonight against Drummond. Lou Williams and Shelvin Mack would both see a nice boost in playing time if either Carroll or Teague sit tonight’s game out. Check the injury news later in the day for an update on their availability.

Paul Millsap – Millsap is another one of my top plays tonight. He should see close to 40 minutes of playing time in what is expected to be one of the highest scoring games of the night. I like Millsap’s game because he is so versatile. He can hit outside shots, he can post up, and he can take his man off the dribble. He also fills up all areas of the stat sheet. I’m going out on a limb and predicting Millsap to drop a 40-burger on the Pistons tonight.

Kyle Korver – Korver has a terrific matchup against the Pistons who have been awful defensively this season. Korver is a player that can get hot when left open and that’s exactly what the Pistons tend to do defensively. His salary on both FD and DS is extremely cheap and I think he could easily reach 6x salary on FD and 3x salary on DS.

Detroit

The Pistons are also in a terrific spot tonight. The Hawks are a fast paced team and are giving up 101 points per game this season. Josh Smith will have the revenge factor on his side tonight, but in the two previous meetings against the Hawks, he has only managed to put up an average of 5 points and 6 rebounds. While I expect him to play better tonight, I think he is much better served as a GPP option. Kyle Singler continues to make a decent punt option on FD & DK, he doesn’t need to do much to cover his value at that price. Brandon Jennings is also worth a look, but I find myself liking other PG’s in his price range more, such as Lowry or Rondo.

Andre Drummond – I may have to go back on what I said earlier about Jefferson being the better play at Center tonight. If there is anyway to fit both of them in your lineup, I highly recommend it. The Hawks are without all three of their starting Centers and will have no one to keep Drummond off the glass. I could easily see him posting a 20/20 line tonight with a few blocks and steals to boot.