NBA Grind Down: Friday, March 28th - Page 2

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2014-03-28 19:47:39

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Portland at Chicago

Vegas Line – Chicago -4, 187 Over/Under
Portland Proj. Starters – Lillard-Matthews-Batum-Aldridge-Lopez
Chicago Proj. Starters – Hinrich-Butler-Dunleavy-Boozer-Noah

Portland

The Blazers are a very fast paced team that averages 106 points per game while giving up 103 points per game to their opponents. The fact that they are only projected to score 92 points tonight should give you all that you need to know about their fantasy value. The Bulls are one of the slowest paced teams in the league and own the league’s second best defense. They are ranked1 10th or better against all five positions. You should avoid all Blazers tonight.

Chicago

The Bulls on the other hand have a pretty solid matchup. This will be a pace-up game for the Bulls and there are a few fantasy options that you can target here. The Blazers have surrendered the 4th most FP’s to opposing PG’s this season and I think this is very sneaky spot to throw D.J. Augustin in on a tournament team or two. He’s been seeing close to starter’s minutes and has a terrific matchup.

Joakim Noah – Noah is on triple-double watch once again tonight. He has a nice matchup against Lopez who is much slower than Noah. The Bulls’ offense runs through Noah and with his assists totals up, his floor has been around 40 FP’s over the last month or so. There are a lot of good Center plays tonight so if you are playing on a site that allows more than 1 Center, you should take advantage of it.

L.A.Lakers at Minnesota

Vegas Line – Minnesota -11, 225 Over/Under
L.A.Lakers Proj. Starters – Marshall-Meeks-Johnson-Hill-Kaman
Minnesota Proj. Starters – Rubio-Martin-Brewer-Love-Dieng

L.A.Lakers

The Chris Kaman roller coaster was quite entertaining last night. No one knew if he was going to make the game in time and then all of the sudden there he was in the starting lineup. The Lakers have a very nice matchup against the Wolves tonight, but this game does have the potential to turn into a blowout. The Lakers have not been a very good road team this season. The Lakers will be without Pau Gasol again tonight so look for Hill and Kaman to be popular plays.

Jordan Hill – Hill is close to a must play on FD and DK tonight. His price is under $5k on both sites and he has topped 32 FP’s in 3 of his last 4 games. With Pau out of the lineup, we should (assuming D’Antoni doesn’t play Ryan Kelly 40 minutes) see Hill get all of the minutes he can handle. He will likely be one of the most popular plays tonight.

Chris Kaman – Kaman has really played well as a starter this season and with Pau out for tonight’s game, Kaman will draw another start at Center. He has a tough matchup against either Dieng or Pekovic, but he’s cheap and has the ability to post a 30 FP outing.

Minnesota

The Wolves will likely be without Nikola Pekovic again tonight although there has not been an official announcement on his status. This is a terrific matchup for the Wolves. The Lakers are giving up the 2nd most points per game this season and are ranked 29th or 30th against all positions on the floor in terms of fantasy points allowed. All five starters will be in play tonight. Ricky Rubio makes a nice tournament play, Kevin Martin could easily reach value with points alone, and Corey Brewer has finally started to play well.

Kevin Love – Love is the top fantasy option on the board tonight and the Wolves don’t really have a reason to rest him if they get up big. I think we will see Love play at least 35 minutes even in a blowout. The Lakers are the worst rebounding team in the league and with Love picking up his assist totals, that only adds to his fantasy value.

Gorgui Dieng – Dieng will be a must play on FD tonight as long as Pek is out. He has scored 29 or more fantasy points in 5 of his 6 starts. This is a great matchup and the impressive rookie should continue his excellent run tonight.

Utah at New Orleans

Vegas Line – New Orleans -6.5, 195 Over/Under
Utah Proj. Starters – Burke-Hayward-Jefferson-Favors-Kanter
New Orleans Proj. Starters – Roberts-Evans-Morrow-Davis-Stiemsma

Utah

The Jazz are one of the worst road teams in the league and really have nothing to play for at this point. This is a decent matchup against the Pelicans though and there are two plays that stand out to me here. Gordon Hayward has a very high ceiling and makes an excellent tournament play tonight. The Pelicans could be extremely short handed tonight and that could bode well for Hayward who can really fill up all areas of the stat sheet.

