NBA Grind Down: Friday, January 10th - Page 2
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Dallas at New Orleans
- Vegas Line – New Orleans -2, 201.5 Over/Under
- Dallas Proj. Starters – Calderon-Ellis-Marion-Nowitzki-Dalembert
- New Orleans Proj. Starters – Holiday-Evans-Aminu-Davis-Smith
Dallas
The Mavericks travel to New Orleans to take on the short-handed Pelicans tonight. The injury to Jrue Holiday has caused the line to move by 3 points and the Mavs are now 1 point favorites. The Pelicans have not really defended any position particularly well this season so everyone is in play on the Mavs. One injury note: Shawn Marion will not play again tonight so look for Vince Carter and Jae Crowder to see a small fantasy boost.
- Monta Ellis – I also like Dirk in this one, but his matchup against Davis doesn’t exactly inspire confidence. Monta on the other hand will be defended by Eric Gordon who is much more concerned about his performance on the other end of the floor. Monta makes a solid cash game play tonight.
New Orleans
Jrue Holiday is going to be out for the next month or so with a fracture in his leg. This means that the Pelicans will hand over the keys to their offense to Brian Roberts and Tyreke Evans. I think they both see a major fantasy boost and both are very much in play tonight. The Mavs haven’t defended any position well this season and there are a number of options here. Anthony Davis and Al-Farouq Aminu will both be used sparingly in my lineups, but Roberts and Evans get my nod as the top plays.
- Brian Roberts – Roberts is close to minimum salary across the industry and immediately becomes a top value play with Jrue out. I expect him to see around 30 minutes tonight and easily cover his value.
- Tyreke Evans – Evans has really played well over the last month or so and now has a big opportunity to take over as the playmaker of this offense. His price varies across the board, but he has a great chance of topping 30 FP’s tonight.
Miami at Brooklyn
- Vegas Line – No Lines Set for This Game Yet
- Miami Proj. Starters – Cole-Wade-James-Battier-Bosh
- Brooklyn Proj. Starters – Livingston-Anderson-Johnson-Pierce-Garnett
Miami
The Heat are coming off of a bad loss to the Knicks last night and now get to take on the other New York team in the Nets who have surprisingly won 4 straight. The Heat are only 5 point favorites here which means Vegas has some confidence in this new look Nets team. By new look, I mean they are actually trying. The fantasy value of the Heat players is going to depend on the availability of both Mario Chalmers and Dwyane Wade. I think LeBron James is in play either way, but both Norris Cole and Ray Allen could make interesting plays depending on the health of Chalmers and Wade.
Brooklyn
The Nets have really been playing some solid basketball lately and the absence of D-Will has led them to start playing more team basketball. They have a tough matchup tonight against the Heat though as the Heat’s defense has been solid against every position on the floor except for Center. I still like the value of Shaun Livingston and Joe Johnson on certain sites that haven’t adjusted their prices, but outside of those two, I will be staying away from the Nets.
Chicago at Milwaukee
- Vegas Line – No Lines Set for This Game Yet
- Chicago Proj. Starters – Hinrich-Butler-Dunleavy-Boozer-Noah
- Milwaukee Proj. Starters – Knight-Ridnour-Antetokounmpo-Ilyasova-Sanders
Chicago
The Bulls and Bucks are two of the slowest paced teams in the league. Both teams average less than 94 possessions per game and Vegas has the total set at only 178 points. That total is extremely low. The Bulls will have Carlos Boozer back for tonight’s game which ends the run for Taj Gibson as a great value play.
- Jimmy Butler – Even though this game should be low scoring, opportunity can outweigh matchup on most occasions. That is the case with Jimmy Butler tonight. With Luol Deng gone, Butler should play close to 40 minutes per game and should be able to cover his value tonight as his price is very affordable across the industry.
Milwaukee
The Bucks will be without John Henson again tonight and have a very tough matchup ahead of them. The Bulls rank in the top 8 at defending PG’s, SG’s, and Centers. The SF and PF positions for the Bucks aren’t necessarily two positions that you can count on for fantasy production. I think Larry Sanders makes a nice GPP play on sites where he is extremely cheap, but the matchup doesn’t bode well for the other Bucks.
Cleveland at Utah
- Vegas Line – Utah -3, 193.5 Over/Under
- Cleveland Proj. Starters – Irving-Miles-Deng-Thompson-Varejao
- Utah Proj. Starters – Burke-Hayward-Jefferson-Williams-Favors
Cleveland
The Cavs will likely have Jarrett Jack back for tonight’s game and now that both he and Kyrie Irving are healthy, it really hurts the value of both C.J. Miles and Dion Waiters. While they are both great scorers, expect them both to go back to their usual minute totals which leaves them as average plays at best. Luol Deng will make his Cavaliers debut and I’m excited to see how he fits in with this team. I expect them to be a playoff team with his addition into the lineup.
- Anderson Varejao – The Jazz have really struggled to defend the Center position this season and I think Andy could be in for another big night. He’s been a big part of the offense over the last two weeks and should continue to post big rebounding totals.
