NBA Grind Down: Friday, May 13th
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.
Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.
We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.
Every game is also broken down by our NBA experts, providing an overview of the game and a selection of players to consider from each contest.
Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.
Toronto Raptors at Miami Heat – Friday 8:00 PM
- Vegas Line – Miami -4, 189 Over/Under
- Toronto Raptors Proj. Starters – Lowry-DeRozan-Carroll-Patterson-Biyombo
- Miami Heat Proj. Starters – Dragic-Wade-Johnson-Deng-Stoudemire
| Toronto Raptors | Miami Heat | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 189.0 |  | Vegas Total | 189.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 4.0 | Vegas Sprd | -4.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 92.5 | Team Proj. | 96.5 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 95.30 | Team Pace | 95.70 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj. Starter | Kyle Lowry | DeMar DeRozan | DeMarre Carroll | Patrick Patterson | Bismack Biyombo | Proj. Starter | Goran Dragic | Dwyane Wade | Joe Johnson | Luol Deng | Amar’e Stoudemire | |
| Opp. Season | 1 | 4 | 12 | 3 | 8 | Opp. Season | 2 | 13 | 7 | 6 | 7 | |
| Last 3 Weeks | 3 | 15 | 1 | 2 | 26 | Last 3 Weeks | 8 | 16 | 21 | 18 | 4 | |
Toronto Raptors
Series Record: 3-2
- Toronto Raptors Offense
Points Scored Per Game: 102.7 (13 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 92.5 (4 of 4)
The Raptors almost blew another fourth quarter lead, but Kyle Lowry came up with some huge buckets down the stretch in Game 5. They now head back to Miami up 3-2 and are a single win away from advancing to the Eastern Conference Finals. DeMarre Carroll went down with a wrist injury in Game 5 and is listed as a game-time decision tonight. Jonas Valanciunas remains out with his ankle injury. The Raptors have the lowest team total on the board and with the Warriors/Thunder series expected to be a shootout, the Raptors may be my least favorite team to target in this slate. DeMar DeRozan, Cory Joseph, and Terrence Ross are decent plays, but I’m not actively targeting any of the three.
- Injury Watch:
Jonas Valanciunas (Out)
DeMarre Carroll (GTD)
Elite Plays
| Bismack Biyombo | |||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | |||
| Salary: | $5,700 | Salary: | $5,600 | ||
| Position: | C | Position: | C | ||
| FP/Min: | 0.84 | FP/Min: | 0.95 | ||
| Statistics | Season Average | Playoffs | Playoffs +/- | Last 3 Games | Last 3 +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minutes | 22.0 | 20.3 | -1.7 | 27.1 | 5.1 |
| FPPG (FD) | 18.4 | 17.1 | -1.4 | 23.1 | 4.7 |
| TO-Adj. Usage | 9.1 | 8.6 | -0.5 | 8.6 | -0.5 |
Biyombo has made the most of his starts all season and that has continued in the playoffs. In his last two starts, he has scored 35 and 25 fantasy points. His effectiveness was diminished in the second half of Game 5 (thanks to a smaller lineup from Miami), but he is still the safest cash game target on the board. It will be interesting to see if the Warriors and Thunder end up playing big or playing small. For this slate, just take Biyombo and move on.
Secondary Plays
| Kyle Lowry | |||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | |||
| Salary: | $8,600 | Salary: | $8,000 | ||
| Position: | PG | Position: | PG | ||
| FP/Min: | 0.83 | FP/Min: | 1.04 | ||
| Statistics | Season Average | Playoffs | Playoffs +/- | Last 3 Games | Last 3 +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minutes | 37.0 | 39.5 | 2.5 | 38.3 | 1.3 |
| FPPG (FD) | 38.5 | 32.9 | -5.6 | 41.7 | 3.2 |
| TO-Adj. Usage | 22.8 | 21.1 | -1.8 | 24.4 | 1.5 |
Lowry seems to be over his elbow injury. Over his last three games, he is averaging 41.7 fantasy points in 38 minutes per contest. His playing time would be even higher if he didn’t get into foul trouble in Game 4. Look for him to play 40+ minutes in a potential closeout Game 6 in Miami. The only issue that I have with Lowry is that if you take him at point guard, you are essentially ruling out either Stephen Curry or Russell Westbrook. For that reason, I see him more as a secondary play.
| Patrick Patterson | |||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | |||
| Salary: | $3,800 | Salary: | $4,000 | ||
| Position: | PF | Position: | PF | ||
| FP/Min: | 0.49 | FP/Min: | 0.57 | ||
| Statistics | Season Average | Playoffs | Playoffs +/- | Last 3 Games | Last 3 +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minutes | 25.6 | 28.3 | 2.7 | 38.9 | 13.3 |
| FPPG (FD) | 15.3 | 13.8 | -1.5 | 14.4 | -0.8 |
| TO-Adj. Usage | 10.9 | 10.8 | -0.1 | 9.2 | -1.7 |
Do you like targeting players that play 40 minutes and score 13 fantasy points? If so, Patterson is the guy for you. He has not been very productive in this series, but he offers good value at a position that doesn’t have many choices. Patterson is worth a look in all league formats, but temper your expectations. The main reason why I like Patterson is that he allows us to spend up at point guard.
Miami Heat
Series Record: 2-3
- Miami Heat Offense
Points Scored Per Game: 100.0 (23 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 96.5 (3 of 4)
The Heat were unable to pick up a win in Toronto in Game 5. They now have to win each of the next two games in order to advance to the Eastern Conference Finals. The Heat are listed as 4.5-point favorites tonight with the second highest team total on the board. Hassan Whiteside has already been ruled out of tonight’s game. Josh McRoberts, Amar’e Stoudemire, and Udonis Haslem will continue to split the minutes at center. Luol Deng hurt his wrist in Game 5 and is currently listed as questionable for Game 6.
- Injury Watch:
Hassan Whiteside (Out)
Luol Deng (Questionable)
Elite Plays
| Dwyane Wade | |||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | |||
| Salary: | $8,300 | Salary: | $8,200 | ||
| Position: | SG | Position: | SG | ||
| FP/Min: | 1.07 | FP/Min: | 1.01 | ||
| Statistics | Season Average | Playoffs | Playoffs +/- | Last 3 Games | Last 3 +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minutes | 30.5 | 33.5 | 3.0 | 36.3 | 5.8 |
| FPPG (FD) | 31.6 | 35.8 | 4.2 | 41.6 | 10.0 |
| TO-Adj. Usage | 26.8 | 26.6 | -0.2 | 28.8 | 2.0 |
Wade has really played well in the last three games in this series, averaging 41.6 fantasy points in 36 minutes per contest. The last time the Heat were in this situation (against Charlotte), Wade took over and willed his team to two straight victories. Look for the Heat to lean on him early and often in a win or stay home Game 6. He is the top shooting guard target in this two-game slate.
| Joe Johnson | |||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | |||
| Salary: | $5,500 | Salary: | $5,700 | ||
| Position: | SF | Position: | SF | ||
| FP/Min: | 0.63 | FP/Min: | 0.67 | ||
| Statistics | Season Average | Playoffs | Playoffs +/- | Last 3 Games | Last 3 +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minutes | 33.4 | 35.9 | 2.5 | 37.0 | 3.6 |
| FPPG (FD) | 22.2 | 22.7 | 0.6 | 24.5 | 2.3 |
| TO-Adj. Usage | 15.6 | 15.2 | -0.4 | 15.5 | -0.1 |
With Hassan Whiteside and Luol Deng statuses both up in the air, Johnson could end up playing 40+ minutes. In fact, even if they both play, Johnson could still see 40+ minutes. He has been productive so far in this series and should continue that tonight at home.
Secondary Plays
| Justise Winslow | |||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | |||
| Salary: | $3,500 | Salary: | $3,500 | ||
| Position: | SF | Position: | SF | ||
| FP/Min: | 0.53 | FP/Min: | 0.69 | ||
| Statistics | Season Average | Playoffs | Playoffs +/- | Last 3 Games | Last 3 +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minutes | 28.6 | 24.2 | -4.4 | 31.9 | 3.3 |
| FPPG (FD) | 16.1 | 12.9 | -3.2 | 15.4 | -0.7 |
| TO-Adj. Usage | 10.1 | 10.3 | 0.2 | 10.0 | -0.1 |
In the two games that Hassan Whiteside has missed, Winslow has averaged 32 minutes and 15 fantasy points per game. He was looking for his own shot in Game 5, which was a nice sight to see. He is a viable punt option on both FanDuel and DraftKings, especially if Luol Deng ends up being out.
