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NBA Grind Down: Monday, April 25th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2016-04-26 03:27:33

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

Every game is also broken down by our NBA experts, providing an overview of the game and a selection of players to consider from each contest.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

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Miami Heat at Charlotte Hornets – 7:00 PM

Miami Heat Charlotte Hornets
miaminba Vegas Total 195.5 charlottenba Vegas Total 195.5
Vegas Sprd 2.0 Vegas Sprd -2.0
Team Proj. 96.8 Team Proj. 98.8
Team Pace 95.70 Team Pace 97.80
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Goran Dragic Dwyane Wade Joe Johnson Luol Deng Hassan Whiteside Proj. Starter Kemba Walker Courtney Lee Marvin Williams Frank Kaminsky Al Jefferson
Opp. Season 10 14 18 23 16 Opp. Season 1 4 12 3 8
Last 3 Weeks 5 18 11 23 19 Last 3 Weeks 3 15 1 2 26

Miami Heat

Record: 48-34 — Road: 20-21 — Last 10: 6-4

The Heat fell short in Game 3 against the Hornets, as they couldn’t seem to buy a bucket in the second half. The Heat would love to pick up a win tonight and head back to Miami with a 3-1 advantage in the series. They are listed as 2-point underdogs in a game that features a total of 195.5 points. The Heat are projected to score 96.8 points, which is the second lowest team total on the board. Hassan Whiteside missed practice with a thigh injury. He is expected to play, but is officially listed as a game-time decision.

Elite Plays

Dwyane Wade
dwyane-wade-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$7,600 Salary:$7,300
Position:SG Position:SG
FP/Min:1.04 FP/Min:1.09
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 30.5 31.0 0.5 30.6 0.1
FPPG (FD) 31.6 31.5 -0.1 27.0 -4.6
TO-Adj. Usage 26.8 25.1 -1.7 24.6 -2.2

Wade didn’t play great in Game 3, but he is still one of my favorite plays on the board. He is slightly more expensive than C.J. McCollum, but I give the advantage to Wade if you are deciding between the two. He should see around 35 minutes tonight against a Batum-less Hornets’ team that was ranked 14th against shooting guards during the regular season.

Secondary Plays

Luol Deng
luol-deng-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$6,600 Salary:$6,400
Position:PF Position:SF
FP/Min:0.75 FP/Min:0.81
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 32.4 34.9 2.5 35.3 2.9
FPPG (FD) 24.2 28.0 3.8 24.4 0.2
TO-Adj. Usage 15.0 15.5 0.5 13.8 -1.2

Deng has really played well in this series, scoring at least 28 fantasy points in each of the first three games. He arguably has the best matchup of any starter, as the Hornets are ranked 28th against power forwards. I do worry about his efficiency though, if his shot isn’t falling, he could put up a dud tonight. For that reason, I see him as a secondary power forward option.

Joe Johnson
joe-johnson-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$4,600 Salary:$4,400
Position:SF Position:SF
FP/Min:0.66 FP/Min:0.71
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 33.4 32.4 -1.0 32.0 -1.4
FPPG (FD) 22.2 21.7 -0.4 23.3 1.1
TO-Adj. Usage 15.6 16.6 1.1 18.4 2.9

Johnson has not played well in this series, but his price is affordable and he should see around 35 minutes of action tonight. His usage rate hasn’t been all that high in this series, but he is certainly capable of taking over a game offensively. He is a viable punt option at small forward.

Justise Winslow
justise-winslow-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$3,500 Salary:$3,300
Position:SF Position:SF
FP/Min:0.56 FP/Min:0.60
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 28.6 27.2 -1.4 23.6 -5.0
FPPG (FD) 16.1 15.4 -0.7 14.9 -1.2
TO-Adj. Usage 10.1 11.8 1.7 10.2 0.1

Winslow has struggled with his shot in this series, but he has managed to score around 14 fantasy points per game. That’s not great for a player at his price point, but he’s not going to kill your lineups with that type of production. At close to minimum salary, he is a viable punt at small forward.