Utah
The Jazz are facing a Cavs team that plays at a similar place and with a similar style of play. The Cavs have been the worst team at defending SF’s this season, but that should change now that they have Luol Deng who is one of the better defenders in the league. I don’t love the matchup for Derrick Favors, Varejao is a solid defender and will likely outhustle him for rebounds on a few occasions.
- Trey Burke – Burke is very high on my list tonight, probably higher than most people have him. Burke has averaged more than 25 FP’s per game at home this season and is facing a Cavs team that has been one of the worst teams at defending PG’s this season. Burke’s price has come down a bit and now is the time to buy low on him.
Orlando at Sacramento
- Vegas Line – Sacramento -7, 205 Over/Under
- Orlando Proj. Starters – Nelson-Oladipo-Afflalo-Harris-Davis
- Sacramento Proj. Starters – Thomas-Thornton-Gay-Thompson-Cousins
Orlando
The Magic are 7 point underdogs tonight against the Kings, but they should be able to keep this game competitive. They are expecting to be without Nikola Vucevic again tonight so look for three Magic players to all receive a nice boost. Glen Davis is the most obvious of the bunch, but both Tobias Harris and Victor Oladipo will benefit as well.
- Glen Davis – Davis is one of my favorite cash game plays tonight and also a nice GPP play. His price is very cheap across the board and I have a hard time seeing him not top 30 FP’s in this one. The Kings are not a good team defensively and Davis should be able to pick up double-digit rebounds.
- Victor Oladipo – Without Vucevic in the lineup, the Magic will likely start Oladipo once again and slide Harris over to the PF spot. If so, Oladipo could be in for a monster night. We all know the type of upside that he has and the matchup against the Kings is a solid one.
Sacramento
The Kings are also in a favorable position tonight. The total of this game is high and the Magic have not played great defense this season. Neither team has a single DvP ranking in the red. Marcus Thornton will get another start at SG and makes an interesting GPP play. He can get hot at anytime and rack up fantasy points in a hurry. Both Rudy Gay and Isaiah Thomas are also in play.
- DeMarcus Cousins – The Magic are going to have an extremely hard time defending Cousins down low. With Vucevic out, Davis will likely get the start at Center and Cousins should be in for a monster game against him. Even if Maxiell gets the start, I don’t see Cousins having a hard time scoring.
Boston at Golden State
- Vegas Line – Golden State -11, 203.5 Over/Under
- Boston Proj. Starters – Crawford-Bradley-Green-Humphries-Bass
- Golden State Proj. Starters – Curry-Thompson-Iguodala-Lee-Bogut
Boston
The Celtics are 11 point underdogs against the Warriors tonight. While they have proven their ability to compete with the top teams this season, the Warriors are one of the best home teams in the league. I have a hard time seeing the Celtics keeping this one close. Not only that, but the Warriors have defended every position well this season with the exception of PG’s.
Golden State
The Warriors are taking on a Celtics team that only averages 95 possessions per game so we can expect this game to be played at a slightly slower pace than the Warriors are used to. With the Warriors being 11 point favorites, I have a hard time paying up for either Stephen Curry or David Lee.
- Andrew Bogut – The one player on the Warriors that doesn’t get hurt by a blowout is Bogut and that’s because he typically doesn’t play more than 25-28 minutes per game anyway. I love his matchup against Humphries down low and think that he will have a field day on the glass.
L.A.Lakers at L.A.Clippers
- Vegas Line – L.A.Clippers -10.5, 209 Over/Under
- L.A.Lakers Proj. Starters – Marshall-Meeks-Young-Gasol-Sacre
- L.A.Clippers Proj. Starters – Collison-Crawford-Dudley-Griffin-Jordan
L.A.Lakers
The Lakers have been a very tough team to predict lately. They can keep it close and then let their opponents go on long runs and all of the sudden the game is out of hand. Vegas expects this game to be one of the higher scoring games of the night though so I will be targeting players from both teams. Jodie Meeks should continue to play well in this one, but I think there are better options in his price range tonight.
- Pau Gasol – Gasol has really been playing well and has an excellent matchup against the Clippers who have really struggled to defend the post this season. Gasol makes a great fantasy option because he can do everything on the court. He can score, rebound, and pass. The good news for us is that he doesn’t lose fantasy points for being a bad defender.
L.A.Clippers
The Clippers have the second best matchup on the board next to the Pistons, the only concern here is that this game turns into a blowout. The Lakers rank in the bottom 5 at defending every position except for the SF position. J.J. Redick will make his way back into the lineup tonight. I’m not sure how many minutes he will see, but it does hurt the value of Jared Dudley. I think Jamal Crawford should still see around 35 minutes though. Blake Griffin makes a great play tonight if you can stomach paying the price for him in a potential blowout.
- Darren Collison – Collison has played great with Paul out and I expect that to continue tonight. He has been hovering right around the 30 FP mark and I expect him to post similar numbers tonight. He should push the tempo and create some easy shots for his teammates.
- DeAndre Jordan – We all know the upside of Jordan thanks to his ability to block shots and post 15+ rebounds on any given night. He has a very favorable matchup against the Lakers and he should be on the receiving end of quite a few alley-oops. I’m expecting a 15/15/5 game from him tonight which certainly puts him in play for GPP’s. The potential blowout in this game could scare a lot of people off of Jordan which helps his GPP value even more.