Oklahoma City Thunder at Golden State Warriors – 9:00 PM
- Vegas Line – Golden State -7.5, 223.5 Over/Under
- Oklahoma City Thunder Proj. Starters – Westbrook-Roberson-Durant-Ibaka-Adams
- Golden State Warriors Proj. Starters – Curry-Thompson-Barnes-Green-Bogut
| Oklahoma City Thunder | Golden State Warriors | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 223.5 |  | Vegas Total | 223.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 7.5 | Vegas Sprd | -7.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 108.0 | Team Proj. | 115.5 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 99.40 | Team Pace | 101.60 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj. Starter | Russell Westbrook | Andre Roberson | Kevin Durant | Serge Ibaka | Steven Adams | Proj. Starter | Stephen Curry | Klay Thompson | Harrison Barnes | Draymond Green | Andrew Bogut | |
| Opp. Season | 20 | 9 | 15 | 17 | 19 | Opp. Season | 16 | 21 | 13 | 7 | 4 | |
| Last 3 Weeks | 10 | 10 | 25 | 28 | 6 | Last 3 Weeks | 6 | 20 | 26 | 5 | 5 | |
Oklahoma City Thunder
Series Record: 0-0
- Oklahoma City Thunder Offense
Points Scored Per Game: 110.2 (2 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 108.0 (2 of 4)
The Thunder were blown out by the Spurs in Game 1 of the second round. They somehow turned it all around and beat the Spurs four times in the next five games. As a basketball fan, I can’t wait for this series against the Warriors. These are two of the most exciting teams in the NBA with the two best point guards squaring off in a seven game series. The Thunder open up Game 1 as 7.5-point underdogs in a game that features a total of 223.5 points. Basically, the rest of the way we should load up on players in this series and try to get as little exposure as possible to the players in the Eastern Conference. The Thunder employed some big lineups against the Spurs in the last series. It will be interesting to see what they do with Steven Adams and Enes Kanter. For Game 1, I will be taking a wait and see approach on both.
- Injury Watch:
NO INJURIES
Elite Plays
| Russell Westbrook | |||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | |||
| Salary: | $11,100 | Salary: | $11,300 | ||
| Position: | PG | Position: | PG | ||
| FP/Min: | 1.36 | FP/Min: | 1.48 | ||
| Statistics | Season Average | Playoffs | Playoffs +/- | Last 3 Games | Last 3 +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minutes | 34.4 | 36.4 | 2.0 | 38.3 | 3.9 |
| FPPG (FD) | 48.8 | 49.6 | 0.8 | 51.0 | 2.2 |
| TO-Adj. Usage | 28.3 | 30.6 | 2.3 | 29.5 | 1.1 |
Who scores more fantasy points in this series – Westbrook or Curry? I’m going to do everything that I can do get both of them in my lineups as often as possible, that way I won’t have to make that difficult decision every night. Westbrook averaged 47.4 fantasy points in their three meetings earlier in the season and that should only go up, as he is now playing close to 40 minutes per game.
| Kevin Durant | |||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | |||
| Salary: | $10,100 | Salary: | $9,900 | ||
| Position: | SF | Position: | SF | ||
| FP/Min: | 0.98 | FP/Min: | 1.24 | ||
| Statistics | Season Average | Playoffs | Playoffs +/- | Last 3 Games | Last 3 +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minutes | 35.8 | 39.7 | 3.9 | 42.9 | 7.1 |
| FPPG (FD) | 46.4 | 39.0 | -7.4 | 45.8 | -0.6 |
| TO-Adj. Usage | 26.3 | 26.1 | -0.2 | 26.7 | 0.4 |
Durant is the premier play at small forward, but it’s going to be tough to fit Durant, Curry, and Westbrook. Tough decisions need to be made when it comes to roster construction. Given the value at small forward, I’m leaning toward punting the position. Durant still deserves to be considered an elite play though, as he averaged 60 fantasy points per game against the Warriors during the regular season.
Secondary Plays
| Serge Ibaka | |||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | |||
| Salary: | $5,200 | Salary: | $5,100 | ||
| Position: | PF | Position: | PF | ||
| FP/Min: | 0.71 | FP/Min: | 0.83 | ||
| Statistics | Season Average | Playoffs | Playoffs +/- | Last 3 Games | Last 3 +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minutes | 32.1 | 32.0 | -0.1 | 30.6 | -1.5 |
| FPPG (FD) | 25.4 | 22.7 | -2.7 | 16.3 | -9.1 |
| TO-Adj. Usage | 14.8 | 10.8 | -4.0 | 9.0 | -5.8 |
The Thunder didn’t use Ibaka a whole lot against the Spurs, but I expect him to see a minutes boost in this series. He is a better matchup against Draymond Green and Game 1 presents a good opportunity to buy low on him. I’m interested to see what his ownership will be, coming off of a disappointing series against San Antonio.
| Dion Waiters | |||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | |||
| Salary: | $3,800 | Salary: | $3,800 | ||
| Position: | SG | Position: | SG | ||
| FP/Min: | 0.64 | FP/Min: | 0.73 | ||
| Statistics | Season Average | Playoffs | Playoffs +/- | Last 3 Games | Last 3 +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minutes | 27.6 | 24.7 | -2.9 | 24.6 | -3.0 |
| FPPG (FD) | 16.7 | 15.7 | -1.0 | 17.8 | 1.1 |
| TO-Adj. Usage | 15.2 | 14.0 | -1.2 | 14.2 | -1.0 |
I believe I have rostered Waiters one time this season. While I’m not a huge fan of using him in DFS, we are going to have to save some salary somewhere in afford to afford the superstars in this series. With both teams potentially playing smaller, Waiters could see a boost in minutes. I’m willing to take a shot on him at close to minimum salary.
