NBA Grind Down: Friday, February 27th
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down Article. Each day, we’ll break down all of the matchups with a focus on defense vs. position stats. The Grind Down shows you Vegas lines, defense stats and projected starting lineups for each and every game.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Use this article to help you gain a better understanding of the matchups for the coming week and build from there. We have everything you could possibly need on our Daily Research console for you to be a successful daily fantasy player!
We have a monster 14-game slate on tap for tonight. In an effort to save time, we will keep the team analysis to a minimum and focus on the suggested plays.
Note: Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s NFL Scoring System, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review.
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Cleveland at Indiana – 7:00 PM EST
- Vegas Line – Cleveland -4.5, 199 Over/Under
- Cleveland Proj. Starters – Dellavedova-Smith-James-Love-Mozgov
- Indiana Proj. Starters – Hill-Miles-Hill-West-Hibbert
| Cleveland | Indiana | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 199 |  | Vegas Total | 199 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -4.5 | Vegas Sprd | 4.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 101.8 | Team Proj. | 97.3 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 94.89 | Team Pace | 95.55 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Matthew Dellavedova | J.R. Smith | LeBron James | Kevin Love | Timofey Mozgov | Proj Starter | George Hill | C.J. Miles | Solomon Hill | David West | Roy Hibbert | |
| Opp. Season | 15 | 27 | 5 | 2 | 11 | Opp. Season | 9 | 21 | 25 | 17 | 14 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 20 | 21 | 9 | 29 | 14 | Opp. Last 7 | 11 | 3 | 8 | 9 | 5 | |
Cleveland
The Cavaliers picked up a huge win over the Warriors last night and are really starting to become the favorites to come out of the Eastern Conference. Tonight they head to Indiana to take on the Pacers in the second half of a back-to-back. The matchup isn’t one that we usually like to exploit, as the Pacers are a slow-paced team with a top ten defense.
Injury Note: Kyrie Irving is doubtful for tonight’s game. Matthew Dellavedova will likely start in his place.
Opponent Breakdown (Indiana)
Record: 23-34
Points Allowed Per Game: 97.3 (Rank: 7)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 11
Rebounding Differential Rank: 6
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Editor’s Note: LeBron James is out tonight.
LeBron James (FD: $10400, DK: $10300 / MPG: 36 / Usage Rate: 32.9)
With Kyrie Irving out, James is going to have to play more point-forward tonight against the Pacers. He is coming off of a huge 65 fantasy point outing against the Warriors last night. He draws a favorable matchup against the Pacers, who don’t have any elite perimeter defenders that will be able to stay in front of James or defend him in the post. He’s the premier play at small forward tonight, he’s just not the premier play overall.
Timofey Mozgov (FD: $5800, DK: $5300 / MPG: 26 / Usage Rate: 15.6)
Mozgov has been very consistent recently, scoring at least 23 fantasy points in 10 of his last 11 games. His price is reasonable across the industry and he should see minutes in the upper 20’s tonight. He’s not my favorite center on the board by any means, but could be an interesting contrarian play if you are looking to differentiate your lineups tonight.
Indiana
The Pacers draw a very tough matchup against the red-hot Cavaliers. The Cavaliers defense continues to improve, as they are now ranked 11th in points per game and 8th in rebounding differential this season. Even if the Pacers are able to keep this game competitive, it’s not exactly the favorable matchup that we are looking for.
Opponent Breakdown (Cleveland)
Record: 37-22
Points Allowed Per Game: 98.7 (Rank: 11)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 21
Rebounding Differential Rank: 8
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Rodney Stuckey (FD: $5000, DK: $4800 / MPG: 26 / Usage Rate: 22.8)
While I don’t love the Pacers tonight, Stuckey is in play thanks to his recent hot streak. He has embraced his role off the bench and it has really showed in his recent production. Over his last five games, he is averaging over 28 fantasy points per contest. He draws a favorable matchup against the Cavaliers, who have allowed the tenth-most fantasy points to opposing shooting guards this season.