Charlotte Hornets

Record: 48-34 — Home: 30-11 — Last 10: 7-3

The Hornets picked up a much needed win in Game 3. If they can grab another victory tonight, they will tie the series up at two games a piece. The Hornets are listed as 2-point favorites tonight with an implied team total of 98.8 points. Nicolas Batum said that his was feeling better, but he has already been ruled out of tonight’s game. Frank Kaminsky will likely draw another start with Marvin Williams sliding over to small forward. Jeremy Lin and Kemba Walker also see a nice minutes and/or usage boost with Batum out.

Elite Plays

Kemba Walker
kemba-walker-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$8,000 Salary:$8,100
Position:PG Position:PG
FP/Min:1.01 FP/Min:1.07
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 35.6 33.0 -2.6 30.4 -5.2
FPPG (FD) 36.0 33.8 -2.1 33.0 -3.0
TO-Adj. Usage 23.1 23.1 0.0 22.7 -0.4

There are three point guards that I want to roster tonight – Walker, Paul, and Lillard. It’s going to be difficult deciding between the three, but Walker may be my favorite of the bunch when you factor in their salaries. He plays well at home and should see a nice usage boost with Nicolas Batum out. Walker managed to score 35 fantasy points in Game 3, despite shooting 4-of-19 from the floor. Look for him to convert more of his chances tonight.

Al Jefferson
al-jefferson-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$5,800 Salary:$5,300
Position:C Position:C
FP/Min:1.04 FP/Min:1.08
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 23.3 22.5 -0.8 23.6 0.3
FPPG (FD) 24.1 28.2 4.0 30.8 6.6
TO-Adj. Usage 21.1 22.9 1.8 24.4 3.3

Jefferson has played well in this series and is projected to start tonight in Game 4. He was well on his way to a monster outing in Game 3, but was only asked to play 20 minutes in the blowout win. If tonight’s game stays close, Jefferson could see around 30 minutes of action. He is my favorite center target on the board tonight and would see an even bigger boost if Hassan Whiteside is unable to suit up.

Jeremy Lin
jeremy-lin-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$4,700 Salary:$5,100
Position:SG Position:PG
FP/Min:0.78 FP/Min:0.85
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 26.3 28.6 2.3 28.3 2.0
FPPG (FD) 20.5 23.4 2.9 22.3 1.7
TO-Adj. Usage 18.2 16.4 -1.7 16.9 -1.3

Lin came off the bench in Game 3, but he would have played starter’s minutes if the game didn’t turn into a blowout. He played 26 minutes and score 31 fantasy points. With Nicolas Batum out again tonight, look for Lin to top the 30 minute mark. He is an elite play in all league formats, especially on FanDuel where he is listed as a shooting guard.

Secondary Plays

Courtney Lee
courtney-lee-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$3,800 Salary:$4,000
Position:SG Position:SG
FP/Min:0.59 FP/Min:0.62
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 29.6 31.8 2.2 27.1 -2.5
FPPG (FD) 17.5 19.3 1.8 15.4 -2.1
TO-Adj. Usage 12.6 12.1 -0.5 11.5 -1.1

Lee is one of those players that can play 40 minutes and score 12 fantasy points. In fact, he has scored under 20 fantasy points in each of the last two games, despite playing 42 minutes in each contest. With Nicolas Batum out, look for Lee to crack the 40 minute mark again tonight. He is a low-risk punt play tonight in Game 4.

Frank Kaminsky
frank-kaminsky-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$3,700 Salary:$3,400
Position:PF Position:C
FP/Min:0.74 FP/Min:0.78
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 21.1 22.0 0.9 23.0 1.9
FPPG (FD) 15.5 17.2 1.7 20.9 5.4
TO-Adj. Usage 14.6 14.8 0.2 16.9 2.3

I expect Kaminsky to be a popular value play tonight. He broke out in Game 3, scoring 28 fantasy points in 35 minutes of action. I’m not completely sold just yet though, as he only scored 12 fantasy points combined in the first two games of the series. He offers good value at this price, but don’t expect a repeat of Game 3.

