NBA Grind Down: Monday, April 23rd
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.
Vegas lines are broken down to show projected Implied Team Totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.
We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.
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Houston Rockets at Minnesota Timberwolves – 8:00 PM ET
| Houston Rockets | Minnesota Timberwolves | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 217.5 |  | Vegas Total | 217.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | -6.0 | Vegas Spread | 6.0 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 111.8 | Implied Team Total | 105.8 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | -1.3 | Pace Projection +/- | 0.1 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Chris Paul | James Harden | Trevor Ariza | P.J. Tucker | Clint Capela | Projected Starters | Jeff Teague | Jimmy Butler | Andrew Wiggins | Taj Gibson | Karl-Anthony Towns | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 19 | 20 | 1 | 4 | 12 | DvP | 6 | 12 | 10 | 6 | 17 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 18 | 1 | 28 | 15 | 24 | DRPM Rat. | 3 | 16 | 10 | 8 | 4 | |
Houston Rockets
There are only two games on the schedule tonight, which means the options at each position are scarce. It also means we will see concentrated ownership around a player or two at each position. The Rockets couldn’t pick up a win in Game 3, so will need a win tonight if they want to head back to Houston with a 3-1 lead in the series. They come into Game 4 as six-point favorites with an implied total of 111.8 points. Their team total is easily the highest on the board, but that’s to be expected given how efficient the Rockets’ offense is compared to the Wolves, Jazz, and Thunder.
Chris Paul has logged 30 minutes in back-to-back games, but he didn’t play the last seven minutes in Game 2 and the last three minutes in Game 3. With a fairly close spread tonight, we can project Paul to play 33-35 minutes. He doesn’t have the best track record against Jeff Teague and the Wolves this season, but we have the opportunity to play him at a discounted price point. Ricky Rubio is going to garner the most ownership at point guard, so Paul is an interesting pivot in tournaments or you can even pair the two in cash games. James Harden is 11-for-39 from the floor in his last two games. While Jimmy Butler deserves some credit, we should expect Harden’s shooting to improve moving forward. He’s easily the top play on the board from a projection standpoint, but finding value is difficult. Most may lean to a more balanced lineup construction tonight.
Trevor Ariza isn’t flashy and nobody gets excited to click the little plus button next to his name, but he grades out as one of the best point-per-dollar plays at forward. He’s going to see minutes in the mid-30s at a price point below $5,000 on both FanDuel and DraftKings. Gerald Green has been good in this series, but a lot of his production comes in garbage time. With Ryan Anderson back in the mix (18 minutes in Game 3), Green may have a limited role moving forward. Eric Gordon is one of my favorite value plays at any position. He has played at least 29 minutes in every game this series and has averaged 13 shot attempts. As soon as his shot starts to fall, he will easily pay off his salary. Clint Capela had that huge first half in Game 1 of this series, but has been fairly quiet since. His price point on DraftKings ($6,700) is appealing, but I wouldn’t consider him a core play.
Notable Injuries
Luc Mbah a Moute (Out)
Houston Rockets Offense
Points Per Game: 112.4 (2 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 111.8 (1 of 4)
Projected Point Differential: -0.7 (2 of 4)
Matchup vs. Minnesota Timberwolves
Points Allowed Per Game: 107.3 (17 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 108.4 (22 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 0.2 (17 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.3 (22 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | Playoffs +/- | Minutes | Playoffs +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Paul | $8,700 | $7,700 | $14,900 | 40.4 | -5.2 | 31.8 | -0.4 | 1.27 | 25.8% | 16 | 19 | 18 |
| James Harden | $12,200 | $10,600 | $22,100 | 53.2 | -2.2 | 35.4 | 0.5 | 1.50 | 33.8% | 27 | 20 | 1 |
| Trevor Ariza | $4,700 | $4,300 | $8,500 | 23.7 | -4.8 | 33.9 | -0.1 | 0.70 | 13.4% | 2 | 1 | 28 |
| P.J. Tucker | $3,900 | $3,500 | $6,800 | 17.2 | -6.5 | 27.8 | -2.3 | 0.62 | 9.3% | 2 | 4 | 15 |
| Clint Capela | $7,600 | $6,700 | $13,100 | 34.9 | 0.9 | 27.5 | 2.5 | 1.27 | 16.6% | 28 | 12 | 24 |
| Eric Gordon | $5,400 | $4,600 | $9,900 | 25.4 | -10.0 | 31.2 | -0.4 | 0.81 | 21.8% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Gerald Green | $4,000 | $4,500 | $8,400 | 19.0 | 2.1 | 22.7 | -0.4 | 0.84 | 19.9% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Chris Paul, Trevor Ariza, James Harden (GPP), Eric Gordon (DK), Clint Capela (DK)
Secondary Plays – James Harden (Cash), Eric Gordon (FD), Clint Capela (FD GPP)
Minnesota Timberwolves
The Wolves picked up a big win in Game 3. One more victory and the series is tied up heading back to Houston. After strange rotations in Games 1 and 2, Tom Thibodeau finally gave his starters a full complement of minutes in their last game. I expect more of that tonight in a game that they have to win to have any chance in this series. The Wolves have an implied total of 105.8 points, which is the third highest of the slate.
