NBA Grind Down: Friday, February 27th - Page Three
Utah at Denver – 9:00 PM EST
- Vegas Line – Utah -2.5, 193.5 Over/Under
- Utah Proj. Starters – Exum-Inges-Hayward-Favors-Gobert
- Denver Proj. Starters – Lawson-Gallinari-Chandler-Faried-Hickson
| Utah | Denver | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 193.5 |  | Vegas Total | 193.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -2.5 | Vegas Sprd | 2.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 98.00 | Team Proj. | 95.50 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 92.84 | Team Pace | 98.47 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Dante Exum | Joe Ingles | Gordon Hayward | Derrick Favors | Rudy Gobert | Proj Starter | Ty Lawson | Danilo Gallinari | Wilson Chandler | Kenneth Faried | J.J. Hickson | |
| Opp. Season | 20 | 28 | 26 | 30 | 24 | Opp. Season | 8 | 17 | 11 | 13 | 2 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 28 | 22 | 18 | 27 | 21 | Opp. Last 7 | 3 | 8 | 14 | 18 | 1 | |
Utah
The Jazz draw one of the more favorable matchups on the schedule tonight. The Nuggets have all but given up on their coach, and it has really shown on the defensive end of the floor. They have allowed the fifth-most points per game this season. Vegas has the Jazz projected to score 98 points tonight, which is considerably higher than their season average.
Opponent Breakdown (Denver)
Record: 20-37
Points Allowed Per Game: 104.3 (Rank: 26)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 24
Rebounding Differential Rank: 18
Elite Plays
Gordon Hayward (FD: $7900, DK: $7900 / MPG: 35 / Usage Rate: 25.7)
Hayward is coming off of a poor performance against the Lakers, but he should bounce back nicely tonight against the Nuggets, who don’t have an elite shot blocker to defend the rim. Hayward should be able to attack the basket at will, and he’s favorably priced at $7,900 on both FanDuel and DraftKings.
Rudy Gobert (FD: $6400, DK: $6500 / MPG: 22 / Usage Rate: 13.5)
You know it’s coming, GOBERT OR GO HOME! As hard as I tried to convince everyone that Gobert was the play at center on Wednesday, he was still only 20-30% owned in cash games. Once again, he is my top play at the position. The Nuggets have struggled to contain opposing big men all season long and are currently short-handed down low, as Darrell Arthur and Jusuf Nurkic are both expected to miss tonight’s game.
Secondary Plays
Derrick Favors (FD: $7500, DK: $7400 / MPG: 31 / Usage Rate: 23.1)
Favors has everything in his favor tonight. His minutes are trending upward, he draws a premier matchup against the Nuggets, and he is reasonably priced. The only reason he is listed as a secondary option is the fact that I still have him ranked #4 in my power forward rankings. Terrence Jones, Taj Gibson, and J.J. Hickson are all better plays when you factor in salaries.
Denver
The Nuggets have lost nine of their last ten games. It comes as no surprise that they are underdogs tonight against the Jazz at home. This game is expected to be competitive though, as the Nuggets are only 2.5-point underdogs. Darrell Arthur and Jusuf Nurkic are both expected to miss tonight’s game, which means there will be plenty of minutes for both Kenneth Faried and J.J. Hickson.
Opponent Breakdown (Utah)
Record: 21-35
Points Allowed Per Game: 97.5 (Rank: 8)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 24
Rebounding Differential Rank: 3
Elite Plays
J.J. Hickson (FD: $3700, DK: $3200 / MPG: 19 / Usage Rate: 20.3)
Jusuf Nurkic and Darrell Arthur are both expected to miss tonight’s game against the Jazz, which means Hickson should draw the start and log heavy minutes. He is arguably the top value play on the board, as he only needs to score around 18 fantasy points to reach value. He has played well as a starter this season and should push for 30+ minutes tonight. It’s going to be hard to pass him up at a salary that is close to the bare minimum.
Secondary Plays
Kenneth Faried (FD: $5900, DK: $5200 / MPG: 27 / Usage Rate: 19.3)
What is rule #1 in daily fantasy basketball? Don’t use Kenneth Faried in cash games! The Nuggets seem to have a personal vendetta against Faried, which makes it hard to trust him in cash games. He should log heavy minutes tonight against the Jazz, but is best suited as a tournament play.
Danilo Gallinari (FD: $5100, DK: $5500 / MPG: 20 / Usage Rate: 20.6)
I would love to roster Gallinari if he was still in the $3-4K range. Unfortunately, his price is over the $5,000 mark on both FanDuel and DraftKings, which means he needs at least 25 fantasy points to reach value. He’s certainly capable of it, but his matchup against the slow-paced Jazz is average at best.
San Antonio at Sacramento – 10:00 PM EST
- Vegas Line – San Antonio -4.5, 199.5 Over/Under
- San Antonio Proj. Starters – Parker-Green-Leonard-Duncan-Baynes
- Sacramento Proj. Starters – McCallum-McLemore-Gay-Thompson-Hollins
| San Antonio | Sacramento | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 199.5 |  | Vegas Total | 199.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -4.50 | Vegas Sprd | 4.50 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 102 | Team Proj. | 97.5 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 95.51 | Team Pace | 97.53 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Tony Parker | Danny Green | Kawhi Leonard | Tim Duncan | Aron Baynes | Proj Starter | Ray McCallum | Ben McLemore | Rudy Gay | Jason Thompson | Ryan Hollins | |
| Opp. Season | 29 | 30 | 6 | 21 | 29 | Opp. Season | 11 | 1 | 1 | 23 | 19 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 23 | 29 | 7 | 14 | 28 | Opp. Last 7 | 27 | 26 | 17 | 24 | 18 | |
San Antonio
The Spurs are looking to end a four-game skid, as they travel to Sacramento to take on the Kings. They are listed as 4.5-point favorites in a game that features a total of 199.5 points. While the Kings do rebound the ball well, they do not play good defense. They have allowed the 5th-most points per game this season.
Opponent Breakdown (Sacramento)
Record: 20-35
Points Allowed Per Game: 104.3 (Rank: 26)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 27
Rebounding Differential Rank: 1
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Kawhi Leonard (FD: $7100, DK: $6700 / MPG: 31 / Usage Rate: 22.5)
Every once in a while, you will see something that is priced too cheap that you can’t help but buy. That’s the case with Leonard tonight, as his price point is lower than it has been in months. Leonard has been going through a shooting slump, but he is coming off of a strong game against the Blazers the other night.
Danny Green (FD: $5400, DK: $4000 / MPG: 30 / Usage Rate: 17.7)
Green is a DraftKings-specific play tonight. His price of $4,000 is just too cheap for what he brings to the table. Using DraftKings’ scoring, Green is averaging 25.8 fantasy points per game this season. Green should easily reach and exceed value tonight against a Kings’ team that is ranked dead last against shooting guards.
Sacramento
The Kings will be without DeMarcus Cousins and Darren Collison tonight. It’s going to be tough sledding for their offense tonight, as they face a Spurs’ defense that is ranked eighth in points allowed per game and tenth in rebounding differential this season. Rudy Gay should see a boost in usage tonight, but the matchup couldn’t possibly be any worse, as the Spurs are ranked first against small forwards this season.
Opponent Breakdown (San Antonio)
Record: 34-23
Points Allowed Per Game: 97.5 (Rank: 8)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 7
Rebounding Differential Rank: 10
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
None
Milwaukee at L.A. Lakers – 10:30 PM EST
- Vegas Line – Milwaukee -6, 195 Over/Under
- Milwaukee Proj. Starters – Carter-Williams-Middleton-Antetokounmpo-Ilyasova-Pachulia
- L.A. Lakers Proj. Starters – Clarkson-Ellington-Kelly-Boozer-Sacre
| Milwaukee | L.A. Lakers | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 195 |  | Vegas Total | 195 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -6 | Vegas Sprd | 6 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 100.5 | Team Proj. | 94.5 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 96.37 | Team Pace | 96.73 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Michael Carter-Williams | Khris Middleton | Giannis Antetokounmpo | Ersan Ilyasova | Zaza Pachulia | Proj Starter | Jordan Clarkson | Wayne Ellington | Ryan Kelly | Carlos Boozer | Robert Sacre | |
| Opp. Season | 30 | 20 | 19 | 12 | 25 | Opp. Season | 1 | 12 | 21 | 11 | 20 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 12 | 12 | 25 | 4 | 22 | Opp. Last 7 | 5 | 13 | 6 | 23 | 16 | |
Milwaukee
The Bucks draw a favorable matchup against the Lakers, who have allowed more points per game than any other team in the NBA this season. The problem with the Bucks is twofold. First, this game has the potential to turn into a rout. And second, the Bucks are a deep team with a very good bench. I will likely have no exposure to the Bucks in cash games.