Dallas Mavericks at Oklahoma City Thunder – 8:00 PM

Dallas Mavericks Oklahoma City Thunder
dallasnba Vegas Total 205.5 oklahomacitynba Vegas Total 205.5
Vegas Sprd 14.5 Vegas Sprd -14.5
Team Proj. 95.5 Team Proj. 110.0
Team Pace 96.40 Team Pace 99.40
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Jose Juan Barea Raymond Felton Wesley Matthews Dirk Nowitzki Zaza Pachulia Proj. Starter Russell Westbrook Andre Roberson Kevin Durant Serge Ibaka Steven Adams
Opp. Season 16 21 13 7 4 Opp. Season 11 11 9 25 17
Last 3 Weeks 6 20 26 5 5 Last 3 Weeks 2 14 16 3 10

Dallas Mavericks

Record: 42-40 — Road: 19-22 — Last 10: 7-3

The Mavericks were unable to pick up a win in their two home games and will now need to beat the Thunder in Oklahoma City to extend the series. They are basically an aging team that is playing on tired (and injured) legs. The Mavericks are listed as 14.5-point underdogs in tonight’s Game 5. They are only projected to score 95.5 points, which gives them the lowest team total and the lowest projected point differential. Deron Williams and David Lee have both been ruled out of tonight’s game and of the rest of the series. J.J. Barea is listed as probable, but has been hampered by a groin injury. Salah Mejri is listed as a game-time decision with a hip injury.

Elite Plays

Raymond Felton
raymond-felton-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$6,000 Salary:$6,000
Position:PG Position:SG
FP/Min:0.72 FP/Min:0.78
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 27.4 29.3 1.9 28.8 1.4
FPPG (FD) 19.6 22.9 3.3 25.6 5.9
TO-Adj. Usage 15.8 18.7 2.9 21.2 5.4

Felton has been the main reason why the Mavericks have been at least a little competitive in this series. In the last three games, he has scored 37, 32, and 38 fantasy points. With Deron Williams out and J.J. Barea nursing a groin injury, Felton will likely be the primary playmaker again tonight. He is the top target on the Mavericks tonight.

Secondary Plays

Dirk Nowitzki
dirk-nowitzki-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$7,000 Salary:$6,300
Position:PF Position:PF
FP/Min:0.97 FP/Min:1.02
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 31.5 32.3 0.8 31.9 0.4
FPPG (FD) 30.4 25.2 -5.2 28.0 -2.4
TO-Adj. Usage 22.0 21.5 -0.5 18.9 -3.1

Nowitzki is coming off of two great games in a row, scoring 37 and 40 fantasy points. He seems to be playing on tired legs, but we can expect him to play all of the minutes that he can handle tonight. That of course is assuming that the game stays close. Nowitzki makes a nice GPP play in Game 5, but there are safer cash game targets.

Wesley Matthews
wesley-matthews-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$4,900 Salary:$4,900
Position:SG Position:SG
FP/Min:0.60 FP/Min:0.66
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 33.9 37.9 4.0 38.8 4.9
FPPG (FD) 20.4 22.4 2.0 20.2 -0.2
TO-Adj. Usage 14.8 14.8 0.0 14.1 -0.7

Matthews hasn’t played great in this series, but he did have a 35 fantasy point outburst in Game 3. He is still dirt cheap across the industry and he could see upwards of 40 minutes tonight if the Mavericks can keep this game close. He is a borderline elite play in both cash games and tournaments.

Zaza Pachulia
zaza-pachulia-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$3,800 Salary:$3,800
Position:C Position:C
FP/Min:0.87 FP/Min:0.92
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 26.4 22.6 -3.8 23.9 -2.5
FPPG (FD) 23.0 15.1 -7.9 16.8 -6.2
TO-Adj. Usage 12.9 8.1 -4.7 8.5 -4.3

This pick hinges on the availability of Salah Mejri. David Lee has already been ruled out of this game and if Mejri joins him, Pachulia could end up playing 30+ minutes. I still wouldn’t trust him in cash games, but he would provide nice upside for a tournament.