Washington at Philadelphia – 7:00 PM EST
- Vegas Line – Washington -8.5, 194.5 Over/Under
- Washington Proj. Starters – Wall-Temple-Pierce-Hilario-Gortat
- Philadelphia Proj. Starters – Canaan-Covington-Mbah a Moute-Noel-Sims
| Washington | Philadelphia | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 194.5 |  | Vegas Total | 194.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -8.5 | Vegas Sprd | 8.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 101.5 | Team Proj. | 93.0 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 95.97 | Team Pace | 98.11 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | John Wall | Garrett Temple | Paul Pierce | Nene Hilario | Marcin Gortat | Proj Starter | Isaiah Canaan | Robert Covington | Luc Mbah a Moute | Nerlens Noel | Henry Sims | |
| Opp. Season | 23 | 29 | 24 | 29 | 30 | Opp. Season | 10 | 9 | 9 | 4 | 3 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 15 | 23 | 12 | 25 | 23 | Opp. Last 7 | 29 | 25 | 19 | 22 | 8 | |
Washington
The Wizards head to Philadelphia to take on the hapless Sixers. While the matchup looks great on paper, the Sixers have had a tough time keeping games competitive recently. The Wizards are 8.5-point favorites tonight in a game that could easily be over by the end of the third quarter. With so many other options available tonight, I will be avoiding all Wizards in cash games.
Opponent Breakdown (Philadelphia)
Record: 12-45
Points Allowed Per Game: 101.1 (Rank: 23)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 14
Rebounding Differential Rank: 30
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
John Wall (FD: $9100, DK: $8600 / MPG: 36 / Usage Rate: 24.9)
Wall may not be on my radar in cash games, but he does offer great upside as a tournament play. If the Sixers are somehow able to keep this game close, Wall could put up a fantastic outing. His price is down across the industry and he draws a terrific matchup against a Sixers’ team that has allowed the eighth-most fantasy points to opposing point guards this season.
Marcin Gortat (FD: $5500, DK: $5200 / MPG: 29 / Usage Rate: 18.1)
Gortat has finally turned the corner, after struggling during the first half of the season. Over his last three games, he has averaged 34 fantasy points per game. His price has yet to reflect this recent level of production, giving us one more buy-low opportunity on the Polish Hammer. He has a good chance to post a double-double here, as the Sixers are ranked dead last in rebounding differential.
Philadelphia
The Sixers have nothing to play for at this point. They also draw a tough matchup against the Wizards, who are ranked 10th in points allowed per game and fourth in rebounding differential. The Wizards have had some leaks defensively over the last couple of weeks, but it’s hard to justify taking any of the Sixers tonight, given the wealth of other options on a 14-game slate.
Opponent Breakdown (Washington)
Record: 33-25
Points Allowed Per Game: 98.3 (Rank: 10)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 10
Rebounding Differential Rank: 4
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
None
Orlando at Atlanta – 7:30 PM EST
- Vegas Line – Atlanta -11, 196 Over/Under
- Orlando Proj. Starters – Payton-Oladipo-Harris-Frye-Vucevic
- Atlanta Proj. Starters – Teague-Korver-Carroll-Millsap-Horford
| Orlando | Atlanta | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 196 |  | Vegas Total | 196 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 11.0 | Vegas Sprd | -11.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 92.5 | Team Proj. | 103.5 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 95.76 | Team Pace | 96.15 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Elfrid Payton | Victor Oladipo | Tobias Harris | Channing Frye | Nikola Vucevic | Proj Starter | Jeff Teague | Kyle Korver | DeMarre Carroll | Paul Millsap | Al Horford | |
| Opp. Season | 17 | 14 | 12 | 14 | 6 | Opp. Season | 25 | 5 | 29 | 24 | 26 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 13 | 27 | 1 | 5 | 19 | Opp. Last 7 | 1 | 10 | 21 | 6 | 6 | |
Orlando
The Magic have lost six of their last ten games and now have to head to Atlanta to take on the team with the best record in the Eastern Conference. The Magic are listed as 11-point underdogs tonight against the Hawks, who boast one of the best defenses in the entire NBA. On the season, the Hawks have held their opponents to the third-fewest points per game.
Opponent Breakdown (Atlanta)
Record: 45-12
Points Allowed Per Game: 96.6 (Rank: 3)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 6
Rebounding Differential Rank: 27
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Victor Oladipo (FD: $6900, DK: $6800 / MPG: 34 / Usage Rate: 24.6)
If you absolutely have to have some exposure to the Magic tonight, Oladipo is the preferred play. He has a very high usage rate and he actually draws a decent matchup against Kyle Korver, who is not an elite defender. Oladipo has scored at least 30 fantasy points in five of his last nine games. Use him as a high-ceiling tournament option tonight.