Enes Kanter – Hopefully someone listened to me the other night and took Kanter against the Grizzlies. Kanter put up 34 FP’s. He’s been playing 35+ minutes per game since being inserted into the starting lineup and the Jazz want to develop him as much as they can. He should dominate the glass once again tonight.

New Orleans

Eric Gordon, Brian Roberts, and Austin Rivers all sat out last game and forced all of us DFS players to do some major last minute scrambling. It sounds like they may force us to do the same again tonight as Gordon and Roberts are both listed as questionable. If either has to sit that would give a nice fantasy boost to Tyreke Evans, Anthony Morrow, and Al-Farouq Aminu. Evans makes a nice tournament play regardless, but would make a solid cash game play as well if either Gordon or Roberts are forced to sit.

Anthony Davis – Davis is at home. I could end my analysis there. He is averaging 10 more FP’s per game at home than he is on the road this season. I like the matchup for him tonight against the Jazz and think he is in for another 50+ FP outing. Love is the only player that I have ranked ahead of him tonight.

Sacramento at Oklahoma City

Vegas Line – Oklahoma City -12, 208 Over/Under
Sacramento Proj. Starters – Thomas-McLemore-Gay-Evans-Cousins
Oklahoma City Proj. Starters – Westbrook-Jackson-Durant-Ibaka-Adams

Sacramento

The Kings are huge underdogs tonight against the Thunder and I wouldn’t be surprised to see this one get ugly. Isaiah Thomas is listed as a GTD for tonight’s game and if he is forced to sit again, Ray McCallum would make a terrific fill in play. He posted 10 points, 6 rebounds, and 5 assists in his last start and most of that came in the 4th quarter. Rudy Gay and DeMarcus Cousins are both better served as GPP plays tonight.

Oklahoma City

The Thunder have a nice matchup against the Kings, but there is the chance that the starters could end up sitting the bench in the 4th quarter. The Kings are giving are giving up the 5th most points per game this season and are below average defensively against all five positions. With the potential blowout, I think I’d rather target Davis or Love instead of Durant tonight.

Russell Westbrook – Westbrook is stuck on that 30 minute cap per night and his salary is adjusted to that amount of playing time. Westbrook will likely see close to 30 minutes regardless of the outcome of the game so even if this game is a blowout, that doesn’t hurt his fantasy value. He’s a solid play at PG tonight.

San Antonio at Denver

Vegas Line – San Antonio -6.5, 215.5 Over/Under
San Antonio Proj. Starters – Parker-Belinelli-Leonard-Duncan-Splitter
Denver Proj. Starters – Lawson-Foye-Arthur-Faried-Mozgov

San Antonio

The Spurs and the Nuggets played the other night in San Antonio in what turned out to be a much closer game than the Spurs would have liked. The Nuggets made a furious come back in the second half and made a game of it. The Spurs winning streak is still alive, but I have a feeling that it could end tonight. In fact, my bold prediction tonight is that the Spurs 15 game winning streak ends!

This is a solid matchup for both teams. The Nuggets are giving up the 3rd most points per game this season and are ranked 18th or worse against all five positions on the floor. The only concern here is that the Spurs play again tomorrow night and we all know how consistent Coach Pop is with his inconsistent decision making when it comes to his veteran’s playing time. I like the matchup, but I’m going to play it safe here and use them in GPP’s only.

Denver

The Nuggets are extremely thin in the front-court tonight. J.J. Hickson is out of the season and Timofey Mozgov has been ruled out for tonight’s game. That means Darrell Arthur and Kenneth Faried are going to see all the minutes they can handle. Both played well against the Spurs the other night and both make nice plays tonight. Wilson Chandler has also been ruled out which just means more minutes for the active players on the Nuggets roster.

Ty Lawson – Lawson is going to be under-owned tonight after he put up a dud performance against this same Spurs team the other night in San Antonio. That said, this game will be played in Denver, the Spurs are ranked below average defensively, and Lawson’s price has come down. Lawson is averaging over 35 FP’s per game at home this season and his high ceiling makes him a great tournament play tonight.

Kenneth Faried – The MANimal is always a solid play at home, especially now that J.J. Hickson is out for the season and the fact that Timofey Mozgov will sit out tonight. Faried has been seeing around 35 minutes per game since the All-Star break and with those two out, it only solidifies those minutes even more. Faried played very well against the Spurs on Wednesday as he posted 45 FP’s in San Antonio.