NBA Grind Down: Friday, February 28th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2014-02-28 21:35:32

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down Article. Each day, we’ll break down all of the matchups with a focus on defense vs. position stats. The Grind Down shows you Vegas lines, defense stats and projected starting lineups for each and every game.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Use this article to help you gain a better understanding of the matchups for the coming week and build from there. We have everything you could possibly need on our Daily Research console for you to be a successful daily fantasy player!

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Click ‘Stat Chart’ Buttons Below for Pop-Ups of Essential Game-Specific Statistics including Defense vs. Position and Pace

Utah at Cleveland

Vegas Line – Cleveland -3.5, 192.5 Over/Under
Utah Proj. Starters – Burke-Hayward-Jefferson-Williams-Favors
Cleveland Proj. Starters – Irving-Jack-Deng-Thompson-Hawes

Utah

We have a pretty small slate of games for a Friday, but I actually prefer a 7 game slate because there aren’t quite as many options and we can really try to nail each pick. The first game of the night features the Jazz and Cavs and Vegas seems to be giving no love to the Cavs. The Jazz are one of the worst road teams in the league and the Cavs are coming off of a huge win in OKC the other night.

The Jazz are in a favorable spot tonight. The Cavaliers are giving up 101.4 points per game, they play at a fairly fast pace, and are ranked 16th or worse at defending PG’s, SG’s, and SF’s in terms of fantasy points allowed. The Cavs have been pretty formidable down low though and I’m not sure I will be using Marvin Williams or Derrick Favors tonight. Richard Jefferson makes a very deep sleeper pick, but he has been consistently playing 30+ minutes.

Gordon Hayward – Hayward is as inconsistent as ever. I predicted him to have a big game against the Suns and he was one assist shy of a triple-double. The problem with Hayward is that he can’t seem to carry that over game to game. That said, I love his matchup tonight against the much smaller Jack and see him having another solid all-around game.

Trey Burke – Like most rookies, Burke has played much better at home that he has on the road. While that’s not promising for tonight, his matchup more than makes up for it. The Cavs are giving up the 3rd most FP’s to opposing PG’s this season and Burke has been on a tear since the All-Star break. I have a feeling his price is about to go up on most sites, so now is the perfect time to target him.

Cleveland

The Cavs are 3.5 point favorites tonight against a Jazz team that has really struggled defensively this season. Considering the fact that the Jazz only average 93 possessions per game, they have been very bad defensively as they have given up over 100 points per game to their opponents. The Cavs are going to be without Varejao, Waiters, and Miles again tonight so look for both Jarrett Jack and Spencer Hawes to benefit in their absence.

There are a lot of average fantasy options tonight on the Cavs. I don’t mind Luol Deng or Tristan Thompson, but neither really stand out and both haven’t overwhelmed us with their recent play. I like Spencer Hawes at Center, but I think tonight is the night to spend up on Center. Kyrie Irving looks like a solid play, but he has let us down in juicy matchups recently and his price is almost as much as Stephen Curry. While I don’t mind any of those plays, I think Jack is the only play that I will have a heavy dose of tonight.

Jarrett Jack – With Waiters and Miles out again tonight, Jack will continue to see extended playing time. He has topped 24 FP’s in back to back games and should be able to reach that mark again tonight. He is very cheap on both FD and DK and makes a great punt option on both sites.

Memphis at Oklahoma City

Vegas Line – Oklahoma City -5.5, 192 Over/Under
Memphis Proj. Starters – Conley-Lee-Prince-Randolph-Gasol
Oklahoma City Proj. Starters – Westbrook-Sefolosha-Durant-Ibaka-Adams

Memphis

The Grizzlies have been rather uncharacteristic in their last few games as they have scored over 100 points in 2 of their last 3 games. They hadn’t scored over 100 points in the entire previous month. Tonight’s matchup against the Thunder is a tough one and the Grizzlies aren’t going to win this game by out-running Westbrook and Durant. I expect them to get back to their slow pace of play tonight.

The Thunder have been pretty solid defensively over the last month (with the exception of the last 3 games) and have climbed the defensive rankings. Mike Conley has a nice matchup against Russell Westbrook, but Conley has been very quiet with his production lately and I’m finding other options I like better in his price range. Marc Gasol could make a nice play at Center. The Thunder are without Perkins and Adams just isn’t the same defender down low.

Zach Randolph – Randolph has played well against the Thunder over the last few seasons. He has a unique way of using his body to keep shot blockers at bay. He’s averaging 17 points and 11 rebounds in their first two meetings and I think we can expect similar numbers out of Z-Bo tonight. He makes a nice play tonight as his price is affordable on most sites.

Oklahoma City

There are very few rules that I follow to a T when it comes to DFS, but one of them is avoiding players that are facing the Memphis Grizzlies. The Grizzlies are one of the slowest paced teams in the league, they are holding their opponents to only 94.6 points per game, and they are near the top of the DvP rankings against every position on the floor. With Russell Westbrook back, the Thunder offense has had a hard time adjusting to his play. Steven Adams makes a decent value play, but I’ll be avoiding the other Thunder players tonight.

Golden State at New York

Vegas Line – Golden State -5, 201 Over/Under
Golden State Proj. Starters – Curry-Thompson-Iguodala-Lee-Bogut
New York Proj. Starters – Felton-Prigioni-Smith-Anthony-Chandler

Golden State

The Warriors face a Knicks team that is only giving up 99.9 points per game, but the Knicks defense has taken a turn for the worse over the last couple of weeks. The Warriors are projected to score 103 points tonight and should be well prepared for this one after they forgot to show up the other night in Chicago. David Lee is expected to be back in the starting lineup tonight and my guess is that he will see a full workload of minutes. This makes him a very interesting play against Melo and company.