Atlanta
The Hawks have stumbled a bit since the All-Star break, but they have still won six of their last ten games. They also have an eight game advantage over the second seed in the Eastern Conference. The Hawks should continue to roll tonight in an easy matchup against the Magic, who are ranked 24th in points allowed and 26th in rebounding differential this season. The biggest concern here is a potential blowout.
Opponent Breakdown (Orlando)
Record: 19-40
Points Allowed Per Game: 101.2 (Rank: 24)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 23
Rebounding Differential Rank: 26
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Paul Millsap (FD: $7500, DK: $7800 / MPG: 33 / Usage Rate: 23.4)
Millsap has both a depressed price and a favorable matchup tonight, both of which bode well for his fantasy outlook. The only reason that he’s not an elite play is the potential blowout. It also doesn’t help that the power forward position is very deep tonight. All that said, Millsap is in a nice spot against the Magic, who are ranked 24th against power forwards this season.
DeMarre Carroll (FD: $5400, DK: $4900 / MPG: 32 / Usage Rate: 15.9)
The 14-game slate has helped a little, but the small forward position is still the thinnest position tonight. Carroll is a solid mid-range option, as he has averaged 25.6 fantasy points per game over his last five. He also draws a favorable matchup, as the Magic have allowed the second-most fantasy points to opposing small forwards this season.
Charlotte at Boston – 7:30 PM EST
- Vegas Line – Boston -2, 197.5 Over/Under
- Charlotte Proj. Starters – Williams-Henderson-Kidd-Gilchrist-Williams-Jefferson
- Boston Proj. Starters – Smart-Bradley-Turner-Bass-Zeller
| Charlotte | Boston | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 197.5 |  | Vegas Total | 197.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 2.0 | Vegas Sprd | -2.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 97.8 | Team Proj. | 99.8 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 95.22 | Team Pace | 98.81 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Mo Williams | Gerald Henderson | Michael Kidd-Gilchrist | Marvin Williams | Al Jefferson | Proj Starter | Marcus Smart | Avery Bradley | Evan Turner | Brandon Bass | Tyler Zeller | |
| Opp. Season | 18 | 2 | 22 | 27 | 23 | Opp. Season | 6 | 19 | 2 | 19 | 5 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 10 | 4 | 28 | 13 | 29 | Opp. Last 7 | 21 | 7 | 2 | 28 | 15 | |
Charlotte
The Hornets are currently tied for the eighth and final spot in the Eastern Conference playoffs. If I had to choose one team to claim that final spot, it would be the Hornets, as they are still trying to win basketball games. They are listed as two-point underdogs tonight against the Celtics in Boston. This is a very favorable matchup to exploit, as the Celtics have allowed the sixth-most points per game this season.
Opponent Breakdown (Boston)
Record: 22-33
Points Allowed Per Game: 102.7 (Rank: 25)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 15
Rebounding Differential Rank: 16
Elite Plays
Mo Williams (FD: $5500, DK: $6100 / MPG: 28 / Usage Rate: 22.9)
Williams has fit in nicely with his new team. In his first three starts with the Hornets, he has averaged 33.4 fantasy points per contest. He has taken over the majority of minutes at point guard and should see close to 35 minutes of action tonight against the Celtics. While Avery Bradley and Marcus Smart are both capable defenders, the Celtics have still allowed the 13th-most fantasy points to opposing point guards this season.
Secondary Plays
Al Jefferson (FD: $8200, DK: $7500 / MPG: 31 / Usage Rate: 26.7)
Jefferson has quietly put together a nice stretch of games, averaging 35.5 fantasy points per game over his last ten. He is flying under the radar tonight and his price on DraftKings is sitting at a very playable $7,300. He also draws one of the best matchups on the board, as the Celtics’ frontcourt is both under-sized and under-manned.
Boston
The Celtics are also in the playoff picture in the Eastern Conference, but they are more concerned with rebuilding than they are with making the playoffs. They draw a tough matchup tonight against the Hornets, who play at a very slow pace. The Hornets have also held their opponents to the fifth-fewest points per game this season.