Golden State Warriors
Series Record: 0-0
- Golden State Warriors Offense
Points Scored Per Game: 114.9 (1 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 115.5 (1 of 4)
The Warriors were able to beat the Blazers in five games, even though they were without their best player (and two time MVP) for a period of time. They now host the Thunder in a series that everyone is excited for. This should be a competitive series that features two teams that have adopted the newer style of basketball. Points should be scored in bunches in this one. The Warriors open up as 7.5-point favorites in Game 1. Draymond Green is expected to play, but it sounds like Andrew Bogut is questionable. For the Friday/Monday slate, avoid Bogut in all league formats.
- Injury Watch:
Draymond Green (Probable)
Andrew Bogut (Questionable)
Elite Plays
| Stephen Curry | |||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | |||
| Salary: | $11,100 | Salary: | $10,500 | ||
| Position: | PG | Position: | PG | ||
| FP/Min: | 1.41 | FP/Min: | 1.88 | ||
| Statistics | Season Average | Playoffs | Playoffs +/- | Last 3 Games | Last 3 +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minutes | 34.2 | 27.9 | -6.3 | 36.5 | 2.3 |
| FPPG (FD) | 47.9 | 39.2 | -8.7 | 54.2 | 6.2 |
| TO-Adj. Usage | 27.8 | 30.3 | 2.4 | 32.5 | 4.6 |
If you haven’t seen the highlights from the meetings during the regular season, I highly recommend finding them online. Curry hit some ridiculous shots, including one close to half-court to beat the Thunder. He is coming off of two strong games against the Blazers and we know how successful point guards have been against the Thunder all season.
| Klay Thompson | |||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | |||
| Salary: | $8,300 | Salary: | $7,800 | ||
| Position: | SG | Position: | SG | ||
| FP/Min: | 1.02 | FP/Min: | 0.95 | ||
| Statistics | Season Average | Playoffs | Playoffs +/- | Last 3 Games | Last 3 +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minutes | 33.3 | 36.1 | 2.8 | 38.2 | 4.9 |
| FPPG (FD) | 30.9 | 36.8 | 5.9 | 36.6 | 5.7 |
| TO-Adj. Usage | 22.3 | 23.9 | 1.6 | 22.7 | 0.4 |
With Curry back in the lineup, Thompson seems a bit overpriced at shooting guard. While I may look to fade him in cash games, he makes an elite GPP play. His ownership will likely be lower than it was in the Portland series and we all know that he can catch fire at any time. The pace of this series should also help create some open looks for Thompson.
Secondary Plays
| Draymond Green | |||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | |||
| Salary: | $10,200 | Salary: | $10,400 | ||
| Position: | PF | Position: | PF | ||
| FP/Min: | 1.23 | FP/Min: | 1.16 | ||
| Statistics | Season Average | Playoffs | Playoffs +/- | Last 3 Games | Last 3 +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minutes | 34.7 | 37.6 | 2.9 | 40.3 | 5.6 |
| FPPG (FD) | 39.1 | 46.1 | 7.0 | 52.8 | 13.7 |
| TO-Adj. Usage | 16.0 | 18.1 | 2.2 | 18.1 | 2.2 |
Green hurt his ankle in Game 5 against the Blazers, but he was able to return to the game and is fully expected to play in Game 1 against the Thunder. He has been a monster so far in the postseason, averaging 46.1 fantasy points in close to 38 minutes per contest. He draws his toughest matchup to date though, as Serge Ibaka and Steven Adams are both very good low post defenders.
| Andre Iguodala | |||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | |||
| Salary: | $4,500 | Salary: | $3,900 | ||
| Position: | SF | Position: | SF | ||
| FP/Min: | 0.69 | FP/Min: | 0.68 | ||
| Statistics | Season Average | Playoffs | Playoffs +/- | Last 3 Games | Last 3 +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minutes | 26.6 | 29.7 | 3.1 | 32.5 | 5.9 |
| FPPG (FD) | 18.5 | 20.5 | 2.0 | 14.4 | -4.1 |
| TO-Adj. Usage | 10.7 | 11.3 | 0.5 | 7.8 | -2.9 |
It’s always tough deciding between Barnes and Iguodala. While they are close, I slightly prefer Iguodala in this series. He is more of a playmaker on offense and with the expected pace of these games, he provides slightly more upside. It may not be a bad idea to play both.