NBA Grind Down: Friday, February 27th - Page Two
Golden State at Toronto – 7:30 PM EST
- Vegas Line – Even Spread, 213 Over/Under
- Golden State Proj. Starters – Curry-Thompson-Barnes-Green-Bogut
- Toronto Proj. Starters – Lowry-DeRozan-J.Johnson-A.Johnson-Valanciunas
| Golden State | Toronto | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 213 |  | Vegas Total | 213 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 0.0 | Vegas Sprd | 0.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 106.50 | Team Proj. | 106.50 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 101.09 | Team Pace | 95.93 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Stephen Curry | Klay Thompson | Harrison Barnes | Draymond Green | Andrew Bogut | Proj Starter | Kyle Lowry | DeMar DeRozan | James Johnson | Amir Johnson | Jonas Valanciunas | |
| Opp. Season | 19 | 10 | 20 | 7 | 10 | Opp. Season | 7 | 11 | 8 | 16 | 18 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 18 | 15 | 24 | 11 | 11 | Opp. Last 7 | 6 | 24 | 15 | 10 | 4 | |
Golden State
The Warriors were out-played and out-muscled by the Cavaliers last night. They did have an awful shooting night from the Splash Brothers, though. Look for the Warriors to bounce back tonight against the Raptors, who have struggled on the defensive end of the floor this season. The Raptors are ranked 19th in points allowed per game and 18th in rebounding differential.
Opponent Breakdown (Toronto)
Record: 37-20
Points Allowed Per Game: 100.3 (Rank: 19)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 16
Rebounding Differential Rank: 18
Elite Plays
Stephen Curry (FD: $10300, DK: $9800 / MPG: 33 / Usage Rate: 28.3)
Anytime you can target Curry at a price under $10,000, you have to at least consider him. Especially when it’s on DraftKings, as he is a frequent visitor to their bonus given out for three-pointers made. Curry draws a nice matchup against Kyle Lowry and he should see a few minutes more than his season average, as this game is expected to be competitive throughout. There are always a ton of options at point guard, but only Russell Westbrook has a higher ceiling than Curry tonight.
Secondary Plays
None
Toronto
The Raptors have lost five of their last ten games and are desperately trying to hold on to the second seed in the Eastern Conference. They have their hands full tonight, as they host the Warriors, who own the best record in the NBA. While the Warriors are ranked first in defensive efficiency, they are ranked 18th in points allowed per game. This should be a close, high-scoring game.
Opponent Breakdown (Golden State)
Record: 44-11
Points Allowed Per Game: 100 (Rank: 18)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 1
Rebounding Differential Rank: 15
Elite Plays
James Johnson (FD: $4100, DK: $4700 / MPG: 21 / Usage Rate: 16.3)
This is not a grind-it-out type of game. This should be played at a very fast pace with a ton of transition opportunities for both teams. That leads me to believe that Johnson will see big minutes tonight. I could be wrong, but he has averaged 31 minutes per game over his last three. He is extremely cheap and offers great upside at his price point.
Secondary Plays
DeMar DeRozan (FD: $6700, DK: $7000 / MPG: 33 / Usage Rate: 28.1)
DeRozan is in play once again. He’s not my favorite play at shooting guard, but he deserves consideration in what should be a high-scoring game against the Warriors. The one knock that I have on DeRozan tonight is his matchup. Klay Thompson has become one of the best perimeter defenders in the NBA.
Miami at New Orleans – 8:00 PM EST
- Vegas Line – Miami -1, 195 Over/Under
- Miami Proj. Starters – Dragic-Wade-Deng-Haslem-Whiteside
- New Orleans Proj. Starters – Evans-Gordon-Pondexter-Cunningham-Asik
| Miami | New Orleans | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 195 |  | Vegas Total | 195 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -1.00 | Vegas Sprd | 1.00 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 98 | Team Proj. | 97 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 92.28 | Team Pace | 94.05 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Goran Dragic | Dwyane Wade | Luol Deng | Udonis Haslem | Hassan Whiteside | Proj Starter | Tyreke Evans | Eric Gordon | Quincy Pondexter | Dante Cunningham | Omer Asik | |
| Opp. Season | 22 | 15 | 10 | 8 | 9 | Opp. Season | 12 | 8 | 4 | 5 | 7 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 9 | 17 | 3 | 1 | 24 | Opp. Last 7 | 7 | 20 | 4 | 17 | 12 | |
Miami
The Heat are playing at a much quicker pace now that Goran Dragic is their starting point guard. That’s great news for the fantasy appeal of both the Heat and of their opponents. The Heat are one-point underdogs tonight against the Pelicans in a game that features a total of 195 points. This is a mediocre matchup as a whole, but there are a couple of plays that stand out on the Heat tonight.
Opponent Breakdown (New Orleans)
Record: 30-27
Points Allowed Per Game: 99.4 (Rank: 15)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 26
Rebounding Differential Rank: 5
Elite Plays
Dwyane Wade (FD: $7200, DK: $6800 / MPG: 32 / Usage Rate: 34.1)
Now is the perfect time to buy low on Wade. His minutes and his production are both trending upward. Wade is coming off of a solid outing against the Magic, scoring 31 fantasy points in 37 minutes. His price is depressed across the industry and he basically only needs to score 35 fantasy points to reach value. That shouldn’t be too difficult for a guy that has one of the highest usage rates of any player in the NBA.
Secondary Plays
Hassan Whiteside (FD: $7600, DK: $7800 / MPG: 21 / Usage Rate: 20.7)
Once again, I love Whiteside for tournaments, but I’ll stick with Rudy Gobert in cash games. Whiteside has an incredibly high ceiling, but his minutes are a little too inconsistent for my liking. Plus, he has a knack of getting into early foul trouble. All of that said, I expect another big outing from Whiteside tonight, as he faces a Anthony Davis-less Pelicans’ frontcourt.
New Orleans
The Pelicans are still alive in the playoff picture in the Western Conference, but no one is expecting them to be any threat to the Thunder, who currently hold the eighth seed. The Pelicans play well at home though and have a good chance to pick up another win tonight. While the Heat have held their opponents to the fourth-fewest points per game this season, they are playing at a much quicker pace with Goran Dragic in the lineup.
Opponent Breakdown (Miami)
Record: 25-31
Points Allowed Per Game: 96.7 (Rank: 4)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 19
Rebounding Differential Rank: 22
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Tyreke Evans (FD: $8400, DK: $7900 / MPG: 35 / Usage Rate: 25.7)
Anthony Davis and Ryan Anderson are both out again tonight, which means we will see another night where Evans has an extremely high usage rate in this Pelicans’ offense. He has been under the weather, but says that he is close to 100%. He has triple-double type of upside and makes a terrific tournament option tonight. I do wish he was still listed as a shooting guard, though.
Eric Gordon (FD: $6300, DK: $5800 / MPG: 33 / Usage Rate: 19.4)
Gordon’s usage in the offense also goes up with Anthony Davis and Ryan Anderson out of the lineup. He has averaged 28.5 fantasy points in 39 minutes over his last three games. He draws a decent matchup against Dwayne Wade and the Heat. He’s a solid mid-range option at shooting guard tonight.
Minnesota at Chicago – 8:00 PM EST
- Vegas Line – Chicago -6, 195 Over/Under
- Minnesota Proj. Starters – Rubio-Martin-Wiggins-Garnett-Pekovic
- Chicago Proj. Starters – Brooks-Butler-Dunleavy-Gasol-Noah
| Minnesota | Chicago | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 195 |  | Vegas Total | 195 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 6 | Vegas Sprd | -6 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 94.5 | Team Proj. | 100.5 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 97.61 | Team Pace | 95.58 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Ricky Rubio | Kevin Martin | Andrew Wiggins | Kevin Garnett | Nikola Pekovic | Proj Starter | Aaron Brooks | Jimmy Butler | Mike Dunleavy | Taj Gibson | Joakim Noah | |
| Opp. Season | 13 | 3 | 18 | 20 | 13 | Opp. Season | 28 | 25 | 30 | 28 | 27 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 24 | 16 | 20 | 2 | 3 | Opp. Last 7 | 2 | 28 | 11 | 26 | 9 | |
Minnesota
The Wolves head to Chicago to take on the short-handed Bulls. They are still five-point underdogs in a game that features a total of 195 points. While the matchup may appear tough on paper, the Bulls are short-handed and I wouldn’t be surprised if it hurt their play on the defensive end of the floor.
Injury Note: Kevin Garnett is unsure if he is going to play tonight against the Bulls.
Opponent Breakdown (Chicago)
Record: 36-22
Points Allowed Per Game: 98.7 (Rank: 11)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 12
Rebounding Differential Rank: 6
Elite Plays
Nikola Pekovic (FD: $6500, DK: $6100 / MPG: 28 / Usage Rate: 22.9)
Pekovic has quietly averaged 33.6 fantasy points over his last six games. His price has yet to fully reflect his recent level of production and he makes for an intriguing play tonight against the Bulls. Noah typically likes to bully centers around, but he’ll have a tough time doing that against Pekovic. Big Pek should see close to 35 minutes tonight, with the potential for more if Kevin Garnett doesn’t play.
Secondary Plays
Andrew Wiggins (FD: $6700, DK: $6500 / MPG: 35 / Usage Rate: 21.6)
Wiggins has played at least 37 minutes in each of his last ten games. During that stretch, he has scored at least 26 fantasy points eight times. There are few players that you can count on to play that many minutes every night, regardless of the outcome of the game. Wiggins is a safe play at small forward tonight with decent upside in his matchup against Mike Dunleavy.
Chicago
The Bulls will be without Derrick Rose and Pau Gasol tonight, as they host the Wolves. The rest of the team sees a HUGE boost with those two out of the lineup, as they will have to make up for the lost production. The Bulls also draw one of the more favorable matchups on the schedule. The Wolves are a fast-paced team that has allowed the second-most points per game this season. Don’t be afraid to roster two or three Bulls tonight.
Opponent Breakdown (Minnesota)
Record: 13-43
Points Allowed Per Game: 105.8 (Rank: 29)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 30
Rebounding Differential Rank: 20
Elite Plays
Taj Gibson (FD: $5100, DK: $4300 / MPG: 29 / Usage Rate: 18)
With Pau Gasol out, Gibson becomes a must play in my eyes. Even with all of the other options at power forward, I will have 100% exposure to Gibson in my cash games. He will immediately step into the starting lineup and will likely be asked to play 35+ minutes. He should reach and exceed value with ease tonight against the Wolves, who are ranked 28th against power forwards this season.
Jimmy Butler (FD: $8800, DK: $7900 / MPG: 32 / Usage Rate: 21.5)
Butler is expensive on FanDuel, but he’s sitting at a very playable $7,900 on DraftKings. Butler was already going to see a boost with Derrick Rose out and now that Pau Gasol is out as well, he becomes the number one option offensively. The way I see it, Butler has a floor of around 35 fantasy points tonight, with a ceiling that is much, much higher.
Aaron Brooks (FD: $4500, DK: $4500 / MPG: 20 / Usage Rate: 25.7)
Brooks played well in his first start since Derrick Rose went down with his injury. He finished the game with 24 fantasy points in 28 minutes of action. He should see close to 30 minutes again tonight against a Wolves’ team that has struggled to contain opposing point guards. He should reach value easily, the only question is whether or not you want to use him for one of your point guard spots.
Secondary Plays
Joakim Noah (FD: $7000, DK: $6800 / MPG: 31 / Usage Rate: 14)
The only reason that I have Noah listed as a secondary play is because he is my fourth favorite option on the Bulls tonight. Even though the matchup is great, it’s risky to roster four Bulls in any league format. Noah should see a sizable boost with Pau Gasol out though and could see minutes in the upper 30’s tonight. The matchup is also in his favor, as the Wolves are ranked 27th against centers.
Brooklyn at Houston – 8:00 PM EST
- Vegas Line – Houston -6.5, 206.5 Over/Under
- Brooklyn Proj. Starters – Williams-Brown-Anderson-Johnson-Plumlee
- Houston Proj. Starters – Terry-Harden-Ariza-Jones-Motiejunas
| Brooklyn | Houston | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 206.5 |  | Vegas Total | 206.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 6.5 | Vegas Sprd | -6.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 100 | Team Proj. | 106.5 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 94.42 | Team Pace | 99.16 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Deron Williams | Markel Brown | Alan Anderson | Joe Johnson | Mason Plumlee | Proj Starter | Jason Terry | James Harden | Trevor Ariza | Terrence Jones | Donatas Motiejunas | |
| Opp. Season | 2 | 24 | 16 | 18 | 17 | Opp. Season | 16 | 26 | 7 | 25 | 12 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 16 | 6 | 27 | 7 | 17 | Opp. Last 7 | 8 | 2 | 22 | 16 | 27 | |
Brooklyn
The Nets have won five of their last ten games and are currently tied for the eighth and final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference. They are 6.5-point underdogs tonight against the Rockets. While the Rockets are still ranked third in defensive efficiency, their defense is not the same with Dwight Howard out of the lineup. The matchup is a decent one, there just aren’t any options that really stand out tonight on the Nets.
Opponent Breakdown (Houston)
Record: 39-18
Points Allowed Per Game: 99.7 (Rank: 17)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 3
Rebounding Differential Rank: 10
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Markel Brown (FD: $3900, DK: $3800 / MPG: 9 / Usage Rate: 18.6)
Brown has started the last two games for the Nets and he has performed well, averaging 28 fantasy points in 36 minutes per game. His minutes are far from secure, but he does offer decent upside for a player that is close to minimum-salary. He’s a decent value play if you need some salary cap relief at shooting guard.
Houston
The biggest question surrounding the Rockets tonight is the availability of James Harden. He went through shootaround, but is still listed as questionable for tonight’s game. Patrick Beverley is in the same boat, as he also went through shootaround, but is being listed as questionable. If I had to guess, I would say that Harden will play tonight. Hopefully, we will have an update before the first set of games tips off. If Harden is forced to sit, the rest of the team would see a sizable fantasy boost.
Opponent Breakdown (Brooklyn)
Record: 23-32
Points Allowed Per Game: 99.3 (Rank: 14)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 21
Rebounding Differential Rank: 25
Elite Plays
Terrence Jones (FD: $6300, DK: $6500 / MPG: 25 / Usage Rate: 18.6)
Jones has been terrific since being inserted into the starting lineup. After scoring 38 fantasy points against the Wolves, he backed it up with a 34-fantasy point outing against the Clippers. His price has come up on both FanDuel and DraftKings, but it’s still too cheap given his recent production. He should be targeted in all leagues tonight, especially if James Harden is ruled out.
Secondary Plays
Trevor Ariza (FD: $5700, DK: $5900 / MPG: 36 / Usage Rate: 16.9)
Ariza has played well recently, averaging 27.9 fantasy points over his last ten games. During that stretch, he has scored at least 22 fantasy points nine times. He draws a favorable matchup against the Nets and he may be asked to play a bigger role in the offense if James Harden is limited or unable to play tonight. Ariza is a borderline elite play against the Nets.
L.A. Clippers at Memphis – 8:00 PM EST
- Vegas Line – Memphis -5, 198 Over/Under
- L.A. Clippers Proj. Starters – Paul-Redick-Barnes-Hawes-Jordan
- Memphis Proj. Starters – Conley-Lee-Green-Randolph-Gasol
| L.A. Clippers | Memphis | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 198 |  | Vegas Total | 198 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 5.0 | Vegas Sprd | -5.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 96.5 | Team Proj. | 101.5 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 96.76 | Team Pace | 94.26 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Chris Paul | J.J. Redick | Matt Barnes | Spencer Hawes | DeAndre Jordan | Proj Starter | Mike Conley | Courtney Lee | Jeff Green | Zach Randolph | Marc Gasol | |
| Opp. Season | 5 | 7 | 17 | 3 | 1 | Opp. Season | 3 | 16 | 28 | 15 | 16 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 26 | 1 | 23 | 3 | 10 | Opp. Last 7 | 19 | 11 | 26 | 20 | 26 | |
L.A. Clippers
These two teams squared off on Monday night in Los Angeles and will do it again tonight in Memphis. For the Clippers, this is an awful matchup. The Grizzlies are a slow-paced team that has held their opponents to the fewest points per game this season. While DeAndre Jordan has been on a tear recently, it’s hard to justify paying up for him in a bad matchup, especially with all of the other viable options at center.
Opponent Breakdown (Memphis)
Record: 41-15
Points Allowed Per Game: 95.6 (Rank: 1)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 5
Rebounding Differential Rank: 13
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Chris Paul (FD: $10200, DK: $10100 / MPG: 35 / Usage Rate: 22.8)
Mike Conley and the Grizzlies own the best defense in the NBA (in terms of points allowed), but Paul’s increased role with Blake Griffin out puts him in play tonight. He will likely have a very low level of ownership, making him a solid contrarian play in tournaments. Paul played well against the Grizzlies on Monday night, posting a stat line of 30 points, 4 rebounds, and 12 assists.
Memphis
Opponent Breakdown (L.A. Clippers)
Record: 37-21
Points Allowed Per Game: 100.9 (Rank: 22)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 18
Rebounding Differential Rank: 16
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Marc Gasol (FD: $7800, DK: $7300 / MPG: 34 / Usage Rate: 24.7)
Gasol is in play on sites that allow you to roster more than one center. He is favorably priced on DraftKings and would only need around 36 fantasy points to reach value. He’s certainly capable of that, especially against the Clippers, who he has had a great track record against over the last few years.