Opponent Breakdown (Charlotte)
Record: 23-32
Points Allowed Per Game: 96.8 (Rank: 5)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 7
Rebounding Differential Rank: 14
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Evan Turner (FD: $6100, DK: $5600 / MPG: 26 / Usage Rate: 19.4)
Turner messed around and got a triple-double against the Knicks. His minutes are trending upward and so is his production. Over his last six games, he has averaged 31.1 fantasy points in 34 minutes per contest. That’s great production from a player at his price point.
Brandon Bass (FD: $5400, DK: $5600 / MPG: 22 / Usage Rate: 20.8)
There hasn’t been an official update on Kelly Olynyk, but they Celtics made it sound like he was still a week away. If he is forced to miss tonight’s game, Bass would again see a ton of minutes in the frontcourt. His minutes were down last game, as the Celtics played small-ball against the Knicks, but his minutes should go back up against the big frontcourt of the Hornets.
New York at Detroit – 7:30 PM EST
- Vegas Line – Detroit -13.5, 194 Over/Under
- New York Proj. Starters – Galloway-Shved-Hardaway-Smith-Amundson
- Detroit Proj. Starters – Jackson-Caldwell-Pope-Prince-Monroe-Drummond
| New York | Detroit | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 194 |  | Vegas Total | 194 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 13.5 | Vegas Sprd | -13.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 90.3 | Team Proj. | 103.8 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 93.06 | Team Pace | 95.66 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Langston Galloway | Alexey Shved | Tim Hardaway | Jason Smith | Louis Amundson | Proj Starter | Reggie Jackson | Kentavious Caldwell-Pope | Tayshaun Prince | Greg Monroe | Andre Drummond | |
| Opp. Season | 4 | 13 | 23 | 26 | 28 | Opp. Season | 26 | 22 | 3 | 6 | 22 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 15 | 25 | Opp. Last 7 | 25 | 14 | 29 | 21 | 2 | |
New York
The Knicks have all but given up on their season. While they have been an easy team to avoid for the last couple of weeks, there are a couple of decent options tonight. The Knicks are huge underdogs against the Pistons, but this is not a matchup that we need to go out of our way to avoid.
Injury Note: Jose Calderon is not expected to play tonight.
Opponent Breakdown (Detroit)
Record: 23-34
Points Allowed Per Game: 99.5 (Rank: 16)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 17
Rebounding Differential Rank: 8
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Langston Galloway (FD: $5300, DK: $5200 / MPG: 31 / Usage Rate: 19.6)
With Jose Calderon out, Galloway should draw the start at point guard. He should see an uptick in both minutes and usage, two things that we love to see in daily fantasy basketball. The Pistons have been stingy against point guards this season, but that wasn’t with Reggie Jackson as their starting point guard. Galloway’s increased role in the offense makes him a viable option tonight.
Tim Hardaway Jr. (FD: $4500, DK: $4100 / MPG: 24 / Usage Rate: 23.3)
Before you close out of this page because I’m recommending Hardaway, hear me out. With Jose Calderon out, he is going to see a nice boost in minutes. He should also have a bigger role in the offense and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him play some point guard tonight. His price is depressed across the industry and we have seen him post big outings in similar spots this season.
Detroit
The Pistons are another team that is fighting for that last playoff spot in the Eastern Conference. They have won six of their last ten games and should pick up an easy win tonight against the Knicks. They are 13.5-point favorites with their team total set at 104 points. The concern here isn’t the matchup, it’s the potential blowout. The starters may find themselves riding the bench for the entire fourth quarter.
Opponent Breakdown (New York)
Record: 10-46
Points Allowed Per Game: 100.7 (Rank: 21)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 28
Rebounding Differential Rank: 28
Elite Plays
Reggie Jackson (FD: $6100, DK: $6100 / MPG: 28 / Usage Rate: 22.9)
Jackson has fit in nicely with the Pistons. He is finally on a team where he is the starting point guard for the foreseeable future. Jackson has averaged 36 fantasy points per game in his first two starts with the team and based on his salary, he only needs to score around 30 fantasy points to meet value expectations tonight. That’s a feat that he may be able to accomplish in three quarters.
Secondary Plays
Greg Monroe (FD: $7600, DK: $7900 / MPG: 31 / Usage Rate: 23.7)
Monroe’s price is down on both FanDuel and DraftKings, thanks to his inconsistent play over the last couple of weeks. While I don’t want to pay up for Monroe in cash games, he does provide terrific upside as a tournament play. He should be able to dominate the paint against a Knicks’ team that is ranked 28th in rebounding differential this season.