Jeff Teague has had some really good and really bad outings against the Rockets this season. In Game 3, he logged 41 minutes and scored 42 fantasy points. His price is affordable across the industry (especially DraftKings) and we have a limited player pool to work with. Ricky Rubio is the safest bet at the position and it makes sense to pair him with Teague or Chris Paul. Jimmy Butler played 41 minutes in Game 3 and had his best outing of the series. He is going to have a fraction of the ownership as Paul George, even though he has the better matchup of the two and is playing at home. I love Butler as a pivot play off of George in tournaments. Jamal Crawford and Derrick Rose have both played big minutes in this series. The Wolves seem content playing small ball with Houston, so if you are in a pinch and need value, the Wolves’ reserves might be your best bet.
Andrew Wiggins isn’t a player that I love to target in DFS thanks to his reliance on scoring for his fantasy production, but he’s firmly in play on DraftKings at a price of only $5,800. He should see minutes in the mid to upper-30s and have plenty of shot attempts. I’m hesitant to play Taj Gibson, even though we have limited options at power forward. Gibson has only logged 23 and 25 minutes in the last two games and it wasn’t due to foul trouble. Karl-Anthony Towns had that insane stretch of games against Clint Capela dating back to his rookie season. The Rockets clearly changed their game plan with Towns in this series, by doubling him every time in the post. Towns has only taken nine, nine, and 13 shots attempts in the three games so far in this series. While that’s a concern, I do like his price point on DraftKings ($8,600). We all know he is capable of a 60+ fantasy point outing.
Notable Injuries
None
Minnesota Timberwolves Offense
Points Per Game: 109.5 (8 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 105.8 (3 of 4)
Projected Point Differential: -3.8 (3 of 4)
Matchup vs. Houston Rockets
Points Allowed Per Game: 103.9 (6 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 103.8 (6 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 1.5 (10 of 30)
Pace of Play: 99.7 (14 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | Playoffs +/- | Minutes | Playoffs +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Teague | $7,200 | $6,400 | $13,400 | 31.2 | -0.4 | 33.0 | -3.5 | 0.95 | 20.6% | 4 | 6 | 3 |
| Jimmy Butler | $8,800 | $8,000 | $15,400 | 41.3 | -11.0 | 36.7 | -2.5 | 1.13 | 24.1% | 12 | 12 | 16 |
| Andrew Wiggins | $6,400 | $5,800 | $13,100 | 29.4 | 1.9 | 36.3 | -3.7 | 0.81 | 21.0% | 19 | 10 | 10 |
| Taj Gibson | $5,300 | $4,300 | $8,500 | 25.9 | -12.1 | 33.2 | -6.8 | 0.78 | 13.3% | 4 | 6 | 8 |
| Karl-Anthony Towns | $10,200 | $8,600 | $15,800 | 44.4 | -12.0 | 35.6 | -1.5 | 1.25 | 20.3% | 12 | 17 | 4 |
| Jamal Crawford | $3,600 | $3,700 | $7,200 | 15.8 | 1.4 | 20.7 | 3.8 | 0.76 | 22.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Derrick Rose | $3,800 | $3,800 | $7,000 | 12.4 | 7.0 | 16.8 | 4.0 | 0.74 | 21.8% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Gorgui Dieng | $3,500 | $3,000 | $6,300 | 15.4 | -0.8 | 16.9 | -3.0 | 0.91 | 14.6% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Jeff Teague (DK), Jamal Crawford (FD), Jimmy Butler (GPP), Karl-Anthony Towns (DK)
Secondary Plays – Jeff Teague (FD), Jamal Crawford (DK), Jimmy Butler (Cash), Karl-Anthony Towns (FD GPP), Derrick Rose
Oklahoma City Thunder at Utah Jazz – 10:30 PM ET
| Oklahoma City Thunder | Utah Jazz | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 208.5 |  | Vegas Total | 208.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | 4.5 | Vegas Spread | -4.5 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 102.0 | Implied Team Total | 106.5 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | -1.8 | Pace Projection +/- | -0.4 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Russell Westbrook | Corey Brewer | Paul George | Carmelo Anthony | Steven Adams | Projected Starters | Ricky Rubio | Donovan Mitchell | Joe Ingles | Derrick Favors | Rudy Gobert | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 13 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 6 | DvP | 8 | 24 | 7 | 10 | 3 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 2 | 6 | 6 | 10 | 1 | DRPM Rat. | 5 | 20 | 9 | 25 | 17 | |
Oklahoma City Thunder
The Thunder were on fire in Game 1 of this series. I warned everyone that they wouldn’t be able to sustain it against this Jazz defense. We’ve seen that come to fruition in Games 2 and 3, as the Thunder only scored 95 and 102 points. They can’t afford to fall down 3-1 in this series, so they will give everything that they have here in Game 4. Oklahoma City is listed as a 4.5-point underdog with an implied total of only 102 points. Not only is it the lowest of the slate, but they have the worst projected point differential as well.
Russell Westbrook has not been himself in this series. It’s hard to attack the rim consistently when Rudy Gobert is manning the paint at all times. Westbrook has had to struggle for a lot of jump shots, which can be hit or miss. Given the fact that this game is on the road in a very tough environment, I have a hard time seeing him reach value at his current price point. The fact that there aren’t many value plays available in this slate doesn’t help. Corey Brewer has played well in this series and is a decent pivot off of Trevor Ariza in tournaments. He should log 30+ minutes in Game 4 and is still priced below $5,000 on both FanDuel and DraftKings.
I have mixed feelings about Paul George. While I love that he is going to play 40 minutes tonight, “Playoff P” is taking too many three-point shots. He’s already attempted 31 threes in this series and we have only played three games. I’d like to see him attack the paint a little more, as he’s one bad shooting performance away from a dud. For cash games, I still prefer George over Jimmy Butler, but for tournaments, I will take the latter at lower ownership. Carmelo Anthony has not shot the ball well in this series and has still averaged 32 fantasy points per game. I like the price point, I like the usage, and I like the fact that he’s playing 35+ minutes a game. Steven Adams has been in foul trouble in each of the last two games. While that’s a concern for Game 4, we know that he is capable of playing 35+ minutes and his price is all the way down to $5,200 on DraftKings.
Notable Injuries
None
Oklahoma City Thunder Offense
Points Per Game: 107.9 (12 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 102.0 (4 of 4)
Projected Point Differential: -5.9 (4 of 4)
Matchup vs. Utah Jazz
Points Allowed Per Game: 99.8 (1 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 101.6 (2 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 1.7 (6 of 30)
Pace of Play: 97.8 (25 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | Playoffs +/- | Minutes | Playoffs +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Westbrook | $12,000 | $10,700 | $23,100 | 54.5 | -4.0 | 36.4 | 0.8 | 1.50 | 34.0% | 9 | 13 | 2 |
| Corey Brewer | $4,600 | $4,400 | $8,900 | 12.4 | 10.8 | 16.8 | 13.3 | 0.74 | 13.3% | 4 | 1 | 6 |
| Paul George | $7,900 | $7,600 | $15,600 | 38.5 | -0.6 | 36.6 | 3.8 | 1.05 | 23.6% | 4 | 4 | 6 |
| Carmelo Anthony | $5,600 | $5,600 | $11,100 | 27.4 | 4.7 | 32.1 | 3.4 | 0.85 | 21.1% | 1 | 2 | 10 |
| Steven Adams | $6,100 | $5,200 | $11,200 | 31.4 | -12.6 | 32.7 | -4.4 | 0.96 | 14.7% | 1 | 6 | 1 |
| Jerami Grant | $4,100 | $3,600 | $7,700 | 17.6 | -2.3 | 20.3 | 0.3 | 0.87 | 14.9% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Carmelo Anthony, Paul George (Cash), Steven Adams (DK)
Secondary Plays – Paul George (GPP), Steven Adams (FD), Russell Westbrook, Corey Brewer
Utah Jazz
The Jazz are looking for their third win in a row in this series. This is an extremely important game for both teams, as I expect the winner to ultimately be the team that advances. If the Jazz win, they are up 3-1 with Game 6 at home. If the Thunder win, the series is tied at two games with two of the last three being played in Oklahoma City. The Jazz have an implied total of 106.5 points, which is the second highest of the slate and two points above their season average.
Ricky Rubio has been terrific in this series. He posted a triple-double in Game 3 and has averaged 48 fantasy points per game. He’s going to be the chalk tonight, but he’s a tough fade at a price point in the mid-$7,000 range. If he was $8,500, it would be a different story. I plan to eat the Rubio chalk, even in tournaments. Rubio’s solid play has overshadowed Donovan Mitchell, who is having a great series himself. In three games, he is averaging 38 minutes and 44 fantasy points per game. He’s also an elite play in all formats and you can certainly pair the two Jazz guards together. Joe Ingles looked lost in the first two games of the series, but bounced back with 32 fantasy points in Game 3. He’s one of my favorite tournament plays of the slate.
Derrick Favors is a little more expensive tonight (at least on DraftKings), but he has averaged 31 fantasy points per game in this series. He’s a safe bet to play minutes in the low 30s and he can rack up fantasy production in a number of ways. Rudy Gobert is my favorite center on the board. Even though Steven Adams is a great defender, there are few centers in basketball that fill up the stat sheet as well as Gobert. He could easily play 38-40 minutes tonight and for some odd reason, he’s still only $6,900 on DraftKings. I don’t have a ton of interest in anyone off the bench, as the Jazz starters have been logging a ton of minutes here in the playoffs.
Notable Injuries
None
Utah Jazz Offense
Points Per Game: 104.1 (19 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 106.5 (2 of 4)
Projected Point Differential: 2.4 (1 of 4)
Matchup vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
Points Allowed Per Game: 104.4 (10 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.7 (10 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 2.9 (2 of 30)
Pace of Play: 99.2 (15 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | Playoffs +/- | Minutes | Playoffs +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ricky Rubio | $7,400 | $7,500 | $14,400 | 29.0 | 19.0 | 29.3 | 5.2 | 0.99 | 21.8% | 12 | 8 | 5 |
| Donovan Mitchell | $8,200 | $7,800 | $16,200 | 33.2 | 10.7 | 33.4 | 4.1 | 0.99 | 25.8% | 22 | 24 | 20 |
| Joe Ingles | $6,300 | $5,700 | $12,200 | 25.7 | -7.6 | 31.4 | 1.2 | 0.82 | 15.7% | 14 | 7 | 9 |
| Derrick Favors | $5,600 | $6,000 | $11,600 | 27.2 | 4.1 | 28.0 | 5.7 | 0.97 | 16.2% | 15 | 10 | 25 |
| Rudy Gobert | $8,100 | $6,900 | $14,500 | 35.8 | 2.4 | 32.4 | 4.1 | 1.11 | 14.0% | 2 | 3 | 17 |
| Jae Crowder | $4,200 | $4,100 | $8,000 | 18.0 | -1.7 | 26.1 | -2.8 | 0.69 | 15.4% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Dante Exum | $3,600 | $3,200 | $6,500 | 16.0 | -8.0 | 16.8 | -3.4 | 0.95 | 21.2% | N/A | N/A | N/A |