The Knicks have been one of the best teams in the league at defending Centers this season, but Andrew Bogut is extremely cheap on both DK and SS tonight. Even in a tough matchup, he should be considered on those two sites. I think Andre Iguodala should be in for a nice bounce back game. He will likely be defended by J.R. Smith if the Knicks decide to play small ball again.

Stephen Curry – Curry is coming off of arguably his worst game of the season. The Warriors looked out of sync right from the beginning and Curry only managed to put up 11 FP’s in 28 minutes. I’m expecting a nice bounce back game from Curry and the Warriors tonight. Curry’s price is very affordable tonight on most sites; he’s only $9.1k on FD, $18k on DS, and $15.1k on SS and he is playing in the Garden where star players seem to love playing.

New York

The Knicks were competitive with the Heat for about 2 and a half quarters last night and then seemingly gave up. Last night’s game was very similar to the way the Knicks season has unfolded. They come into tonight’s game as 5 point underdogs at home. The good news for them is that the Warriors are a fast-paced team and that should help their fantasy value.

I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Knicks start Amar’e Stoudemire tonight in order to matchup with the Warriors, but check for an update closer to tip-off. If he does start, Amar’e makes a decent punt option at PF. Tyson Chandler has the best matchup on paper, but now that Andrew Bogut is back in the lineup, the Warriors should move up in the defensive rankings against Centers.

Carmelo Anthony – At this point, Melo is really the only reliable fantasy option on the Knicks and to say he is reliable is a bit of a stretch. He does provide great upside though and I’m not worried about the defense of Andre Iguodala. Melo has no problem scoring the ball. He’s one of the top fantasy options on the board tonight.

Chicago at Dallas

Vegas Line – Dallas -4.5, 191 Over/Under
Chicago Proj. Starters – Hinrich-Butler-Dunleavy-Boozer-Noah
Dallas Proj. Starters – Calderon-Ellis-Marion-Nowitzki-Dalembert

Chicago

This matchup favors the Bulls’ players a lot more than it does the Mavericks’ players. The reasoning is very simple. When a fast pace team meets up with a slow paced team, the pace is typically played somewhere in the middle which means the Bulls will see a few extra possessions than their season average and the Mavs will see a few less than their season average.

The Bulls should be at full strength tonight as Jimmy Butler was back in the lineup for their game the other night. I like his matchup against Monta Ellis and I always like his minute totals. D.J. Augustin makes an interesting play as well, he is really cheap on a couple of sites and makes for a nice sleeper in GPP’s.

Joakim Noah – Noah is on an incredible run right now. He has topped 39 FP’s in 7 of his last 8 games. Opponents can’t keep him off of the offensive glass and he’s record 5 or more assists in 5 of those 8 games. Noah has a solid matchup tonight against the Mavericks who are not a great rebounding team. In fact, they are the 3rd worst rebounding team in the league.

Dallas

The Mavericks are facing a Bulls team that plays at a slow pace and has a great defense. Two things that we do not like to see in daily fantasy basketball. The Bulls are only averaging 93 possessions per game this season, they are holding their opponents to 92.3 points per game, and they are ranked 8th or better in terms of fantasy points allowed to all five positions. My thought process is pretty simple. Why take a player with a bad matchup when there are so many other options out there with better matchups?

Charlotte at San Antonio

Vegas Line – San Antonio -8.5, 200 Over/Under
Charlotte Proj. Starters – Walker-Henderson-Kidd-Gilchrist-McRoberts-Jefferson
San Antonio Proj. Starters – Mills-Green-Leonard-Duncan-Splitter

Charlotte

The Bobcats have a tough matchup tonight against the Spurs. But the Spurs will be without Tony Parker which does help their chances of pulling off a tough road win. The Spurs are only giving up 98.1 points per game this season to their opponents which is the 6th lowest in the NBA. There aren’t many fantasy options that stand out here other than Al Jefferson and Kemba Walker. Jefferson’s price has decreased dramatically on a few sites and he makes a nice contrarian play at Center if you aren’t taking Pau or Noah.

Kemba Walker – Walker is averaging close to 40 FP’s per game since the All-Star break and has a great matchup against the Spurs who have given up the 6th most fantasy points to opposing PG’s this season. Walker is probably best served as a high upside GPP play though.

San Antonio

The Spurs are big favorites at home; shocker I know. They will be without Tony Parker, but everyone else is expected to be in the lineup. Looking at the DvP rankings of the Bobcats, the two positions to target are the PG and Center positions. I don’t love Tiago Splitter though, I think the Spurs may play a little smaller and give Duncan some time at Center. Kawhi Leonard looked good in his first game back and is pretty cheap across the industry.

Tim Duncan – Duncan has a tough matchup on paper as the Bobcats have been very good at defending PF’s this season. But when you look at his individual matchup, I have a hard time seeing Josh McRoberts defending Duncan down low and keeping him off the glass. Not only that, but Al Jefferson will likely spend some time on him as well and Jefferson has never been known as a good defender.

Patty Mills – Mills has really played well in Parker’s absence this season and he will get at least one more game handling the majority of the PG duties. Mills is in the $5k range on both FD and DK tonight and is one of my favorite GPP plays. He’s shown his ability to top 40 FP’s.