Oklahoma City Thunder

Record: 55-27 — Home: 32-9 — Last 10: 5-5

The Thunder picked up two big wins in Dallas to take a commanding 3-1 lead in this series. They can advance to the second round tonight with a win. The Thunder are 14.5-point favorites with an implied team total of 110 points. They have the highest team total on the board and the second highest projected point differential. While this is a great spot for the Thunder offense as a whole, the possibility of a blowout is high. Enes Kanter is a nice GPP play tonight, but I prefer Al Jefferson and Mason Plumlee at similar price points.

Elite Plays

Russell Westbrook
russell-westbrook-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$10,600 Salary:$11,000
Position:PG Position:PG
FP/Min:1.42 FP/Min:1.56
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 34.4 33.1 -1.3 29.3 -5.1
FPPG (FD) 48.8 46.9 -1.9 43.5 -5.2
TO-Adj. Usage 28.3 27.7 -0.7 25.9 -2.5

Westbrook has scored at least 43 fantasy points in every game so far in this series. He is coming off of his best game of the four, scoring 55 fantasy points on Saturday night. He remains the top overall play on the board, but I’d probably rank him fourth at his position dollar for dollar. Walker, Paul, and Lillard all provide similar upside at a much bigger discount.

Kevin Durant
kevin-durant-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$10,000 Salary:$10,000
Position:SF Position:SF
FP/Min:1.30 FP/Min:1.39
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 35.8 34.7 -1.1 32.2 -3.6
FPPG (FD) 46.4 47.8 1.3 47.4 1.0
TO-Adj. Usage 26.3 30.2 3.9 30.8 4.5

Durant has had two awful games in this series. After his awful shooting performance in Game 2, he bounced back with 45 fantasy points in Game 3. After struggling in Game 4, I’m expecting another bounce-back effort tonight. The main issue here is that the Thunder are huge favorites and could end up sitting their starters if the game gets out of hand.

Secondary Plays

Serge Ibaka
serge-ibaka-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$5,900 Salary:$6,000
Position:PF Position:PF
FP/Min:0.79 FP/Min:0.85
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 32.1 30.0 -2.1 28.3 -3.8
FPPG (FD) 25.4 25.6 0.3 21.6 -3.8
TO-Adj. Usage 14.8 15.9 1.1 16.5 1.6

Ibaka continued his consistent play in this series. He has now scored at least 24 fantasy points in every game so far. He should be a popular play at power forward tonight, thanks to the lack of options at the position. He is a borderline elite play in all league formats.

Los Angeles Clippers at Portland Trail Blazers – 8:30 PM

Los Angeles Clippers Portland Trail Blazers
laclippersnba Vegas Total 205.5 portlandnba Vegas Total 205.5
Vegas Sprd -3.5 Vegas Sprd 3.5
Team Proj. 104.5 Team Proj. 101.0
Team Pace 98.00 Team Pace 98.30
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Chris Paul J.J. Redick Luc Richard Mbah a Moute Blake Griffin DeAndre Jordan Proj. Starter Damian Lillard C.J. McCollum Al-Farouq Aminu Maurice Harkless Mason Plumlee
Opp. Season 24 18 4 22 27 Opp. Season 5 3 8 13 12
Last 3 Weeks 22 6 10 24 30 Last 3 Weeks 7 1 7 26 2

Los Angeles Clippers

Record: 53-29 — Road: 24-17 — Last 10: 8-2

The Clippers fell short in Game 3 against the Blazers, but still hold a 2-1 lead in the series. They are listed as 3.5-point favorites tonight in Game 4 in what may be the top game to target for fantasy production. The Clippers are projected to score 104.5 points, which gives them the second highest team total and the highest projected point differential. J.J. Redick is a decent GPP play, but I prefer Wesley Matthews and Courtney Lee at similar price points. DeAndre Jordan is also a nice GPP play that should get overlooked at center.

