NBA Grind Down: Friday, February 7th - Page 2
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Brooklyn at Detroit
- Vegas Line – Detroit -1.5, Over/Under 204
- Brooklyn Proj. Starters – Williams-Livingston-Johnson-Pierce-Blatche
- Detroit Proj. Starters – Jennings-Singler-Smith-Monroe-Drummond
Brooklyn
The Nets are playing the second half of a back to back tonight and Jason Kidd has decided to sit Kevin Garnett for this game. While that doesn’t make a huge fantasy impact, it does open up a few minutes for guys like Andray Blatche and Mason Plumlee. The Nets have a nice matchup tonight against the Pistons who continue to falter on the defensive end. They are giving up an average of 103 points per game. The Nets are a tough team to predict lately though now that Deron Williams is back in the mix.
- Deron Williams – While I think Shaun Livingston makes a decent play here, Williams is really the only player that I will be targeting heavily tonight. He’s scored at least 26 FP’s in 7 of his last 8 games and finally looks like a reliable fantasy option. I like the matchup tonight against Jennings and the Pistons who have been inept at defending the position all season.
Detroit
The Pistons are a bit more difficult to predict tonight. If you only looked at the Vegas total and line, you would think that they are in a favorable position. On the other hand, if you only looked at the Nets pace of play (93) and the Nets recent DvP rankings, you would probably avoid the Pistons. I think the answer is somewhere in the middle. They have a decent matchup, but not a great one.
- Brandon Jennings – I still have a hard time putting Jennings in my cash games unless he is facing a team like the Lakers or Sixers. He has too many dud games for me to trust him. I do however, think that he makes a great GPP play. Deron Williams is not a great perimeter defender and the PG position is the one of the two positions that the Nets struggle with defensively.
- Andre Drummond – The Nets don’t have anyone that can keep Drummond off the glass with the exception of maybe Reggie Evans and he sees very limited minutes anyway. Drummond should dominate the paint on both ends of the floor tonight and I am going against the DvP rankings when I suggest that he will be one of the top scoring Centers tonight.
Denver at New York
- Vegas Line – Denver -1.5, 209 Over/Under
- Denver Proj. Starters – Lawson-Foye-Chandler-Faried-Hickson
- New York Proj. Starters – Felton-Prigioni-Smith-Anthony-Chandler
Denver
The Nuggets and Knicks are two teams that don’t mind pushing the tempo. The pace of the Knicks may suggest otherwise, but the Knicks have really made an effort to push the pace over the last few weeks. The Vegas total is another example of this. The total is set at 209 points which is the 2nd highest on the board tonight. Ty Lawson has a tough matchup, but something tells me that he will have a big game in the Garden tonight.
- Wilson Chandler – Chandler is facing his former team, is at his best in uptempo games, and is affordable across the industry. As long as he stays out of foul trouble, he should play close to 40 minutes tonight as he will be asked to defend Melo for a large part of the game. I think he is a very safe cash game play tonight.
New York
The Knicks have an excellent matchup against the Nuggets who are ranked 21st or worse against SG’s, SF’s, PF’s, and Centers in terms of fantasy points allowed. Tyson Chandler continues to make a great value play on sites like FD where his price is still under $5,500. The Nuggets will have a hard time keeping him off the glass tonight.
- Carmelo Anthony – If you are paying up for a superstar player tonight, Carmelo may be the guy to go with. He’s a little bit cheaper than Durant, Love, and Davis, but he has just as much upside and has an excellent matchup against the Nuggets who just so happen to be his former team. Melo loves playing at home in the garden and I’m expecting big things from him tonight.
Utah at Dallas
- Vegas Line – Dallas -9.5, Over/Under 206
- Utah Proj. Starters – Burke-Hayward-Jefferson-Williams-Kanter
- Dallas Proj. Starters – Calderon-Ellis-Marion-Nowitzki-Dalembert
Utah
This is a game that does have blowout potential. The Jazz have not been a good road team this season and have been quick to throw in the towel when they get down big early. The Mavs have been very average defensively this season, but there aren’t any matchups that really stand out to me in this one. The Jazz are expecting to have Derrick Favors and Jeremy Evans back for tonight’s game which hurts the value of both Marvin Williams and Enes Kanter. I like Gordon Hayward as a GPP play though, he has a high ceiling and a favorable price tag.
Dallas
The Mavericks are big favorites tonight, but you typically have to worry about a blowout affecting fantasy value on the team that is the underdog, not as much the favorite (as Ethan pointed out in his recent odds column). While I like the matchup for Dirk Nowitzki and Monta Ellis, I think they are both priced a bit too high tonight. With so many other options, I’ve found options that I like better in their price ranges.
Minnesota at New Orleans
- Vegas Line – EVEN LINE, 197 Over/Under
- Minnesota Proj. Starters – Rubio-Martin-Brewer-Love-Turiaf
- New Orleans Proj. Starters – Roberts-Gordon-Aminu-Davis-Ajinca
Minnesota
The Wolves will be without Nikola Pekovic tonight, but they will have Kevin Love back which helps bolster that front-court. The Pelicans have struggled to defend 3 positions this season. They are ranked 20th or worse against PG’s, PF’s, and Centers. Ronny Turiaf makes a decent punt play at Center, but Robert Sacre looks like a much better play in that price range. Kevin Martin is cheap on FD tonight and offers a nice option at a position that can be hard to fill.
- Kevin Love – I’m not too worried about Love’s injury. If he says that he is going to play, he is going to play and he’s going to give 100%. Love put up 51 FP’s against this Pelicans team over a week ago and should have similar success tonight.
- Ricky Rubio – Rubio struggles with consistency because he lacks the type of offensive game that most PG’s have. He does make a great GPP play tonight though. The Pelicans have really struggled to defend opposing PG’s with Jrue Holiday out of the lineup and Rubio should be able to force Brian Roberts into some turnovers.
New Orleans
The Pelicans have a favorable matchup. The Wolves average over 99 possessions per game so the Pelicans should see a few extra possessions tonight. When these two teams met a little while ago, it was a very low scoring game. The Pelicans were without Anthony Davis though and I expect both teams to find some success offensively. The Wolves have defended the Center position well this season, but have struggled against the other 4 positions on the floor.
- Anthony Davis – Davis vs. Love should be a very entertaining matchup tonight. They are two of the best four PF’s in the NBA and are two of the better rebounders in the league. I think Anthony Davis shows up to play tonight and has another big game.
Toronto at L.A.Clippers
- Vegas Line – L.A.Clippers -5.5, 204 Over/Under
- Toronto Proj. Starters – Lowry-Derozan-Ross-Johnson-Valanciunas
- L.A.Clippers Proj. Starters – Collison-Redick-Barnes-Griffin-Jordan
Toronto
The Raptors come into tonight’s game as 5.5 point underdogs, but they are facing a Clippers team that plays at a much faster pace than they do. That typically bodes well for the fantasy value of the slower paced team. The Clippers have defended PG’s extremely well this season, but Kyle Lowry is one of those players that seems to be matchup proof because he does so many things on the floor. Lowry put up 34 FP’s in his first meeting against the Clippers.
- DeMar DeRozan – DeMar has been one of my favorite cash game plays lately, especially on non-efficiency sites. He has been a lock for 30+ fantasy points almost every time that he steps onto the floor. I like his matchup tonight against the Clippers and think that he should easily top 30 FP’s once again.
L.A.Clippers
The Clippers have a tough matchup against the Raptors. However, in their first meeting both teams were awful defensively and both teams ended up scoring over 118 points. I expect this game to be much lower scoring. The Raptors have defended all positions well this season. Blake Griffin continues to dominate opponents and DeAndre Jordan continues to post incredible rebounding numbers, but I see them both as GPP options tonight.