Opponent Breakdown (L.A. Lakers)
Record: 15-41
Points Allowed Per Game: 106.3 (Rank: 30)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 29
Rebounding Differential Rank: 20
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Giannis Antetokounmpo (FD: $6400, DK: $7300 / MPG: 30 / Usage Rate: 19.6)
Antetokounmpo had a huge first quarter against the Sixers the other night. He finished the game with 30 fantasy points, which was the sixth time in the last ten games that he has reached that mark. He draws another terrific matchup tonight against the Lakers, but he’s best suited as a tournament play.
L.A. Lakers
The Lakers are looking for their third win in a row tonight. They have some tough sledding ahead of them though, as the Bucks are one of the best defensive teams in the NBA. Given the deep and inconsistent rotation of the Lakers, it’s safe to avoid them altogether tonight against the Bucks.
Opponent Breakdown (Milwaukee)
Record: 32-25
Points Allowed Per Game: 96.5 (Rank: 2)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 2
Rebounding Differential Rank: 23
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
None
Oklahoma City at Portland – 10:30 PM EST
- Vegas Line – Portland -5, 206.5 Over/Under
- Oklahoma City Proj. Starters – Westbrook-Roberson-Singler-Ibaka-Kanter
- Portland Proj. Starters – Lillard-Matthews-Batum-Aldridge-Lopez
| Oklahoma City | Portland | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 206.5 |  | Vegas Total | 206.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 5.0 | Vegas Sprd | -5.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 100.75 | Team Proj. | 105.75 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 97.54 | Team Pace | 96.42 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Russell Westbrook | Andre Roberson | Kyle Singler | Serge Ibaka | Enes Kanter | Proj Starter | Damian Lillard | Wesley Matthews | Nicolas Batum | LaMarcus Aldridge | Robin Lopez | |
| Opp. Season | 21 | 18 | 14 | 1 | 8 | Opp. Season | 27 | 4 | 15 | 22 | 4 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 14 | 18 | 16 | 19 | 20 | Opp. Last 7 | 22 | 9 | 13 | 12 | 13 | |
Oklahoma City
The final game of the night will be a battle between two playoff teams in the Western Conference. The Thunder will be playing in the tail end of a back-to-back, after losing to the Suns in overtime last night. Kevin Durant is not expected to play tonight, which means it will be another edition of the Late Night Show with Russell Westbrook.
Opponent Breakdown (Portland)
Record: 37-19
Points Allowed Per Game: 97.2 (Rank: 6)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 4
Rebounding Differential Rank: 12
Elite Plays
Russell Westbrook (FD: $11200, DK: $11200 / MPG: 33 / Usage Rate: 36.2)
At this point, you are taking a huge risk if you are considering fading Westbrook in cash games. Westbrook is coming off of back-to-back triple-doubles. With Kevin Durant out of the lineup, he is the most productive fantasy option of any player in the entire NBA. Westbrook’s price has come up, but there is enough value tonight that it’s fairly easy to fit him into your lineups. There’s no reason to think that he’s going to slow down against the Blazers tonight.
Secondary Plays
None – Serge Ibaka would typically be in play here, but with Taj Gibson, J.J. Hickson, and Terrence Jones all such strong plays, it’s hard to justify paying up for Ibaka against the Blazers.
Portland
The Blazers are 5-5 in their last ten games and need to pick it up if they want to hold on to the fourth seed in the Western Conference. They are listed as five-point favorites tonight against the Thunder. While the Thunder have been solid defensively this season, they have been one of the fastest-paced teams in the NBA over the last month of play. The quick pace should offset the Blazers’ tough matchup.
Opponent Breakdown (Oklahoma City)
Record: 32-26
Points Allowed Per Game: 98.8 (Rank: 13)
Defensive Efficiency Rank: 9
Rebounding Differential Rank: 2
Elite Plays
Damian Lillard (FD: $8300, DK: $7800 / MPG: 36 / Usage Rate: 26.5)
LaMarcus Aldridge would typically be in play, but again, there are so many options at power forward that I don’t find myself with any exposure to him. Lillard has been in a mini-slump recently, but tonight is a great opportunity for him to break out of it. He draws a favorable matchup against the uptempo Thunder, who have allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing point guards this season.
Secondary Plays
None