Elite Plays

Chris Paul
chris-paul-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$9,800 Salary:$9,600
Position:PG Position:PG
FP/Min:1.27 FP/Min:1.37
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 32.7 28.4 -4.3 28.7 -4.0
FPPG (FD) 41.6 40.6 -1.1 31.8 -9.9
TO-Adj. Usage 24.9 26.0 1.1 19.5 -5.4

Paul has scored at least 42 fantasy points in each of the first three games in this series. The Blazers struggled to contain point guards during the regular season and that trend has continued into the postseason. Paul is the safest play on the Clippers tonight and deserves to be considered an elite play in both cash games and tournaments. I actually expect his ownership to be lower than Walker’s and Lillard’s.

Secondary Plays

Blake Griffin
blake-griffin-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$8,800 Salary:$8,200
Position:PF Position:PF
FP/Min:1.17 FP/Min:1.22
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 33.4 24.5 -8.9 27.1 -6.3
FPPG (FD) 39.0 25.3 -13.8 33.3 -5.7
TO-Adj. Usage 25.5 20.9 -4.5 23.7 -1.8

Griffin hasn’t reached value in each of the last two games, scoring only 27 and 28 fantasy points. He still has massive upside, but he does seem a bit overpriced. The one plus is that power forward is awfully thin, which means we aren’t going to be too comfortable with anyone at the position.

Portland Trail Blazers

Record: 44-38 — Home: 28-13 — Last 10: 7-3

The Blazers picked up a win in Game 3 and now have a chance to even the series up tonight. Even though they are small underdogs tonight, this is one of the few series left that has the potential to go to seven games. The Blazers are projected to score 101 points, which gives them the third highest team total on the board. I also want to note that Terry Stotts really tightened his rotation in Game 3, playing every starter at least 31 minutes. You can make a case for all five Blazers’ starters tonight. C.J. McCollum and Maurice Harkless are both nice GPP plays, but I will be looking elsewhere in cash games.

Elite Plays

Damian Lillard
damian-lillard-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$8,100 Salary:$8,300
Position:PG Position:PG
FP/Min:1.10 FP/Min:1.20
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 35.7 33.5 -2.2 33.9 -1.8
FPPG (FD) 39.4 32.4 -7.0 37.9 -1.5
TO-Adj. Usage 27.6 26.3 -1.3 28.6 1.1

Lillard finally broke out of his slump in Game 3, scoring 36 fantasy points in 37 minutes of action. While that doesn’t seem great, he actually scored 32 actual points and just failed to provide much else in terms of peripheral statistics. The Blazers absolutely need another win tonight and I expect Lillard to come out firing.

Mason Plumlee
mason-plumlee-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$5,900 Salary:$5,600
Position:C Position:C
FP/Min:0.96 FP/Min:1.03
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 25.4 25.1 -0.3 26.4 1.0
FPPG (FD) 24.3 27.4 3.1 30.6 6.2
TO-Adj. Usage 14.2 15.2 1.0 14.0 -0.2

I really wanted to buy in on Plumlee after he had that monster outing in Game 2. However, Terry Stotts has failed to give him extended minutes all season and I wasn’t expecting him to play 33 minutes in Game 3. Plumlee has earned more playing time, as he has scored 45 fantasy points in each of his last two games. He is right there with Al Jefferson as the top target at center tonight.

Secondary Plays

Al-Farouq Aminu
al-farouq-aminu-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$5,500 Salary:$5,200
Position:SF Position:SF
FP/Min:0.75 FP/Min:0.83
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 28.5 28.7 0.2 29.2 0.7
FPPG (FD) 21.5 26.6 5.1 23.9 2.4
TO-Adj. Usage 14.3 15.5 1.2 14.2 -0.1

Aminu is another Blazers’ player that has seen a major minutes boost in the postseason. He has played 35 minutes in back to back games and he has now scored at least 20 fantasy points in all three games so far. He is a viable small forward target in both cash games and GPPs tonight.

About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious