NBA Grind Down: Friday, November 15th - Page 2
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Dallas at Miami
Dallas
The Mavericks have been a surprising team this season. They rank in the top 5 in both pace of play (101) and points scored per game (106). This fast tempo offense really fits the style of Shawn Marion and we are seeing him play much like the Marion that was in Phoenix. He is averaging close to 30 FP’s per game this season and a couple of teams have yet to adjust his price.
The matchup against the Heat isn’t a great one. The Heat have really picked it up defensively in their last few games and they are not giving opponents an inch. The Heat rank in the top 12 against every position except for Center and it’s hard for me to see Dalmebert playing much tonight. The Mavs will likely play small ball to match up with the Heat.
Miami
The Heat are playing at an average pace (95), yet they are the 5th highest scoring team in the league at 106 points per game. They are playing great defense and getting easy looks in transition. The matchup tonight against the Mavericks is an excellent one as the Mavs are giving up 103 points per game.
The Mavericks have not defended any position very well this season. They rank in the bottom half of the league against every position and have really struggled to contain SF’s. This could mean big things for Lebron tonight.
Players to Target
- Lebron James – Now may be the time to pull the trigger on Lebron. He has an excellent matchup against the Mavericks in what should be a very high scoring game. You know that he is still upset about losing that championship to the Mavs too. Look for Lebron to be very aggressive early on and to keep the pedal on the gas as long as this game stays close. I think he may have his first triple-double of the season.
Minnesota at Denver
Minnesota
The Wolves are one of the fastest-paced teams in the league averaging 102 possessions per 48 minutes. They are also the second highest scoring team in the league at 108 points per game. They should get Kevin Martin back as he missed the last game due to an illness. Look for him to pick up right where he left off.
The matchup against the Nuggets is favorable for all players on the Wolves. The Nuggets have not defended any position very well and have been awful against opposing big men. The likes of Faried, Mozgov, and Hickson just aren’t enough to stop any big man that has a decent offensive game. I don’t think you can go wrong with Rubio, Martin, or Brewer, but the best matchups fall to Love and Pekovic.
Players to Target
Denver
The Nuggets have really had their early season struggles. They’ve been without Chandler, Gallinari, and McGee for most of the season and it has really shown. The Nuggets are typically near the top of the league in scoring, but this season they are only averaging 100 points which is only the 13th highest in the league. However, things are starting to look up as Wilson Chandler made his debut the other night and played well in limited minutes.
This game should be an extremely high scoring game with plenty of fantasy options. The wings of the Nuggets can be avoided though as I’m not quite sure how they are going to divide the minutes.
Players to Target
- Ty Lawson – Lawson has been the best offensive player on the Nuggets by far this season and has really turned it on over the last four games. He’s averaged close to 40 FP’s over that stretch and should be able to keep it going against Rubio and the Wolves tonight.
- Kenneth Faried – I like Faried more as a GPP play, but his price is fair across the board and he is averaging over 30 FP’s per game over his last two. With the injuries to the Nuggets and the fact that they are dangling him as trade bait, I expect him to see good minutes tonight.
Brooklyn at Phoenix
Brooklyn
The Nets haven’t been a good fantasy team to target or a good basketball team. They have yet to gel and it’s looking like it could be a long season together. At this point, I could break down the numbers, but the Nets don’t have any viable fantasy options other than Brook Lopez. You could roll the dice with him, but why take the chance with so many other options.
Phoenix
Goran Dragic got some stitches last game but sounds like he will be in the lineup today. He’s had a brutal start to the season with injuries. The Suns are in the bottom half of the league in both pace of play and points scored per game. They have had some bright spots early on in the season, but each player has been very inconsistent. Dragic, Bledsoe, Morris, and Plumlee have all been up and down this season.
However, the Nets really struggle against SG’s and Centers this season so if the price is right, both Eric Bledose and Miles Plumlee look like solid plays.
Players to Target
- Eric Bledsoe – Bledsoe will be the fastest, most athletic player on the court tonight and should be able to attack the basket and get some easy buckets against this very old, very slow lineup of the Nets. Bledsoe has scored over 35 FP’s in five of his last six games and has a good shot to top that again tonight.
San Antonio at Utah
San Antonio
The Spurs have been dominating opponents this season and have the second highest point differential at 9.3 per game. Tonight they face a Jazz team that gets blown out more often than not. My gut tells me that this game will be closer than most people think, but Vegas has the line at 10 and it could get ugly if the Jazz get down early.
The Jazz have been good against PG’s and Centers this season, but have struggled against the other 3 positions. Tim Duncan will be matched up with Derrick Favors and it’s not my favorite matchup for either guy. I see them neutralizing each other more than anything.
Players to Target
- Kawhi Leonard – Leonard has seen his minutes drop this season. Part of that is due to the fact that the Spurs have blown out so many teams, but I think part of it is that Pop wants to keep him fresh. If this game stays close, he should top 30 minutes and that’s more than enough time for him to cover his value.
- Danny Green – Green is one of my favorite tournament plays today. He has great upside and can catch fire at any time.
Utah
The Jazz have some nice fantasy options when they keep the games close. The problem is that they have had problems staying in games. The matchup against the Spurs looks awful on paper, but I do think that both Gordon Hayward and Enes Kanter could make good plays. Kanter has a nice upside and his price is still pretty cheap on both FD and DK. Hayward on the other hand is the most complete player on the Jazz and makes a nice sleeper play if his price is right.
Memphis at L.A.Lakers
Memphis
It’s always interesting to see how Vegas treats games like these that feature two differing styles of play. Vegas has the total of this game set at 197 points which leads me to believe that the Lakers will establish their tempo more than the Grizzlies will. That’s good news for us because the Grizzlies pace of play really hurts their fantasy appeal.
The Lakers have been awful defensively this season and rank in the bottom 2 against PG’s, SG’s, and PF’s. They have also been bad against SF’s and Centers, just not as bad. You can make the case for Mike Conley, Zach Randolph, and Marc Gasol tonight, but I’m interested to see if the Lakers DvP rankings against PF’s will change now that Hill is in the starting lineup. I will be targeting Conley and Gasol tongiht.
Players to Target
- Mike Conley – Conley has a great matchup tonight. His price on DS makes him hard to play, but his price everywhere else is fair. Look for him to top 35 FP’s against a bad Lakers defense.
- Marc Gasol – The Battle of the Brothers is on! They are both very boring players to watch, but they are both very talented. I give the edge to Marc in this matchup because he is the much better defender.
L.A.Lakers
The Lakers play at an extremely fast pace. They are a D’Antoni team that loves to take quick shots. The main thing to note here is the play of Jordan Hill. Since being inserted into the starting lineup, he is averaging over 40 FP’s per game. His price hasn’t been adjusted on a couple of sites and looks like a must play. I also like the value for both Steve Blake and Wesley Johnson, but they are in tough matchups.